Starting Five v6
- danny52615
- Feb 10
- 13 min read
Updated: 19 hours ago
Daniel Waddleton
Feb 10, 2025
Enough of this football thing, now the real sports season begins. We’ve got March Madness right around the corner, and the stretch run of the NBA regular season is here. Teams are starting to take their final shape, and you can start to feel the weight and intensity of the playoffs lingering in the distance
If you’ve been following me all season, you know the drill. If not, welcome to basketball season. I take five NBA topics that have been percolating in my mind and turn them into a starting five.
So without wasting any more time, let’s announce our first Starting Five in a post-football world.
Get Ready to Play Blazers Ball
Seeing a 23-30 team on your schedule typically wouldn’t spark much fear, but when it comes to the 2025 Portland Trail Blazers, it should. Winners of 10 of their last 12, the Blazers are playing their best basketball in maybe three years. This unique mix of players and skill sets is coming together to form what looks like a playoff-level roster.
Since trading away Damian Lillard, Portland has flown under the radar, probably one of the least covered teams in basketball. But they’ve quietly made some savvy moves. They acquired Deandre Ayton and Toumani Camara for Jusuf Nurkic, and this past summer, they brought in Deni Avdija by sending out Malcolm Brogdon. Their last three first-round picks -- Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, and Donovan Clingan -- each have their flaws, but they’re all real talents who have contributed to this winning stretch.
The biggest factor in this 10-2 run has been defense, ranking first in the NBA since the streak began on January 19th. That date also marks when the Blazers began starting their trio of two-way forwards, Avdija, Camara, and Jerami Grant together alongside Anfernee Simons and a rotating center.
It’s no coincidence. This team now has switchable defenders all over the floor, and with big-man options like Ayton, Robert Williams III, and Clingan, they can anchor any lineup with real rim protection.
Camara has emerged as the defensive ace of this group, combining size, quickness, and motor to guard any high-usage offensive player. Look at this clip from a recent game against the Suns, where he guards Devin Booker. The Suns try to catch him off guard -- Booker sets a screen, quickly turns to come off a stagger, but Camara sniffs it out, jumps the passing lane, and gets a dunk on the other end.
Later in the same game, here’s a defensive possession against Kevin Durant. He helps in the gap against a Booker drive but has the quickness to recover back to Durant. His discipline and body control prevent his closeout from taking him out of the play, and he sticks with Durant on the drive before using his length to force a tough miss.
It's always nice when you have wings who can rotate on the weak side and make plays like this…
The former Blazer Lillard had high praise for the second-year wing after Portland defeated Milwaukee, a game in which Lillard shot just 7-of-17 from the field.
"When I look around the league, I’m defended by all the top perimeter defenders, and I think [Camara] is right up there at the top," Lillard said. "His competitiveness, his size, length, energy, he takes pride in it, and he’s constantly going."
This team is grinding out wins by slowing the game down, ranking 27th in pace over this stretch. Their strategy is clear: lock in defensively and score just enough to win. They get part of that scoring punch from another three-headed monster on the roster, their trio of shot-creating guards: Simons, Sharpe, and Henderson. All three can be a little trick or treat when it comes to volume scoring and playmaking, but that’s the luxury of having multiple options to complement their core of two-way wings.
This is a team that is truly greater than the sum of its parts.
With the Blazers just three games out of the Play-In Tournament, a postseason push isn’t out of the question. They held firm at the trade deadline, keeping intact the core that has fueled this incredible run.
. . .
It's Time for Atlanta Hawks Rehab
Hi, my name is Daniel, and I’m an Atlanta Hawks addict.
I know, I know. It sounds ridiculous saying it out loud, but acknowledging the problem is the first step. Every offseason, I fall into the same trap, staring at their undeniably talented roster and convincing myself this is the year they finally put it all together. Trae Young’s offense. A Jalen Johnson leap. Two-way wings. Quin Snyder. On paper, it always looks good.
Yet here I am again, midseason, staring at the standings dumbfounded like I just watched them lose to another sub-.500 team. I’ve tried to rationalize it for years. Maybe they just need more time under Snyder. Maybe the East is tougher than I thought. Maybe I just like being wrong?
No. The truth is simpler: I have a Hawks problem. I’m finally ready to check into Hawks Rehab. No more preseason optimism. No more picking their over. No more "fun potential playoff team" takes. I’m ready to admit it, this iteration of the team will just never be good.
All jokes aside, I still can’t believe this team is 25-28 and sold at the deadline. But I’m finally ready to accept some things.
First, I think I’ve just been too high on Trae Young. Believing that surrounding him with rangy wings and rim-running bigs could work because he’d be the efficient offensive engine, even without another high-end creator.
I’ve also probably overestimated their wings’ two-way ability. Maybe De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson just aren’t the defenders you’d expect them to be night to night. Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher are too raw offensively to not bleed value on that end. And going back to my misplaced faith in Trae, maybe having a center platoon of similar vertical threats, like what worked so well in Dallas, just doesn’t translate the same way when you don’t have Luka Doncic running the show (why would they trade that guy!).
What makes it so frustrating is that they have moments -- the back-to-back wins against Cleveland, the NBA Cup run -- where everything clicks, and they look impossible to beat. It always feels like I should be right about believing in this group. But every year, it’s the same old story -- high ceiling, low floor.
