The Bucks Are the NBA's Sleeping Giant

Daniel Waddleton

Dec 18, 2024

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AT ONE POINT this season the Milwaukee Bucks were 2-10, with only the 2-11 Toronto Raptors beneath them in the standings. Their rock bottom came just a game earlier when they fell to 2-9 after a 22-point dismantling at the hands of the New York Knicks on November 8th.

After that loss, Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo addressed the media with an uncharacteristic level of frustration, calling out the team's lack of effort and issuing a warning about the trajectory of their season.

“Teams will not feel bad about us. We have to come out with the mentality that we’ve got to compete for every possession, one possession at a time. We’ve got to do a better job competing. We didn’t compete at all.”

At the time, it felt like just words. The media seemed more interested in speculating about Giannis's potential next team than analyzing Milwaukee’s chances of salvaging their season, let alone competing for another championship with the two-time MVP.

And why wouldn’t they? The team looked uninspired, and even Giannis himself seemed to embody the problem. His effort on defense had waned, far removed from the dominant off-ball presence that earned him a Defensive Player of the Year award in the past.

But those quotes turned out to be more than just words. Giannis’s message wasn’t just for the cameras—he meant it, and it resonated deeply within the team.

Their first game after that embarrassing night in New York was a hard-fought loss to the Boston Celtics. Then from there, the Bucks ignited. The team has now won 13 of their last 16 games, capped off with last night's dominate victory in the NBA Cup championship over the Western Conference favorite Oklahoma City Thunder.

Giannis Antetokounmpo during this stretch - 33.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 6.7 APG, 61.8 FG%.

But the whole point of this run is that he hasn't been alone. Co-Star Damian Lillard has seemed to have finally found his footing in Milwaukee, averaging 25.5 points and 8.3 assists per game during this 13-3 stretch. The Giannis-Dame pairing is the highest scoring duo in all of basketball this season.

The Bucks also received a boost from Khris Middleton, whose return to play during this stretch has brought much-needed stability. While his individual stats haven’t been eye-popping due to a minutes restriction, the team is 11.7 points better per 100 possessions when he’s on the court. He brings an element of playmaking and second side creation the team was previously lacking, especially when Lillard sat.

Role players have stepped up as well. AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., and Taurean Prince have all improved their three-point shooting during this stretch, spacing the floor while providing strong defensive efforts on the other end. Their ability to complement the stars has been crucial to the team’s resurgence.

And then there’s the X-Factor, both of this run and of last night’s NBA Cup Championship: Andre Jackson Jr. Tasked with guarding superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jackson showcased his All-Defensive ability. In the six and a half minutes he was matched up with SGA, the Thunder’s star shot just 1-of-6 from the field (16.7%) and committed a turnover. Jackson’s effort was emblematic of the Bucks defensive intensity and their all-in mentality during this run.

Since November 8th, the Bucks rank in the top ten in both offensive rating (10th) and defensive rating (8th). What’s most encouraging for Milwaukee is the collective belief that they’re only scratching the surface of their potential. This isn’t their peak, something echoed by both Giannis and the Bucks coaching staff after last night’s win.

"We’re going to stay locked in because the job’s not done” Giannis emphasized.

Unlike the champagne-soaked celebration by the Lakers after their NBA Cup victory last season, the Bucks kept things relaxed after the trophy ceremony. This was a deliberate decision by head coach Doc Rivers and assistant coach Darvin Ham, who wanted the team to "focus on the remainder of the season".

Things are coming together for the Bucks in a way they haven't since the team shook up its foundation with the Lillard trade last September. After consecutive playoff disappointments, it was clear the Bucks needed a shift, particularly one that prioritized consistent shot creation and late-game offense. However, with the trade happening so late in the offseason, the supporting cast wasn’t fully optimized for the transition from Jrue Holiday to Lillard.

This season, the supporting cast feels more tailored to its core of Antetokounmpo-Lillard-Middleton and defensive anchor Brook Lopez. Last night’s performance encapsulated the heights this team can reach when playing their best—and that was even without Khris Middleton, who missed the game due to illness.

I truly believe this team is the NBA’s sleeping giant when it comes to title contention. As of today, the Bucks are ranked tenth in championship odds according to FanDuel. While that feels a bit low, I’m also not sitting here claiming they should leap ahead of teams like Boston or even New York in those odds from Eastern teams.

This is an older team, prone to injuries, and the unpredictability of the season for them looms large. But if they can get to the postseason healthy, I promise you there isn’t a single team in the league that would want to face them in a seven-game series. The Bucks are unique—built to attack in ways that are different from most teams.

Let’s take a deeper dive into why I believe this team has a legitimate shot to be the last one standing in June, even if they shouldn’t necessarily be considered the favorites.

