Daniel Waddleton
Oct 23, 2023
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With the NBA as deep as it's ever been, it's never been harder to select the 7 teams for this exercise.
Every season I pick no more then 7 teams that I believe actually could win the NBA finals in the upcoming season, and this year was my hardest to date. The days of the Warriors being -187 to win the title in the preseason are over. There's at least 1 or 2 teams that I left off that I will certainly be sweating all season long.
I take pride in this challenge (I absolutely LOVED the Nuggets last preseason), and I expect to make it through another season clean this year. So without further ado, the 23 teams who won't win the NBA finals this season.
Note: This isn't a power rankings, simply just putting teams into tiers
Tier 7 - Never Stood a Chance
Washington Wizards - While watching Jordan Poole put up 25 shots a game will be entertaining for some; the reality is this team has just begun a rebuild and project to be among the worst teams in the East this season. The main thing I'm watching for this season is who's the first guy to complete flip out on Poole when he takes another contested jumper while he's wide open.
Portland Trail Blazers - Blazers fans are preparing for the first year without Damian Lillard in over a decade, but don’t feel too bad for them (or me) considering they have maybe the most athletic 3 headed monster at guard you’ll ever see. As fun as it will be however, this team has just entered a rebuild and the front office has probably already started scouting next years top wing prospects.
San Antonio Spurs - Victor Wembanyama is still a bit of a mystery as far as how good he will be right away in the regular season, but assuming he is still raw offensively the Spurs didn’t add anything else to an offense that ranked 23rd in the league last season. I'm just excited for people to accidentally find out how good Devin Vassell is when tuning into the nationally televised games to see Wemby play. Devin Vassell stock $$$$$.
Charlotte Hornets - Some believe bringing back Miles Bridges to a team that was in the play-in last time he was on the floor will bring this team back to that status. I am certainly less optimistic as the depth in the East is much improved from 2 years ago. Expect this team back in the lottery. I also don't feel as good about my Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson draft ranking right now, so please don't look awful Brandon.
Detroit Pistons - Cade Cunningham suffered a season-ending injury before his season even got started last year, so getting him back and pairing him with 2nd year guard Jaden Ivey in the backcourt should be a lot of fun. Depending on Jalen Duren’s 2nd year development I wouldn’t be shocked if this team is playing somewhat meaningful basketball late in the regular season for the first time in a couple years. No, that doesn't mean i'm picking them to make the playoffs, but still around the play-in race during the latter part of the season feels possible.
Brooklyn Nets - Oh poor Nets fans. At this time last year they weren't even on this list of 23 team, now they land in the "no chance" tier. If we get the old "3rd Team All-NBA" Ben Simmons back this Nets team is probably a playoff team, but it’s hard to project that considering what the last two seasons have looked like. Instead, I see them missing out on the playoffs this year. Oh also before I forget to say, can we see Nic Claxton be a better rebounder before we make him a defensive player of the year candidate?
Tier 6 - Fun, But Not Yet
Houston Rockets - In an extremely deep western conference it’s hard to see a path for the Rockets sneaking into the playoffs, but this team has a lot of talent. The addition of former NBA Champion point guard Fred Van Vleet should help stabilize a team that felt like it desperately needed a veteran floor general last season. The mix of veteran's and young talent should make this team very fun to watch. And with that being said I picked them to finish 10th in the west as a play in team, sorry!
Oh, and by the way, if you’re selling Dillion Brooks stock let me know because I’m buying!
Indiana Pacers - When talking “league-pass teams” you can’t not mention the Indiana Pacers. Star point guard Tyreese Haliburton is about as good as anybody in transition and will have this team flying up and down the court all season. This team was also 23-18 last year before Haliburton missed about a month due to injury where the teams season fell apart as they went 1-9 in his absence. While they are no title contenders, the Pacers will be a play-in team this season. Gambling advice - Pacers over 39.5 wins, Haliburton league assist leader +270.
