The NBA Cup Returns!
- danny52615
- Nov 12, 2024
- 8 min read
Updated: Feb 13
Daniel Waddleton
Nov 12, 2024
AFTER WHAT I personally thought was a major success in its inaugural season, the NBA's once-called In-Season Tournament—now Emirates NBA Cup—is set to begin its second run tonight. We’re back to vibrant court designs, acceptable scoreboard running, and some high-intensity basketball.
Last season, fans enjoyed the excitement of high-stakes basketball so early in the year, and it seemed many players bought into the competition as well. Beyond the $500,000 cash prize per player for the winning team, the chance to play for a trophy and a “championship” seemed to resonate with players.
Here are some player quotes highlighting the heightened intensity during last season’s NBA Cup games.
"The in-season tournament is probably the first time that I'm really competing to win a championship on the NBA level. I've never made the playoffs or anything, so right here it gives me the chance to be able to do that, and that's exciting for me" - Pacers Guard Tyrese Haliburton
"We talk about this In-Season Tournament, and it’s a playoff game. It was a fun game to play in. The intensity level was there. So, job well done to the NBA" - Warriors Forward Draymond Green
"The games are competitive early on. We’re in week 2 or 3 and we already have kind of a playoff-like atmosphere" - Kings Forward Keegan Murray
Here's some additional quotes about players discussing the prize money as a real incentive in these games.
It feels great because it’s an In-Season Tournament win. And we’ll take that, we’ll take that for sure. There’s $500,000 on the line – so we’re goin’ for that. We’re goin’ for that. - Lakers Forward LeBron James
"But I think as a leader and somebody who cares about your teammates, especially your younger teammates. You got guys on two-way contracts, guys who are trying to earn a stay, and you know, that prize, in the end, could be, it could change their family's lives, and I think you don't want to, you know, make everything about money, but that's something that we can do for people around us, our coaches," - Bucks Guard Damian Lillard
I think the NBA absolutely hit the nail on the head with this concept.
How The Schedule Works
When designing the in-season tournament, the goal was to keep it within the natural flow of the NBA season but elevate the stakes enough to capture both players' and fans' attention during the early-season lull.
I think the scheduling was spot-on. By holding NBA Cup games every Tuesday and Friday as part of the regular NBA schedule and having them count towards the tournament standings, it feels like a seamless addition to the season. The NBA is also bringing back the unique courts for each team when playing in these games. While the courts might be unconventional, they make it clear that this isn’t just another regular season matchup.
Lastly, I love how the final four teams compete in Las Vegas. Hosting the semifinals and finals at a neutral site allows NBA fans and media to come together, creating an event-like atmosphere around the tournament’s conclusion. It’s reminiscent of College Basketball’s March Madness Final Four, where reaching the destination alone feels like an achievement, with teams then battling it out for the title. This setup adds prestige and significance, making it feel like a true culminating event for the season's first half.
For teams that don’t advance past the group stage, the NBA has strategically left a week of the season unscheduled during the knockout round. This allows the 22 non-advancing teams to play two additional games that week. Over the summer, the NBA scheduled only 80 games per team, reserving the final two games for either knockout-stage matchups for advancing teams or extra games for those not moving forward in the NBA Cup.
It’s also worth noting that the Championship game doesn’t count toward the teams’ regular season records, and stats from that game aren’t tracked, similar to the Play-In games
Notes From Last Season's NBA Cup
As much as I enjoyed the NBA Cup last season, one issue I had was with the tiebreaker rules in the Group Stage. Currently, if teams have tied records, the tiebreaker goes to the team with the superior point differential in Group Stage games. With each team playing only four games, ties were fairly common last season, leading to situations where teams actively tried to run up the score.
A prime example was the Warriors vs. Kings game on the last night of the group stage last year. The Warriors needed not just a win, but a win by at least 13 points to advance, essentially creating a real life point spread within the game itself. This dynamic, while interesting, seems to be a very flawed system.
A scenario where a team racks up a 35-point win against an opponent dealing with numerous injuries—and effectively securing every tiebreaker in the process—feels like the opposite of the idea with this tiebreaker. While I don’t have a perfect alternative to point differential as a tiebreaker, one possible solution could be to cap the margin at 15 or 20 points. In this system, any win beyond a 15/20-point margin would be considered irrelevant for tiebreak purposes, reducing the incentive to run up the score unnecessarily, or benefit from playing a "bubble wrap" version of one of your groups teams.
. . .
The Los Angeles Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup last season, driven by a dominant LeBron James and Anthony Davis. This tournament format favored some top-heavy teams last season, likely because opponents don’t have the luxury of time to prepare and gameplan for star players as they would in a traditional playoff series.
Also unlike the grueling 16-win marathon of the playoffs, the NBA Cup is a sprint, allowing a veteran like LeBron to go all-out without pacing himself, which ultimately earned him the NBA Cup MVP award last season.
. . .
This tournament can also serve as a springboard to relevance within NBA media. Take last season’s example with the Indiana Pacers: they were initially scheduled for only six national TV games. However, Tyrese Haliburton used the NBA Cup as his stage, averaging an impressive 26.7 points and 13.3 assists per game throughout the tournament. His standout performances in these additional nationally televised games with real stakes behind them helped elevate his profile within the league. To this day, Haliburton still feels the impact of that breakout run, which solidified him as a prominent name in the NBA.