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Don't Be Sure The Roster Refining Is Finished

Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton have both been popular names in trade discussions, and either could be leveraged to add a better defensive fit at the four or five in bench units.

Connaughton has fallen completely out of the rotation during this stretch, indicating his diminished role on the team. While Portis continues to provide a scoring punch off the bench, the team is 7.5 points worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor, largely due to a noticeable defensive drop-off.

With the roster finding full health, the Bucks already have more than enough scoring options to sustain their offense throughout a game. I believe it would be wise if the team could acquire a big versatile defender off the bench. Think what PJ Washington did for Dallas last year after the deadline.

Potential Options: Dorian Finney-Smith, Robert Williams III, Larry Nance Jr, Jarred Vanderbilt

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Giannis-Dame Chemistry

Giannis Antetokounmpo might be the most unique player in basketball, simply because he can completely break your defense. The sense of balance, the standard concepts of help defense, and even the ideal personnel you want to deploy—all of it gets thrown out the window when facing him.

He’s the greatest rim scorer in NBA history and can dominate the paint entirely on his own. Teams are forced to build a literal wall just to slow him down, as he’s the most physically imposing downhill driver the game has ever seen. And with his playmaking continuing to improve, Giannis has become solution proof.

Last night was a perfect example of Giannis’s ability to break even the best defensive strategies. The Thunders defense thrives when they can blitz pick-and-roll actions and rotate behind the play with their quick and versatile defenders—a strategy that has effectively neutralized stars like Luka Doncic just last week.

But Giannis doesn’t rely on pick-and-roll to initiate his offense. Instead, he attacks downhill and dominates in isolation or from the post, making it difficult for even the Thunders plethora of excellent individual defenders to contain him.

Here are a couple of clips from last night’s game, showing some of his domination and possession where the Thunder were forced to send multiple defenders—sometimes nearly triple-teaming him—to even just try to prevent him from getting rim attempts.

Lillard on the other hand, has shown noticeable growth in his off-ball game during his second season away from Portland. A simple stat, like his catch-and-shoot three-point percentage rising from 32% to 36% this season, reflects part of this adjustment—but it goes much deeper than that.

He’s become a more willing screener, an area where both he and Giannis have made strides compared to last season. Additionally, Lillard appears increasingly comfortable letting Giannis bring the ball up the court and the offense flow into an action that involves him rather then starts with him.

As I mentioned earlier, Giannis and Dame are the league's highest-scoring duo, and their success stems from a balance between their individual roles and their growing chemistry. Both have become more comfortable playing with the ball less, finding ways to be effective with less total touches. At the same time, they’re coming together more often than ever to create actions that involve both of them, blending their unique skill sets. Giannis has improved mightily over the past year with his short roll game, a spot he didn't attack from often before Lillard's arrival.

With every game, their synergy improves, and this evolution is unlocking new possibilities for what the Bucks offense can achieve.

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Khris Middleton

In many ways, Khris Middleton’s health will be the deciding factor in the Bucks season. When teams load up to try to stop Dame-Giannis actions, having a release valve who can create offense himself is key.

The regular season doesn’t need to be perfect—last year proved that. Despite battling injuries throughout much of the season, Middleton delivered when it mattered most in the playoffs. In the 2024 postseason, he was the Bucks most consistent player, averaging 24.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists over six games against Indiana in the first round.

Middleton is a proven playoff performer who elevates the Bucks in nearly every way when he’s on the court. His second-side creation and playmaking are critical to their offense. He also takes on the role of de facto point guard in non-Lillard lineups, ensuring the offense maintains its structure. And even at age 33, with injuries mounting, Middleton remains a competitive defender who is always in the right spots.

Everything Middleton brings is only additive. His presence amplifies Milwaukee’s size advantage on most nights. And because Middleton doesn’t need high usage to find his rhythm, he integrates seamlessly into the flow of the offense without disrupting it.

The key question, as always, is whether he can stay healthy. If Middleton can make it to the playoffs and remain on the floor, he elevates this Bucks team to championship air. His impact is as significant as anyone's in making Milwaukee the sleeping giant I believe they are.

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Point Of Attack Defense, And How It Enhances Lopez

One of the most significant changes sparking the Bucks recent run has been Doc Rivers decision to move away from Delon Wright and Pat Connaughton in favor of Jackson Jr. and Green. Combined with offseason additions Trent Jr. and Prince, the Bucks have built a strong supporting cast of role players who can both shoot threes and defend at the point of attack.

Andre Jackson Jr. has emerged as the defensive ace of the group. He’s not just elite at guarding ball handlers but also brings a unique element as a rim protector from the guard position—a rare but invaluable trait for today’s NBA. Extra rim protection, whether in transition or as part of defensive rotations in half-court sets, has become increasingly critical in slowing down modern offenses.

Here's two clips, one coming last night against SGA, highlighting these two skills (the foul was overturned to a clean block).