Utah Jazz - Head coach Will Hardy has proven after only one season he can get the best out of any player you give him, and Lauri Markkanen became one of the most efficient half court scorers in basketball last season. Unfortunately this team just doesn’t have enough high-end talent to compete with the league’s elite consistently. At least Jazz fans can rest their head on the pillow at night knowing they got Walker Kessler and 4 first's for a guy they probably wouldn't take back right now for Kessler straight up.
Orlando Magic - I love this core, I think Franz Wagner is one of the most underrated players in basketball, I think Paolo has a chance to be a superstar, I think Anthony Black is going to be an excellent pro, and I think Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter are BOTH top 100 players in the league. With all that being said this team is still very young in a good eastern conference, so I don’t expect to see this team playing past the first round, but I also expect that to change in the very near future.
Tier 5 - Are These Teams Awake?
Chicago Bulls - The Bulls have been reluctant to blow it up while being the definition of a “middle of the road” team the past couple seasons. They possess what could potentially be some of the most coveted players at this seasons trade deadline, which based on contract and easiest team fit might ironically be headlined by Alex Caruso.
Toronto Raptors - The Raptors are a very simple team. They don't really do anything. Instead of extending or trading their talented players, they have seemed cool with just letting their good players contracts ride out while they play .500 basketball, and then watch them walk in free agency for nothing. No move to go for it, no move to start a rebuild, just hanging out. Since the departure of Kawhi Leonard in 2019 the Raptors have basically just been in a coma, and Pascal Siakam might be the next guy to walk for nothing.
Tier 4 - Give Me a Break...
Dallas Mavericks - This is the ultimate give me a break team. Is Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving maybe the best pure offense duo in basketball? Yeah maybe. What else do they have? We have seen reports of rookie Derrick Lively being the starting center on this team and we expect them to compete in the loaded western conference? Luka is unarguably one of the best players in this league, but the guy spent more time arguing to the refs then running back on defense last year. And while the addition of Grant Williams will help that defense that ranked 25th last season, I feel like he’s more of a specific defensive matchup specialist. I don't foresee Grant Williams completely changing the Mavericks team defense this season. If this team misses the playoffs completely this year, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Philadelphia 76ers - As somebody who has never been the biggest Joel Embiid fan, his playoff flameout last year vs the Celtics did not come as much of a shock to me. In game 7 vs Boston, he shot 3-16 with 37 year old Al Horford as the primary defender. Maybe I'm just being a hater because I still can't believe Embiid won MVP over Jokic, but I don't see it with him or this team come playoff time. Now add this Harden situation in flux, I don’t expect to see this team playing any farther then the second round. Gambling advice – 76ers under 49.5.
Tier 3 - In a Weird Spot
Minnesota Timberwolves - This team gets a lot of backlash for the Rudy Gobert trade as they should, but Gobert actually played better then people seem to remember last season. He was still 14th in Defensive Win Shares and 4th in Total Rebound Percentage. The team still looks to figure out the best way to play with both Karl Towns and Gobert (if there even is one), but if Anthony Edwards takes the same leap Shai Gilgeous- Alexander took last year, this team is not going to be a fun team to play either way.
Atlanta Hawks - I wanted to put this team in the one move away tier based on my projection for them this season, but it would be immature to do it before I see it actually play out. I think this Hawks team is about to finish as a top 4 team in the East. Quin Snyder is easily one of the best coaches in basketball, and now with a whole off-season to implement what he wants to do, expect a much better looking Hawks team from last season. Trae Young is elite I don't care what you tell me, and I love Onyeka Okongwu's defense.
Gambling Advice - Hawks over 42.5
Tier 2- Potentially 1 Move or One Year Away
New York Knicks - Remember when Jalen Brunson was the most overpaid player in the NBA last summer. Well, 12 months later he’s one of the most underpaid players in the league and was excellent in the playoffs last year (28 and 5 a game). The Knicks didn’t make any splashy moves this offseason, but wing Donte DiVincenzo is a great fit with Coach Thibs and I believe RJ Barrett is going to have his best year to date. Eventually the Knicks will have to do something big if they want to really contend, but for now they seem happy just being a relevant and dangerous basketball team again.
