The Western Conference's Potential Party Crashers

Daniel Waddleton

Mar 24, 2025

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IT WOULD BE a dream come true for the NBA and its TV partners to see a second round featuring some combination of the Thunder, Lakers, Nuggets, and Warriors out West.

From a seeding perspective, it’s on the table. From a talent perspective, it’s even more likely. These are the top four teams in chances to win the Western Conference according to FanDuel’s sportsbook's odds.

However, emerging from the shadows, quietly lurking below the play-in line, is a team we've seen crash the playoff party before.

A team many left for dead after a turbulent start to the season, some citing a questionable offseason trade, others dismissing last year’s postseason success as a fluke.

A team whose bruising, physical style sent last year’s title favorites home in the second round, leaving the defending champs wondering if they were dropped in a street fight dressed like a basketball game.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have risen from the ashes, and they are coming for blood.

Minnesota is currently in the middle of a 9–2 run, sitting at a season-best 10 games over .500. During that stretch, they rank second in the league in net rating and have climbed to sixth on the season overall. A team that entered the new year at just 17–15 -- with more questions than answers -- is suddenly finding its identity at the perfect time.

And if you’re a top seed in the Western Conference… you’re likely hoping you don’t draw this pack of Wolves in round one.

THIS PIECE AIMS to unpack what makes Minnesota so dangerous, even if the standings don’t suggest it. There’s no better place to start than their success against the NBA’s elite. When facing a top-ten team in net rating, three teams have truly separated themselves: Boston, Oklahoma City, and Cleveland, each boasting a +6 or better net rating in those matchups. The only other team with a positive mark? Minnesota, at +1.7.

Minnesota’s ability to rise to the level of their competition stems from their defense. More specifically, the relentless ball pressure and physicality they can issue on that end. Few teams can match the Wolves’ tenacity.

Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are two of the best in the league at applying full-court pressure -- long enough to constantly bother the ball, quick enough to navigate screens and stay attached when playing that high.

Anthony Edwards has his lapses, particularly off the ball, where his awareness can dip under the weight of his offensive workload. But when locked in, he’s a devastating on-ball defender -- capable of shutting down elite perimeter scorers when his team needs it most. I sure hope nobody forgot what he did to Jamal Murray in Game 7 last season.

Even some of the newer faces, like rookies Jaylen Clark or Terrence Shannon Jr., have already made an impact defensively with their on-ball pressure. Everywhere you look, the Wolves have players eager to pick you up 94 feet and harass you for the full 48 minutes.

Behind all that pressure? One of the best rim protectors the league has ever seen. Rudy Gobert -- even at age 32, past his peak -- remains elite around the rim. Over the past two seasons, opponents are shooting 10.5% worse than expected at the rim when he's the contesting defender, a mark that ranks in the 96th percentile leaguewide. It's not shocking that with Gobert on the floor this season, Minnesota is allowing just 108.6 points per 100 possessions.

You have to love a defense without any clear “entry points.” Even players you might not immediately associate with high-level defense -- like Donte DiVincenzo or Julius Randle -- bring skill sets that make them assets in this system.

DiVincenzo is a capable on-ball defender, especially in this complementary role. Randle, while another player who's occasional lapses leave something to be desired, brings a strength and physicality that allows Minnesota to deploy him in versatile ways.

In a playoff series -- when the refs let more physicality go and the game slows to a grinding halt -- few teams are better equipped to thrive than Minnesota. We saw this last postseason, where their defense lived up to the billing. It was the offense that ultimately fell short in the Western Conference Finals.

Dallas’ combination of elite rim protection and the personnel to execute a smarter, more disciplined game plan were two things neither Phoenix nor Denver could throw at Minnesota. That strategy -- challenging Anthony Edwards to beat them as a playmaker -- was ultimately enough to send the Wolves home.

Now the evolution of Edwards’ game this season offers a glimpse at something different: a team that may now be better equipped to counter that kind of approach.

Edwards has taken real steps forward this year, none more obvious than the rise in his three-point volume and efficiency. He’s averaging career highs in both attempts (10.1 per game) and percentage (40%). The only other players in NBA history to hit those marks simultaneously? Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

The difference is that Curry and Klay generated a ton of their looks via off-ball movement and spacing off each other. Edwards, for better or worse, is getting his threes almost exclusively through self-creation, off the bounce. His step-back and pull-up shooting has turned him into a player that creates James Harden like problems to defend when you factor in his explosive first step and ability to pressure the rim.

He’s taking 7.5 pull-up threes per game and hitting them at a 39.7% clip -- comparable to Damian Lillard’s peak offensive season in 2020 or Stephen Curry’s near-MVP 2021 campaign. Like I said, it’s made Ant Houston Harden-level difficult to defend one-on-one.

Now, if defenders want to sag off in isolation or teams play drop coverage in an attempt funnel him into rim protectors, they’re almost playing into his strength, giving him clean pull-up looks from three. The only real counter is to play him high with strong gap help behind in isolation, and blitz him in pick-and-rolls, forcing him to become a playmaker.

That was the blueprint Dallas used, and it worked. But this season, Edwards has shown real growth in that area too. For one, he talked about studying Luka Doncic in the offseason, paying attention to the reads Luka makes when blitzed or doubled on drives.

