Daniel Waddleton
Oct 16, 2024
EVERY YEAR IT feels like the NBA gets deeper than the year before. The league has never had more talent, with aging stars still playing at a high level while a constant influx of young talent enters the league.
Every season, I limit myself to picking no more than seven teams that I believe have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA Finals, and these days, the challenge has never been more difficult. The days of the Warriors being -187 preseason favorites to win the title are long gone. There are at least one or two teams I’ve left off this list that I’ll likely be sweating about all season.
That said, I’m confident I’ll make it through another season without regrets. So without further ado, here are the 23 teams that won’t win the NBA Finals this season.
Note: This isn’t a power ranking, and the tiers don’t reflect which teams I think are better than others.
Tier 7 - No Path
Washington Wizards
The less said about this monstrosity, the better. At the very least, they’ve fully committed to the tank, and if that results in Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey in nine months, this dreadful season will have been worth it. Now seriously, can we get Malcolm Brogdon back on a real contender already?!
Gambling Advice – No number is too low for this roster, under 20.5 games.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets will likely finish with the worst or second worst record in basketball after their offseason moves, which seem designed to make sure of that. But I must admit—I’m still a little intrigued by early-season Ben Simmons (I’m sorry). It’s been four years, and I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that a 6'10" guard with elite passing and defense, who made Third-Team All-NBA at 24 years old, just completely fell off.
Also, I’m curious to see if Cam Thomas can average 30 points per game now that there’s literally no one to rein him in. A 2021 Bradley Beal type season, but even more ugly.
Detroit Pistons
I'm actually optimistic that the Pistons will improve this season, even without making any major moves. In the 2023 offseason, I was disappointed they didn’t make a play for Cameron Johnson, as I thought he was the perfect 3-and-D wing this young roster needed. While they didn’t necessarily address the “D” this offseason, they absolutely addressed the “3.”
Acquiring Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr. might not have been splashy moves for a contending team, but they’re exactly the kind of shooters Detroit desperately needed to complement their core of Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland, and Jalen Duren—all of whom are average to below-average jump shooters.
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland might have the most intriguing collection of players on a bottom-tier team in NBA history. Whether it's budding young talents or players who could instantly become key contributors on a contending team, the Blazers have legitimate assets. However, without a true star and with a clear offense/defense trade-off roster construction, there’s likely no realistic path for this team to even compete for a play-in spot.
But really, just take a look at this roster because it's genuinely not bad:
Guards: Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe
Wings: Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara
Centers: Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III, Donovan Clingan
Chicago Bulls
Welcome back, Lonzo Ball! One of my favorite players before his knee injury, I can only hope he returns looking even 80% of the starting point guard for the No. 1 seeded Chicago Bulls in January 2022. If he does, I believe he’ll immediately become a trade candidate for Chicago, with the team having a plethora of guards that include should've been 2024 most improved player Coby White and newly acquired Josh Giddey. The Bulls could likely fetch a solid return for Lonzo, as he was one of the best connective pieces on both offense and defense back in 2021-22.
Charlotte Hornets
I’ve seen some "buzz" around the Charlotte Hornets heading into the season, but I’m selling that hype. LaMelo Ball could easily be classified as a unicorn point guard—combining his skills and size, a 6'8" volume three-point shooter with elite playmaking is rare. But unfortunately, we haven’t seen any evidence yet that his body can hold up for an 82-game season. If you could guarantee me 70 games from LaMelo, I’d pick this team to make the play-in, but I don’t trust it.
That leaves us with Brandon Miller, who I believe is a future star. However, I’m not sure he’s ready to take on the role of an efficient No. 1 option in just his second year.
Shoutout post trade deadline Tre Mann.
Tier 6 - Fun, But Obviously Not
Utah Jazz
If you’re ever watching League Pass on a random Wednesday night and want to catch a coaching masterclass, tune in at 9:08 Eastern for the Utah Jazz. Will Hardy’s flare screen-centric offense is one of the cooler things to watch around the league. Since arriving in Utah, Hardy has seemed to find a way to squeeze every ounce of value from each player on the roster. Once the Jazz acquire some higher-level talent, I fully expect Hardy to lead this team back into routine playoff appearances
Toronto Raptors
I’ve seen a lot of people really down on the Raptors heading into this season, but I’m here to go against the grain. Am I picking them to make the playoffs? No. But I also don’t think they’re a complete train wreck. At the very least, they have a talented starting five with some intriguing pieces.
