Starting Five v8: March Madness NBA Edition
- danny52615
- 5 days ago
- 8 min read
Updated: 17 hours ago
Daniel Waddleton
Mar 31, 2025
WHILE THE MONTH of March is usually dominated by college hoops -- where the very nature of a one-loss elimination tournament filled with young adults creates total chaos and unpredictability -- the NBA has its own version of “March Madness” too.
It’s not beloved like the NCAA Tournament, but every year, we get a handful of March outcomes that make us do a double take -- results that don’t quite line up with how the rest of the season has gone. Whether it’s a random team catching fire, a role player going nuclear, or a contender suddenly spiraling, March in the NBA always delivers a few curveballs.
There are a bunch of reasons this happens. Some teams finally start clicking after trade deadline moves. Others take their foot off the gas, coasting into the postseason. And of course you’ve got lottery-bound teams giving their young guys more rope while vets get shut down or moved to the background.
In this Starting Five, we’re spotlighting five different outliers from the month of March, and breaking down what each one could mean for the playoffs or next season. I’ll do my best to dissect just how real each trend actually is.
Quentin “1A” Grimes – Real-ish
Previously best known as the guy Knicks fans begged Tom Thibodeau to unleash, Quentin Grimes has found new life in Philadelphia after a trade from Dallas -- averaging 26.6 points per game on 62.3% true shooting in March. For context, Jalen Brunson, an All-NBA-level player, is averaging 26.3 points on 60.6% true shooting this month. The leap is real.
Of course, context matters. The Sixers are 3–11 in the games Grimes played in March. The “let Grimes cook” approach with very little help around him hasn’t exactly translated to wins. So I get why some might slap the “good stats, bad team” label on this and assume Grimes will soon return to purgatory: the guy who bounces from team to team while fans wonder if their coach ever really gave him a shot.
Of course he's not going to average 27 a night next season when Embiid and Maxey are healthy. On the surface, this feels fake. But I think there’s something real buried underneath.
The shot-making Grimes is showing right now is legit. He’s always been a good point-of-attack defender, but the offensive knock was clear: limited juice outside of spot-up threes. Now? He’s creating fully on his own and looking like a borderline star for stretches.
The days of Grimes standing in the corner for 20 minutes a night feel over. At the very least, he’s proving he can be a second-side creator -- someone who can attack a tilted defense after Embiid or Maxey draws attention. His spacing, his defense, and now his on-ball flashes all make him a fascinating piece moving forward for a team that desperately needs a player with his build and skill set.
If a scaled-down version of this Grimes is sustainable, the Sixers may have unearthed a diamond in the rough during an otherwise disastrous season.
. . .
Raptors Defense – Fake
The Raptors are *checks notes* first in the NBA in defense during March. Head coach Darko Rajakovic is laughing in the face of the Thunder’s 109.3 defensive rating this month, with his squad posting a stifling 107.6 in the same stretch.
It's worth mentioning the Raptors have been a solid defensive team for a while. Since the start of 2025, they’ve hovered around the top 10. But this March surge? Different level entirely.
So how real is it? Personally, I’m leaning fake, but not without acknowledging real bright spots.
Scottie Barnes deserves a shoutout. He’s finally starting to look like the defensive Swiss Army knife people envisioned out of Florida State. Improved one-on-one defense, disruptive off-ball, even stepping up as a weakside rim protector. The Raptors have a 112.3 defensive rating with him on the floor and a -5.3 on/off swing. Pair him with Jakob Poeltl --who's been a rock solid interior anchor -- and in nearly 900 minutes together, they’re holding a 109.0 defensive rating.
Those two look like legit foundational pieces for this team’s long-term defensive identity.
There are others as well. Immanuel Quickley remains underrated at the point of attack, and Ochai Agbaji has shown flashes as a potential future wing stopper. Both project as helpful long-term contributors on that end.
However, I’ve got two big concerns, and they’re why I’m ultimately not buying this as real.
First, there’s been some shooting luck involved. In March, the Raptors are holding opponents to a league-best 50.3% effective field goal. However, if you adjust for shot location -- if opponents simply shot league average from those exact spots -- Toronto would drop all the way down to 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Now sure, part of that is good defense. But that kind of swing is massive. In fact, Toronto is the only team that ranks in the top 10 in opponent eFG% while also sitting in the bottom 10 in location-based eFG%. Outliers happen, but this kind of gap is basically unmatched anywhere else on the board this season.
Some of that luck is also likely tied to the competition. Their March schedule is... not exactly murderers’ row. Outside of one game against the Suns, Toronto hasn’t faced a single top-15 offense all month. That matters. They’re not playing teams that can fully capitalize on the kinds of shots they’re giving up.
Second, the rotation issue. Gradey Dick and Brandon Ingram have both missed the entire month of March, and when they return, they’re going to log real minutes. Neither of them are going to be additive to this defense upon return. So even if you want to give the Raptors credit and chalk the shooting luck up to their defense forcing tougher looks, I still think they are due for regression on that end once Dick and Ingram are back in the mix.
. . .
Clippers Playoff Offense – Real
The Clippers have been a top-three defense basically all season, so the reason many haven’t bought into them as a serious title threat is simple: the offense just hasn’t been good enough. They rank 18th in offensive rating overall, and against top-eight defenses? They drop to 27th. That’s behind Orlando, for crying out loud.