In this clip, he gets doubled moving to his right. Instead of panicking with a forced drive or rushed outlet pass, he recognizes that Luka Garza is setting a backscreen on Austin Reaves -- the defender eventually responsible for rotating over -- and calmly delivers a sharp skip pass to the weak side for an open three.

This is the kind of play where Edwards might’ve forced up a tough shot in the past just because he got near the rim. Instead, he shows patience, hangs in the air, makes the right read, and skips it to the wing rather than the corner, recognizing DiVincenzo as the better shooting option. The result? An easy three for a guy hitting nearly 40% from deep.

As much as Edwards has shown real growth as a playmaker, I also think there's simply more trust in his teammates right now. The shooting around him was rough early in the season, but it’s improved significantly. DiVincenzo’s return added a legitimate sniper to the rotation, and McDaniels has started knocking down shots consistently. As a result, Edwards no longer feels like every possession has to start and end with him, and that shift has made the entire offense more fluid.

Since the calendar flipped to 2025, the Timberwolves rank third in the league in three-point percentage at 38.5% on nearly 40 attempts per game. Sure, some of that is Edwards morphing into Damian Lillard from deep, but the rest of the roster is holding up their end too.

Speaking of spacing, one of the most intriguing developments in this stretch has been the Julius Randle fit -- a key piece Minnesota needed to solve in order to be a real playoff threat.

Karl-Anthony Towns was clearly not being optimized as a four offensively next to Gobert last season, but his elite shooting allowed the offense to work regardless. Randle doesn’t bring that same shooting threat, so finding a way for him to coexist with Gobert was critical.

They've appeared to figure it out.

Since January 22nd, the Wolves are 14–2 in games Randle has played. In those 16 games, the Randle-Gobert frontcourt has posted a 121.5 offensive rating in 194 minutes, a massive jump from the 111.6 mark they held in 873 minutes prior to that date. That'll be more then enough, considering defensively they have posted a 107.5 defensive rating during the 16 game stretch.

The key has been court mapping. Randle is left-hand dominant, preferring to attack from the left side and finish with his left. So the Wolves place Gobert on the right side's deep dunkers spot, making it harder for his defender to help at the rim. Even when they are able to time it up right, Randle’s finishing with his off-hand away from the contest.

This forces teams to help from elsewhere when Randle is playing bully ball. When this happens, Randle just has to make these simple reads to find open shooters. When Minnesota is hitting from deep, they are going to be tough to guard.

The question you're probably asking: what do players like Conley and Edwards, who are best offensively with the ball, do during these lineups? Well, lucky for them Randle is a strong screener, and they’ve started running more empty-side pick-and-rolls with Conley or Edwards while the rest of the floor is mapped as if it’s a Randle post-up.

The Wolves have simplified the offense when Randle’s on the floor, and it’s paying off. As his offensive confidence has grown, it’s bled into his defense. He’s embraced the team’s junkyard dog mentality and become a versatile tool for head coach Chris Finch. While he still primarily guards opposing forwards, his strength and low center of gravity allow him to take on center assignments, freeing up Gobert to roam. Randle has defended centers on over 27% of his defensive possessions this season.

During this run, Minnesota has seemed to have found some playoff-ready lineups. The Conley–Edwards–McDaniels–Randle–Gobert group has been their most-used during this 9–2 stretch and holds a +20.5 net rating.

What I think is their best lineup including Edwards–DiVincenzo–McDaniels–Randle–Gobert has posted an absurd +47.3 net rating during this stretch. That’s in just 28 minutes, so the sample is small, but it shows the potential.

There’s also one more ingredient to this Wolves cake that I haven’t even mentioned yet. Saving the best for last, might I say?

The final piece of the puzzle is reigning Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid, the biggest swing piece on the roster.

Reid gives the Wolves flexibility depending on the matchup. If Randle struggles against a physical frontcourt, Reid -- who can still self create but is a more natural stretch four -- can step in without sacrificing any offensive punch. If Gobert becomes a liability in a five-out series, Reid can slide to the five, and while the rim protection will take a hit, the offense transforms into a full-blown spread-and-attack machine.

He’s having a career year across the board: 14.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game, along with a team-best +7.8 on/off split -- a number reflecting just how much he means to this team, consistently coming off the bench and giving them exactly what they’re missing.

I'VE BEEN SAYING I’m “Wolves Curious” for over a month now -- almost as a playful joke. It's not a joke anymore. This team has a real shot to reach the Western Conference Finals again.

Denver is probably praying to the basketball gods that they avoid this matchup, because it’s been ugly over and over again for them against Minnesota.

Even a team like OKC who is, and should be, the favorite out West has had their fair share of trouble with the Wolves this season.

The only team I’d consider “Wolves Proof” in the Western Conference is Los Angeles. Like we saw in last year’s West Finals, Luka Doncic is the one guard in the NBA who’s just too big for defenders like McDaniels or Alexander-Walker to bother. He’s also a pick-and-roll maestro who absolutely dissected Gobert in those actions last postseason. Between him, LeBron -- another strong, oversized creator Minnesota may not be able to handle -- and Austin Reaves, the Lakers have three high-level initiators who can create offense for themselves and others.

Combine that with a supporting cast full of big, physical wings, and I think LA would be able to out execute Minnesota.

Yet even in that series? You know the Wolves wouldn’t blink. This team fears nobody. Outside of Jaxson Hayes the Lakers have very little rim protection on the roster. Edwards would have a field day.

I’ve gone from Wolves Curious to Wolves Confident.