Do they have enough floor spacing to maximize RJ Barrett’s offensive game? Can Immanuel Quickley become an efficient starting point guard? Is Scottie Barnes ready to take another leap? These are key questions for Raptors fans. Still, I believe this roster is better than advertised.
San Antonio Spurs
"Wemby and friends" is back for its second season in San Antonio. Just kidding—you all know how much I love my guy Devin Vassell. Unfortunately, Vassell is set to miss time at the start of the season due to a knee injury, leaving Victor Wembanyama's supporting cast a bit thin. However, the addition of Chris Paul should help stabilize the offense and put Wemby in better positions to be more efficient as a scorer compared to last season.
While I think with that Wemby has a real shot at making an All-NBA team this year, I don’t believe this Spurs team is strong enough to make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference. I’ll personally be taking the under on their projected 35.5 wins as well. I think the Spurs are a year away from being a year away. Excited to see Stephon Castle though!
Atlanta Hawks
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. So, if you want to call me insane, that's fine, but there's no way I’m not betting the Hawks' over again this year. Listed as low as 33.5 wins on DraftKings and as high as 36.5 on FanDuel, I’d take the over on any of those numbers.
Dejounte Murray was a poor fit next to Trae Young, and once his defense slipped, the pairing became hardly even competent. Now, with the additions of Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr., the Hawks immediately improve their lacking defense. The ball is also now back solely in Trae Young's hands, like it was when they made the Conference Finals just three years ago. Combined that with an intriguing supporting cast, including some fun two-way wings like Jalen Johnson, De'Andre Hunter, and Zaccharie Risacher, who will bring energy and effort every night.
Gambling Advice: I think Jalen Johnson 11-1 for most improved player is a fun flyer.
Tier 5 - West Play-In (Maybe)
Los Angeles Clippers
What a fall from grace for this franchise. Five years ago, the Clippers looked like they were poised to dominate the league for years to come. Even as recently as February of last year, they appeared to have a legitimate shot at the title. Now, fans are left with little more to look forward to than the Intuit Dome and the return of Houston Harden—four years too late.
They’ve added some nice pieces around the edges, like Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn, but with Kawhi Leonard not looking likely to return anytime soon, this Clippers team would be lucky to even make the play-in
Sacramento Kings
A team that has consistently been one of the better offensive squads in the league since acquiring Domantas Sabonis in 2022, the Kings figure to be even more effective this season after adding one of the best half-court scorers in basketball, DeMar DeRozan. Among players who appeared in 10 or more clutch-time games last season, DeRozan ranked first in points per game (4.8) while shooting 48.7% from the floor in those situations.
However, the defense will still remain an issue. For as well as Sabonis has played for the Kings, he’s not a strong enough rim protector to anchor an elite defense. Their perimeter defense also isn’t quite good enough to cover for that weakness. The Nuggets found a way to win a title without elite rim protection, but Sabonis isn’t Nikola Jokić offensively.
Betting Advice: Malik Monk’s late-season injury cost him the Sixth Man of the Year award last year—and cost me an 11-1 odds payout. Not happening again this year. Monk at +650 is my pick.
Tier 4 - The Eastern Conference Tweeners
Cleveland Cavaliers
All three teams in this tier will undoubtedly expect to make the playoffs this season, but each has fatal roster flaws that will prevent them from breaking into the NBA's elite. For the Cleveland Cavaliers, their issue is glaring—they have one of the most positionally imbalanced rosters in the league.
Their two starting guards, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, are offensively gifted but undersized, while their two starting big men, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, are elite defensively but offer little in terms of floor spacing. The fifth starter is likely to be Isaac Okoro, though he may eventually be replaced by Max Strus. However, neither player fills the two-way wing role this roster desperately needs.
It feels inevitable that at least one of Garland or Allen will be traded in the near future. That move would allow Mitchell to become the primary ball handler and pave the way for Mobley to take on the mantle of the franchise’s cornerstone center for years to come.
Indiana Pacers
The fatal flaw of this roster is that they simply won’t be able to defend well enough to win four straight playoff rounds. Tyrese Haliburton is the engine of an offense that ranked second in the NBA last year, but he’s also the weakest link on a defense that ranked 24th. Meanwhile, Myles Turner’s defensive impact has declined in recent years, and no one else on the roster stands out as a true difference-maker at that end.
The bright side for Indiana? They’re going to continue to be a super fun regular season team. Plus, Andrew Nembhard seems to just be scratching the surface of his potential as a high-level NBA player and a perfect running mate for Haliburton.