Oklahoma City Thunder - Not sure there’s a team more built to contend for the next 10-12 years than the OKC Thunder are right now. They already have their superstar in First-Team guard Shai Gilgeous Alexander, paired with young facilitator Josh Giddy and do it all wing Jalen Williams to make up an already impressive young bunch. Now add rookies in Chet Holmgren who has the potential to be an elite defensive anchor with a very high offensive ceiling, and elite point of attack defender Cason Wallace. Sounds something like arguably the best young core in the NBA. If you couldn't tell already I'm in love with this team. With all the picks they have owed to them over the next 7 years (35 to be exact), they can cash in at any moment to make this team among the best in the NBA.
Memphis Grizzlies - This team almost made the "give me a break" tier, but I held back. Ja Morant is set to miss the first 25 games of the year this season and before you give me the "oh well look at the record last two years without Ja" speech, Tyus Jones is gone. Why is that relevant? Well maybe because he was the best backup point guard in the NBA the past two seasons. Jaren Jackson Jr got my vote for defensive player of the year last year and I regretted it during every second of the FIBA world cup, watching him foul every other possession. When he wasn't fouling he was hardly helping on the glass for a team that desperately needed him too and last time I checked that was part of defense. I'm sorry, I'm just still fired up about FIBA. The Grizzles are good, they will be in the playoffs, and they won't still be playing in June.
New Orleans Pelicans - This team was the 1 seed at one point in the west last season with Zion Williamson healthy, but even if they can get 65 games out of Zion (unlikely), I don’t see a true path to this team winning the west as talented as they are. The Lakers and Nuggets are teams that I feel like matchup very well with this roster and I’m not sure even a fully healthy pelicans team can win 4 out of 7 against either of them. They do still have the best combination of role players in the league once again this season. A weird title to hold, but they are holding it.
I almost forgot to say, get well soon Trey Murphy, us NBA nerds miss you!
Tier 1 - I'll be Nervous all Year
Sacramento Kings - Some will be surprised I have the Kings in this final tier, but I'm in love with this team. Domantas Sabonis may have had an up and down series against the Warriors last season, but he was still 2nd in Win Shares throughout the regular season. Assuming his poor playoff shooting was due more to his hand injury then a new inability to make jump shots, I believe this team has the potential to be ’14-15 warriors lite this season. Especially if talented wing Keegan Murray takes the 2nd year jump I’m anticipating he might. The lack of rim protection is still an issue and that's why they ended up on this list, but it doesn't mean they won't make me nervous. Oh, and they have the reigning clutch player of the year last year De'Aaron Fox. Light the Beam!
Cleveland Cavaliers - If Evan Mobley doesn't take an offensive jump in year 3 forget it. However, I have faith in Mobley that a leap is coming this season, and he is going to look more comfortable shooting and playmaking. Also, for a team that started two "big men" last year, they got absolutely punked on the glass vs the knicks in the first round and will once again need Mobley to improve in that area as well. Basically, putting the Cavs in this tier is a bet on Mobley that he will look good on offense and then I will have to sweat this team out in April and May. I also like the Cavs over 50 wins this season even if I'm personally not going to play it.
Los Angeles Clippers - It actually hurts putting this team on this list. Kawhi Leonard is one of my all-time favorite players and I STILL believe he is capable of holding the "best player in the world" belt if he could stay healthy. If Kawhi looks awesome 25 games in and is healthy I will absolutely be nervous about this team all season long. Throughout my lifetime Kawhi Leonard has played some of the greatest two way performances I've ever seen (never forget game 6 vs Dallas in 2021) and after two Clippers vs Suns playoff games last year I believe it's still in there. At the end of the day though, this is simply nothing more then a bet on health from Kawhi and running mate Paul George. I have no reason to believe both, or even one of them, will be healthy for 3 straight playoff rounds this Spring.
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So if you haven't been keeping track, the teams that can win the 2023-24 NBA Finals are the Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and yes the Miami Heat. Yeah I can already hear you saying "how could you possibly have the Heat on this list look at their roster after not getting dame". I don't know about you, but I'm not getting burned by the zombie heat anymore.
With the season 2 days away, I'm leaning Bucks!
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