Speaking of standout performances, last season's All-NBA Cup team featured:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Notably, each of these players advanced to the knockout stage, suggesting that making it that far may be a prerequisite for these honors.
. . .
My final note would be that it wasn’t just the players and fans treating these games with added significance last season—the coaches did too. Some coaches noticeably shortened their rotations and played their starters heavier minutes, leaning into a more intense, playoff-like approach. This was a fun development that I hope continues this season, as it helped create a postseason atmosphere during the early season.
The Groups & Observations
The way the NBA creates the groups, which are divided by conference, is by placing all 15 teams from each conference into five separate pools based on their standings from last season. Pool One consisted of teams that finished 1st to 3rd in the regular season, Pool Two included teams ranked 4th to 6th, Pool Three held teams 7th to 9th, Pool Four included those from 10th to 12th, and Pool Five contained teams that finished 13th to 15th. The results can be seen below, creating our six groups for this years tournament.
East A
New York Knicks / Orlando Magic / Philadelphia 76ers / Brooklyn Nets / Charlotte Hornets
East B
Milwaukee Bucks / Indiana Pacers / Miami Heat / Toronto Raptors / Detroit Pistons
East C
Boston Celtics / Cleveland Cavaliers / Atlanta Hawks / Chicago Bulls / Washington Wizards
West A
Minnesota Timberwolves / Los Angeles Clippers / Sacramento Kings / Houston Rockets / Portland Trail Blazers
West B
Oklahoma City Thunder / Phoenix Suns / Los Angeles Lakers / Utah Jazz / San Antonio Spurs
West C
Denver Nuggets / Dallas Mavericks / New Orleans Pelicans / Golden State Warriors / Memphis Grizzlies
Right away, it’s hard not to notice the strength of Group C in the West. Last season, injuries completely derailed Memphis, leading to a 12th-place finish in the West. Needless to say, now back healthy again they are leaps and bounds better then the Spurs or Trail Blazers, the other Pool Five teams out West.
The Golden State Warriors also had an odd season last year, finishing 10th in the West, but they’re currently 8-2 with a retooled roster around Steph Curry and Draymond Green. They clearly pose a greater threat in this tournament than the Rockets or Jazz, who they shared that Fourth Pool with.
With these five teams competing, every Tuesday and Friday night promises electrifying matchups from West Group C. I’m likely going to be playing Mavericks at +310 as a value bet to win this group.
Another intriguing group in my opinion, is East Group B, where a few underachieving Eastern teams are looking to get back on track as the tournament kicks off. The Bucks, Pacers, and Heat each have a solid chance of winning this group, and it could serve as a springboard for one of them to ignite their season.
NBA Cup Predictions & Favorite Bets
Group Stage
East A: Knicks
East B: Bucks
East C: Cavaliers
WC: Celtics
West A: Rockets
West B: Lakers
West C: Mavericks
WC: Warriors
Knockout Round/Vegas
Celtics over Cavaliers
Knicks over Bucks
Celtics over Knicks
Warriors over Lakers
Mavericks over Rockets
Warriors over Mavericks
Warriors over Celtics
I'm picking the Warriors to win the NBA Cup and am betting on them at +750 to reach the final. This team has impressive depth, meaning they can withstand a night a couple guys are banged up during the group stage, which is crucial. They’ve also already shown an ability to step up in big games this season, like when they went to Boston and defeated an elite Celtics team on ESPN.
In the East, I went mostly chalk in the group stage, aside from maybe Milwaukee, who I believe is poised for a turnaround in their upcoming stretch of games. In the knockout round, we've already seen how challenging the Knicks are as a matchup for the Bucks, and I expect Boston to avenge a group stage loss to Cleveland, defeating them convincingly. Finally, I foresee New York falling short to Boston in a Vegas showdown.
In the West, I opted to get a little more frisky, starting with the defending champion Lakers in a group where Kevin Durant and Chet Holmgren will be absent. I was high on OKC for this tournament, but now without Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, who hasn’t played yet this year, they likely lack the size needed to win four straight.
I also mixed things up by choosing Houston, who, like the Warriors, are a deep and adaptable team capable of managing with multiple players out. Their youth combined with limited team success in the past may fuel them to bring extra energy to these games.
Finally, I picked Dallas to win their group. Having two elite offensive players like Luka and Kyrie gives Dallas a strong edge in a tournament setting, where opponents won’t have multiple games to adjust to their style.
In Vegas, I like a Warriors-Mavericks matchup, where I believe Golden State will prevail. Andrew Wiggins the best he has since 2022 when his defense on Luka Doncic helped the Warriors eliminate Dallas in the playoffs. The Warriors’ high-movement offense could also prove overwhelming for Dallas.
A Celtics-Warriors grand finale would have all the star power and storylines to make for an incredible championship game. While the Celtics may be the stronger team, the Warriors have consistently had their number, and I’ll stick with them here.
Bets I'm Playing
Warriors Reach Finals +750
Mavericks Group C +310
Bucks Group B +165
Rockets Group A +460
Clippers Group A +420
Nikola Jokic Tournament MVP +1100
Jaylen Brown Tournament MVP +1600
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