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic returns this season with the same youthful core that won 47 games last year, while adding one of the most additive players in free agency, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. On paper, you’d expect them to win even more games and compete for a top 3-4 seed in the East. While I’m not here to say they won’t, I remain skeptical about this team's offense.
The Magic ranked 24th in clutch-time offense last season, and there's little reason to expect a dramatic improvement in that area. Many seem eager to anoint Paolo Banchero as the leagues next offensive superstar, but both the advanced stats and film suggest he's still a ways off from reaching that level. His wing partner, Franz Wagner, also needs to rediscover his three-point range, or else the team will continue to struggle with spacing—even after the addition of KCP.
Don’t allow me to suggest it’s all doom and gloom for Orlando, though. They’re young and secure one of the best defenses in the league. But as it stands, their offense still has significant ground to cover.
Tier 3 - Potentially One Move Away
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans might just be the sleeping giant of the NBA. As currently constructed, I’m not even sure they’re a playoff team in the stacked Western Conference. However, if they found a way to move Brandon Ingram for a real center who fits well alongside Zion Williamson, they could be legitimate title contenders.
This roster is loaded with talent and features the kind of role players you expect to see on teams still playing in June. The issue is that Herbert Jones is currently their de facto center. While Jones may be one of the best pound-for-pound defenders in the league, relying on him as your center for four playoff rounds feels unrealistic. In fact, it’s hard to even expect this roster to be one of the top eight teams in the loaded West without making a move for a more traditional big man.
Miami Heat
You can never fully count out the Miami Heat, and with Jimmy Butler fired up after Pat Riley's comments this summer, I’m expecting them to be a top four seed in the East this season. Anytime you have a defense anchored by Bam Adebayo, you’re going to be strong on that end of the floor— as they’ve been top 10 in defense for the last four seasons.
They will also deploy a solid supporting cast around their two stars, with players like Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez, and Nikola Jović, which should give them a passable regular-season offense. However, to truly contend for an Eastern Conference title, I believe they’re still missing one more offensive piece—someone who can provide more balance in a tough playoff series.
Gambling Advice: Heat Over 43.5 Wins
Tier 2 - League Pass All-Stars
Memphis Grizzlies
After finishing second in the Western Conference in both 2021-22 and 2022-23, the Memphis Grizzlies endured a nightmare season in 2023-24. Ja Morant missed the first 25 games due to suspension, and after returning to lead Memphis to a 6-3 record, he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Morant wasn't the only casualty, as the Grizzlies ended up using 33 different players throughout the season.
However, not everything was bad in this cursed year. Memphis held onto the 9th pick in the NBA Draft and selected Zach Edey, college basketball's Naismith Player of the Year. As we saw in the 2023 World Cup , Jaren Jackson Jr. is likely never going to be a center, and is most effective as a power forward next to a bruising big man. Now, with the largest center in the league in Edey, who impressed in the preseason, the Grizzlies' frontcourt looks formidable. Add in a couple of young, talented wings like Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson, who gained valuable experience last year, and this team is shaping up to be one of my must-watch League Pass teams—and a top-four seed in the West.
Gambling Advice: Zach Edey for Rookie of the Year at +650.
Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns entered last season with the idea that between Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant, they wouldn’t need a traditional point guard to balance the offense. While this approach helped Booker post career highs in both points and assists, it’s undeniable that the offense just seemed to have a lot of overlapping skills, and looked disorganized at times without a real table setter. Enter Tyus Jones, perhaps the most underrated point guard in basketball. Before spending last year in Washington (where he quietly lead the league in assist to turnover ratio), Jones was widely regarded as the best backup point guard in the league with Memphis. He also posted a 38-22 record filling in as the starter when Ja Morant was out.
Phoenix is banking on the stability Jones provides, alongside new head coach Mike Budenholzer, to unlock more value from an offense loaded with talent. A top-three offense should certainly be in the cards this season.
As for defense, that remains the big question for this Suns team. Their defense cratered in the postseason, rankings last among the 16 playoff teams in defensive rating. Rookie Ryan Dunn has shown promise as a potential difference-maker after an impressive preseason, but it’s hard to envision this team making it beyond the second round with so many defensive concerns in their closing five.
Golden State Warriors
The loss of Warriors legend Klay Thompson is undeniably sad, but if you looked far enough down the road, it was likely for the best. The relationship clearly soured, so rather than running back a roster that had become below average in comparison to the rest of the Western Conference, the Warriors brought in a collection of role players who fit well around their existing core.
