The MVP Debate

Daniel Waddleton

Mar 27, 2025

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WITH AROUND NINE games left on the schedule for most teams, we can almost taste the postseason. However, before we arrive at the spring classic, there’s one debate that needs to be settled:

Who should win the 2024–25 MVP?

A lot of years, we hear things like, “In any other season, the runner-up would’ve won!” — usually as a polite way to give both candidates their flowers. But this year? That actually might be true. It’s been one of the best MVP races of my lifetime, and a lot closer than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

On one hand, Nikola Jokic might be putting together one of the greatest individual offensive seasons in NBA history. On the other, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the far and away best player on a team that's flirting with 70 wins.

I’ve appreciated how relatively civil the debate has stayed, especially compared to some of the more toxic discourse in past MVP races involving Jokic. Sure, twitter is still a minefield, but for the most part, it hasn’t gotten nasty.

In this piece, I’ll make the case for both leading candidates, framing it as a playful back-and-forth -- like fans going at it in a bar. In the end, I’ll give you my pick with ballots due in less then a month.

Oklahoma City Thunder Fan: I mean… what are we doing here, guys? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player on the best team. A team that might win 70 games, something we haven’t seen since the 2015–16 Warriors. Isn’t that the whole idea of the award? Most valuable player of the season?

Denver Nuggets Fan: Are we giving this to the most valuable player on the best team, or the most valuable player overall? Because from where I’m sitting, nobody’s more valuable than Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are +20.7 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the floor. That’s mind-breaking, and we’re talking about over 2,200 minutes. According to Cleaning the Glass, that equates to a 45-win difference.

OKC: Okay, well Shai's at +8.9 -- still in the 91st percentile leaguewide. That’s impressive considering the Thunder are good around him, which actually makes it harder to post big impact numbers. He’s keeping this offense afloat. When he’s on the floor, OKC scores 123.5 points per 100. When he sits? It drops to 113.5. That’s a 10.1-point swing -- from best offense in the league to 21st. He’s the only elite individual scorer on the floor, giving him a huge creation burden that he thrives in.

DEN: I won’t argue Shai drives that offense, but isn’t Jokic just that… and more? He’s averaging a triple-double: 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists. When he’s on the floor, Denver scores 128.3 points per 100 which would be the best relative offensive rating in NBA history. Without him? It drops to 106.4. That’s an offensive burden we’ve never seen in our lifetime.

OKC: Cool. If we’re trading stats, let’s talk scoring. Shai's having one of the greatest individual scoring seasons ever. Just turn on a game -- that silky smooth handle, his balance and pace, automatic jumper, he looks like a yoyo out there -- he’s unguardable. Shai's averaging 34.6 points per 75 possessions on +6.6 relative true shooting. The only players to top that since 1973? Two Joel Embiid seasons and 2018–19 James Harden.

He’s scoring 129.3 points per 100 shot attempts -- sixth in the league. Most of the guys above him? Role players like Jaxson Hayes or Obi Toppin getting spoon-fed dunks. Did I mention already Shai’s doing this entirely via self-creation. This is high volume efficiency at it's peak performance. I could mention the 6+ assists per night too, but he could average zero and still be the MVP.

DEN: You can keep the assists if we’re being honest -- Shai’s assist-to-usage ratio is 0.80, which is in the 8th percentile. Anybody can catch a couple dimes with that usage rate. If you were wondering by the way, Jokic is at 1.32, in the 97th percentile. Beyond that, Shai’s in a perfect setup. He’s the focal point of the offense on what's been maybe the best defense of the pace and space era. OKC is sixth-best since 2000 in relative defensive rating. That team is loaded. All he has to do is carry them offensively.

Jokic doesn’t have that luxury. Denver’s defense ranks 22nd. He’s doing this without that kind of support on the other end. A huge burden this big fella has.

OKC: First of all, Shai is more than just along for the ride on that defense, he’s a legit contributor. He’s a good on-ball defender with great hands and a real knack for defensive playmaking. He’s averaging 1.7 steals and a block per game. No, he’s not the anchor, but the Thunder still allow just 107.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. If that were their full-season number, it would still lead the league.

Second off, I know a Nuggets fan isn’t coming at anyone about defense. Jokic stinks on that end. Why do you think Denver’s defense is bad? It’s being anchored by Jokic! Cry me a river about your 22nd-ranked defense. When Jokic is on the floor, it’s 117.1 per 100. When he sits? It actually improves to 115.9.

He can’t switch, he’ll get blown by. He can’t drop either, because he’s not a rim protector. So Denver ends up blitzing ball screens, throwing the whole operation into a tailspin on the backside. The team basically lives in rotation with him as the anchor.

DEN: It hasn’t been Jokic’s strongest defensive season, I’ll admit. But he’s still a very smart defender, making a lot of subtle plays throughout the game with his instincts and positioning. Also, while you pointed out the 1.2-point dip in defensive rating with Jokic on the floor… SGA has a nearly identical dip at 1.1. The Thunder’s defense is elite with Shai on the floor, and still elite when he’s off. The Nuggets’ defense is bad with Jokic on… and still bad when he’s off.

That tells me neither guy is really moving the needle defensively. Shai is a neutral defender on an elite defense. Jokic is a neutral defender (maybe slightly negative this season) on a bad one.

OKC: You know what should decide it then? The fact that Jokic already has three MVPs and Shai has zero. Whether your guy deserves it or not, we’re not doing the history of basketball justice if Shai finishes this stretch of his career without one. In most seasons, Shai would be the runaway favorite, so if this race is truly that close? Then legacy should be the tiebreaker.

DEN: That’s a great sob story for the voters… but I’m not handing out pity MVPs. Is Shai the closest competitor to Jokic’s crown since his first one in 2021? Absolutely. I’ve never felt like another player was as deserving as Shai is this season. But he’s still coming in second, pal.

OKC: Fine! I could keep going. SGA leads in Dunks & Threes’ EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus) model -- maybe the best all-in-one advanced stat we have.

DEN: Jokic leads in Backpicks BPM (Box Plus-Minus) model.

OKC: Shai leads in LEBRON (Luck-adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-off) from BB-Index.

DEN: Jokic leads in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) from Basketball Reference.

OKC: Shai leads in WS/48 (Win Shares per 48 Minutes) from Basketball Reference.

DEN: You wanna just go get another drink?

OKC: Yeah, I’m down. We’re both blessed to have the two best players in the world on our teams.

DEN: Agreed, man. Agreed.

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I understand the sentiment behind giving SGA his first, especially when he’s having an all-time scoring season on the best team in basketball. But can we just admit that Jokic is one of the greatest offensive players in NBA history, and it wouldn’t be some stretch for him to earn a fourth MVP?

If all things are equal from a legacy perspective, I lean Jokic. So for now, he’s still my pick on the ballot.