The other role players have been effective as well defensively. Green and Trent Jr. have found success guarding opposing point guards, while Prince has proven invaluable as a point-of-attack defender capable of taking on bigger wings with high on-ball usage.

This shift in personnel has addressed the most glaring issue from last season: their point of attack defense stunk. This deficiency not only exposed the perimeter but also indirectly diminished Brook Lopez’s impact. Lopez came close to winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23 thanks to his elite rim protection, but one of the key's to Milwaukee’s successful drop defensive scheme that season was the elite screen navigation provided from the front line of the defense, spearheaded by Jrue Holiday.

Holiday's ability to funnel ball handlers into the paint off screens allowed Lopez to anchor the defense more effectively. Without that screen navigation, Lopez’s limitations in agility were exposed, forcing him away from the basket and diminishing his impact with guys running free off screens all over the floor.

The ability of the point-of-attack defenders to navigate screens, funnel players into Lopez, and maintain the structure of the defense has been crucial. This setup lets Lopez thrive, leveraging his size, discipline, and impeccable timing to force misses and block shots.

The defense is ten points better per 100 possessions with Lopez on the court, an impact being felt with the team’s overall defense, which has taken a huge leap from last season. Combining this aspect with Giannis transforming into an elite defensive swiss army knife again, this team has established a defensive floor that can allow the offense to take them to the heights they want to reach.

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AJ Green & His Movement Shooting

The increased AJ Green minutes aren't only helping the defense. Green has emerged as one of the best three-point shooters in the entire league, currently ranking sixth in three-point percentage at an incredible 47.6%. It's created a new wrinkle in the Bucks offense.

He's not just a stand still shooter benefitting from Giannis and Dame's gravity either. Players like this have often seen diminishing returns in the postseason when the pressure rises and defenses are more locked in on defensive rotations and closeouts.

Green is an elite movement shooter, and has shown off the bounce creation to get into his looks. I have some fun clips below of him showcasing these abilities.

Green has also become an excellent inverted pick and roll partner with Giannis, stepping into the “flip the screen” role previously occupied by Pat Connaughton. For years, Connaughton’s inverted pick and roll chemistry created easy opportunities for Giannis to get downhill and for Connaughton himself to generate quality looks popping off his drive. Now, with Green taking over this role—and being three times the shooter Connaughton was—the action has become even more effective.

This clip demonstrates this action.

Green’s leap has added yet another layer to the Bucks offensive versatility, particularly during stretches when one of their stars is on the bench. It’s a wrinkle that opposing defenses will need to account for throughout the game. In a league where you can never have too many places to go for generating offense, Green’s emergence has provided Milwaukee with a valuable new avenue.

. . .

Doc Rivers Has Done What They Asked Him To Do

When the Bucks moved on from Adrian Griffin last season, despite a 30-13 start, they didn’t hire Doc Rivers expecting perfection. They just needed him to deliver on three key priorities.

1. Find the synergy between Dame and Giannis.

2. Play your best guys, regardless of experience.

3. Be better then Griffin with in-game adjustments.

So far, so good. We’ve already discussed the first two, and now it’s time to dive into the third: Rivers ability to make subtle, effective in-game adjustments. Last night’s game against the Thunder provides a perfect example.

Oklahoma City thrives defensively when the main creator operates out of pick-and-roll, allowing them to blitz the action and rotate behind, as we mentioned earlier. When Lillard plays without Giannis, Milwaukee leans heavily into pick-and-roll offense, as that’s where Lillard is most comfortable.

Giannis sat to start the second and fourth quarters last night. In the second quarter, the Bucks played the Thunder evenly until Giannis checked back in at 7:27. During this stretch of heavy pick-and-roll, the Thunder forced a couple of turnovers and managed to slow Milwaukee’s offense.

The next stint Giannis sat, Doc made a key adjustment. Instead of sticking with pick-and-roll, the team played through Bobby Portis in the post, running off-ball actions to free up shooters. Giannis had actually subbed out with 1:47 left in the third, with the Bucks up ten. By the time he returned at 8:23 in the fourth, the lead had grown to 17.

These kinds of adjustments from Rivers haven’t been uncommon this season—they’ve been instrumental to the Bucks success during this stretch. Despite the narrative around Doc as a coach, what I’ve seen this season is a coach who has been impactful. Sure, he’s not perfect, but no coach is.

The constant criticism of Rivers playoff resume feels overblown. He couldn’t win with Paul George? Who has? He couldn’t win with Joel Embiid? Again, who else has? When you give Doc a roster of real competitors and winners, you just might get results like the 2008 Celtics. From what I’ve seen, all signs point to Rivers being an asset for this team in the Spring.

AND SO, I'LL leave one final warning: if they’re fully healthy, the 2024-25 Milwaukee Bucks are sleeping giants in this league.