The offense will still revolve around Stephen Curry and Draymond Green playing off each other, but the additions of De'Anthony Melton as a do-it-all 2-guard, sharpshooter Buddy Hield, and the versatile Kyle Anderson should complement this core nicely. The Warriors will also bank on a second-year leap from guard Brandin Podziemski, and of course Jonathan Kuminga remains one of the biggest wild cards in basketball.
Has Stephen Curry won his last ring? Probably. But at the very least, this Warriors team will be a livelier and more intriguing unit than it was a season ago.
Houston Rockets
This might be the ultimate League Pass team this season. While they don’t carry the same expectations as other teams in this tier, the Houston Rockets have one of the most exciting rosters in basketball. They’ve got a potential budding star in Alperen Şengün, whose advanced stats are off the charts. They also roster savvy veterans in their prime like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, who have been on contending teams and helped change the culture in Houston last season.
Their young core is stacked with hyper-talented players like Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason, all looking to rise to the next tier of players. And, like any good League Pass team, they have wildcards—Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore are two of the most intriguing prospects in the league, and you never know what you’ll see from them on any given night. Meanwhile, Reed Sheppard is probably the best rookie in his class, and we don't even know how many minutes he will appear in opening night.
This team is exciting, dynamic, and will likely win a lot of games. Ime Udoka ranks as a top-three coach in my opinion, and with the abundance of talent and versatility to adapt lineups based on matchups, I’d be more surprised if this team missed the playoffs than if they made it.
Tier 1 - The West Sweat
Minnesota Timberwolves
The biggest question heading into this season out West: Did the Timberwolves get better after the Karl-Anthony Towns trade? I’ve pondered this for a month now, and I think I’ve landed on a tentative yes. While I’m not a huge fan of Julius Randle, and I have concerns about how well he’ll fit offensively alongside Anthony Edwards, there's no denying that Randle brings toughness and physicality—qualities that align with how the Wolves want to play. Plus, he can provide some much-needed offensive firepower when Edwards is off the floor.
However, the more intriguing piece in this deal for Minnesota is Donte DiVincenzo. After knocking down 3.5 threes per game on 40% shooting last season, DiVincenzo has emerged as a legitimate sharpshooter and could be an ideal fit next to Anthony Edwards. Not only can he space the floor, but he’s also capable of taking on some playmaking duties, which might be critical as Mike Conley continues to age. DiVincenzo’s versatility and complementary skills could play a significant role in shaping the Timberwolves' success, especially as other youthful parts of the roster continue to ascend.
This trade also is likely to open more room for Naz Reid to grow. With Towns out, Reid—who has a similar skill set—may see an increased role. If the Randle experiment doesn’t work out, Reid has the potential to become an excellent complement to Rudy Gobert in the starting front court.
Dallas Mavericks
The real sweat. Luka Dončić ranked 3rd in EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus) last season, the highest of any player not included in my inner circle of contenders. Leaving off the second-best offensive player in basketball is risky, especially after seeing Luka effortlessly dismantle defenses in the 2024 postseason on his way to an NBA Finals appearance. His running mate, Kyrie Irving, also had a resurgent postseason, delivering several dazzling offensive performances.
The big question for the Mavericks getting back to the finals is whether the re-tooled three through eight guys can elevate the team to a championship level. They lost Derrick Jones Jr., their best point-of-attack defender, and are likely replacing him in the starting lineup with Klay Thompson who, at this stage in his career, is a below-average defender. While Klay will likely make the offense even more potent, the Mavericks' identity post-All-Star break last season was defense—where they ranked first in the league during that stretch, fueling their turnaround.
The addition of underrated defensive specialist Naji Marshall to the bench could be crucial, and he may even close games instead of Thompson. If that happens, I’d feel more confident about their closing lineup.
It doesn't feel right to talk Mavericks and not mention Derrick Lively II. Lively had an up-and-down Finals series, but prior to that, he was outstanding in the postseason. I expect him to continue his ascent as a foundational piece of the Luka era in Dallas.
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So if you haven't been keeping track, the teams that can win the 2024-25 NBA Finals are the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, and yes the Los Angeles Lakers. I know the Lakers will not be a popular finals pick, but the only team who has beaten them the last two years were the Denver Nuggets, who have their own roster issues heading into this year. I'm also ready for the year of Anthony Davis.
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