James Harden has done a solid job raising the floor -- basically a slower, less explosive version of his Houston self -- and Norman Powell’s breakout 2024–25 campaign has raised the ceiling just enough to let the defense carry them in the regular season. Up until March though, they’ve lacked the kind of high-end offensive gear that can actually scare contenders.
That appears no longer the case.
In March, the Clippers rank 3rd in offensive rating, putting up 123.4 points per 100 possessions. If the defense holds, that’s a number that can win playoff series.
The key difference? Kawhi Leonard. His return in January was underwhelming -- just 17.1 points on 54.4% true shooting through February. In March, he’s flipped the switch: 25.6 points per game on 63.3% true shooting. He looks springy again, getting wherever he wants on the floor and knocking down playoff-level shots. When Kawhi plays like a star, it allows the other offensive pieces like Harden, Powell, and Ivica Zubac to file into more optimized roles.
Don’t sleep on their new sixth man Bogdan Bogdanovic either. The trade deadline pickup from Atlanta looked rough in his final stretch as a Hawk, but he’s rediscovered his rhythm in L.A. Since his arrival, the Clippers are posting a 121.6 offensive rating in the 556 minutes he’s been on the floor. He’s become a vital bench piece, keeping extra creation on the floor at all times.
If -- and a big if -- Kawhi stays healthy, this team’s ceiling shifts dramatically. With Ty Lue behind the controls as one of the best postseason coaches in the league, they can hang with anybody.
. . .
Showtime Chicago – Fake
The Bulls are 9–5 in March, playing at a blistering pace of 103.14. The backcourt duo of Coby White (29.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.9 APG, 63.3% TS) and Josh Giddey (20.9 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 8.9 APG, 60.6% TS) has spearheaded this surprising run, flat-out running some teams off the floor. Just ask the Lakers, who got fried for 146 points on their home court.
White’s continued growth has been especially encouraging. I picked him as my Most Improved Player last season, and while he looked like he was trending backward early this year -- thanks in part to a guard logjam -- he’s clearly taken another leap since Zach LaVine’s departure. The confidence, the pace, the scoring efficiency, it’s all there.
As for Giddey, the near triple-double average in March is great, but the real story is his 45.9% three-point shooting since February. One of the main reasons OKC moved on from him was that teams simply didn’t guard him off-ball. He wasn’t bringing enough elsewhere to justify the spacing limitations he as creating in a playoff setting. He’ll never be an off-the-bounce sniper, but if he’s merely respected out there, it unlocks all the playmaking and feel he brings—whether as the point guard or as a combo guard next to White or Lonzo Ball.
Also worth a nod: Matas Buzelis. He’s thriving in this up-tempo, open-style offense, averaging 13.6 points per game in March and looking like a real piece moving forward -- possibly a draft pick the Bulls actually nailed. Don’t sleep on his defensive upside either. He competes hard, and at 6'10 with real athleticism, he’s already flashing strong rim protection chops -- defending 8.2 shots at the rim per 36 minutes and holding opponents to 9.3% below expected shooting. Impressive for any wing, but especially a rookie.
Unfortunately, I wouldn’t expect this level of team success to carry into next season. This feels like one of those classic March runs, playing an unorthodox style at a time when a third of the league has packed it in and another third is coasting toward the playoffs. They’re catching teams off guard, and it’s fun, but not exactly sustainable from where I'm standing.
It’s also worth noting they’ve faced very few good defensive teams this month. Of their March slate, only four games came against teams in the top half of the league defensively. That -- combined with the tempo -- has amplified this burst, making this mostly noise in my opinion even if like any late season surge their are necessary things to flag.
Until this team makes a real move in one direction or another, basketball purgatory remains home.
. . .
Zombie Heat’s Death – Real
Following years of haunting teams like Milwaukee and Boston with red-hot shooting and junk zone defenses, it looks like Miami’s run as the “zombie” contender of the East is finally over.
They traded Jimmy Butler at the deadline in mid-February, with Andrew Wiggins as the big name coming back. Some -- including myself -- wondered if they had one last act in them. Not a finals run, but maybe just enough to tread water, get into the postseason, and scare someone like Boston or New York in the first round.
Yeah... no.
The Heat are 5–11 in March, ranking 24th in offense during that stretch. They were previously 1–11 before rattling off four straight wins recently—but let’s not get carried away. Two of those were against Charlotte and Philly (two of the tankiest teams in the league), one was against a Steph-less Warriors team, and the last came by defeat of the mid-tier Hawks.
In that 1–11 stretch? Dead last in offense. This really feels like the end of the Zombie Heat era.
Tyler Herro is now the only player on the roster who can consistently create his own shot or generate for others. Bam Adebayo’s offensive limitations are now under the microscope. Without someone to share the burden, it’s become painfully clear: Bam isn’t even a second option. He’s a connector -- not a lead initiator -- so this version of the Heat is stretching him well beyond his comfort zone.
Ironically, this group kind of feels like the pre-Butler Warriors this season, except Herro has maybe half the gravity of Steph Curry. The defense, which remains respectable thanks to Bam and a few solid pieces, just isn’t getting nearly enough help from the offense to translate into wins.
I’m not sure what the future looks like. Do they go star-hunting again -- maybe Kevin Durant? Do they pivot entirely and trade Bam, committing to a full rebuild?
All I know is this: if they run this roster back next season, I wouldn’t be shocked if they struggle to win 30 games, even with the Spoelstra floor-raising machine still working overtime.
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