I’m just here to say: I’m finally ready to move past this stage of my life.
. . .
Can the Lakers Win the West?
What a difference a week makes. Just eight days ago, the Los Angeles Lakers were fringe contenders, attempting to balance going all-in for a title run while preserving their future, especially considering their team was built around a 40-year-old LeBron James.
Now, their future is set. They’ve secured a 25-year-old perennial MVP candidate in Luka Doncic, fresh off an NBA Finals appearance just eight months ago.
The big question now is: what can this Lakers team, spearheaded by Luka, LeBron, and Austin Reaves, accomplish this season?
The Lakers attempted to bolster their roster even further by trading for Mark Williams to fill a glaring hole at center. Williams was a seamless offensive fit alongside their stars, but the deal fell through after he failed his physical. So, this is it. This is the version of the Lakers that will enter the 2025 playoffs -- a team with clear strengths and some glaring weaknesses.
Let's start with the obvious, with Luka in the fold the Lakers’ shot creation and passing will reach ridiculous heights. Always having at least two of Luka, Reaves, and LeBron on the floor at all times means this team will rarely, if ever, settle for bad shots.
Luka’s ability to generate advantages all over the court makes him this unsolvable offensive player. Guard him with a bigger player, and he’ll torch them in the pick-and-roll. Throw a smaller defender onto him, and he’ll punish them in the post. Blitz him on screens, and watch a master at work with his elite vision and court mapping. Or good luck stopping LeBron or Reaves with an advantage in front of them.
When Luka sits, Reaves should always be on the floor to ensure the Lakers maintain a high-level guard creator and pick-and-roll threat. Reaves is in the midst of a breakout campaign, averaging 19.1 points and 6.2 assists on 60.1% true shooting.
With Luka now here to shoulder his significant portion of the creation burden, LeBron’s role will need to become even more versatile. He must morph into a Swiss Army knife -- playing as anything from an pick-and-roll ball handler, short-roll playmaker, post-up threat, and even an off-ball screener.
That shouldn’t be an issue, he's done it before. But he’ll also need to increase his defensive engagement. With Luka likely taking the lowest usage wing assignment on defense each night, LeBron must step up and be more active off-ball, and a more intense on-ball.
I believe it can happen though. With less offensive burden, the possibilities are endless. Luka orchestrating the offense allows LeBron to conserve energy and fill in the gaps elsewhere.
Players like Gabe Vincent, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Rui Hachimura are these floor spacing play finishers that we were talking about above. Jaxson Hayes is poised to become an offensive monster as a vertical threat alongside Luka.
The most intriguing offensive fit now is Jarred Vanderbilt, who will be imperative to incorporate because of his defense. When he's the only non-shooter on the floor, he could play as a small-ball center in non-Hayes lineups. His underrated passing in short-roll situations and vertical finishing ability could make him an asset in the right lineup configurations.
Speaking of defense, the Lakers even before the trade had transformed into a formidable “small-ball” unit when Davis went down with injury, filled with bulky 6’8 players who can switch and guard multiple positions. Adding Luka to, LeBron, Rui, and Vanderbilt, that's also a group of very strong rebounders for their size, ensuring the team won’t get destroyed on the glass.
However, there are also clear defensive concerns. The team lacks elite rim protection. While Jaxson Hayes has shown some promising impact numbers at the rim recently, it’s uncertain if he can maintain that level of defense consistently. It will have to be a collective effort protecting the rim with strong weak side rotation, and very attentive help and recovery to try to just overall prevent players from even getting there in the first place.
One of the most overlooked factors is the loss of Max Christie. He was the Lakers’ best point-of-attack defender, routinely taking on the assignment of guarding the opposing team’s lead creator. With him gone, the backcourt duo of Luka and Reaves now raises serious questions about point-of-attack defense and screen navigation.
Gabe Vincent has the screen-navigation ability to take on this role, but he lacks Christie’s length, which could limit his effectiveness against bigger, elite guards. Finney-Smith and Vanderbilt are capable defenders, but they are more wing stoppers than true point-of-attack specialists.
The biggest potential development here would be Reaves rediscovering his early-career defensive flashes. With Luka now handling more of the offensive burden, Reaves could have the energy to recommit to point-of-attack defense, an area where his impact metrics were notably stronger earlier in his career.
If that doesn’t happen, the pressure will fall on Vincent to step up and fill the void, something that could become a critical swing factor for the Lakers’ playoff hopes.
Most importantly, defending teams like the Denver Nuggets remains a major challenge, the Lakers struggled to contain Nikola Jokic even with Davis.
They will now have to get even more creative in defending elite big men who can both dominate in the post and pass well enough to shred double teams. As the season progresses, we’ll see what blueprint they develop for these matchups.
So without even seeing this team play, can they win the title?
Well, of course they can! In a playoff series, Luka and LeBron together will be an execution nightmare -- constantly forcing opponents to adjust, attacking every hole a team leaves open as they go to cover up a different one.
The real question is whether the Lakers' defense can reach a championship-caliber baseline. That’s where my concern lies, especially in a potential matchup against Denver. Jokic could be the ultimate undoing of this Lakers squad.
Right now, I’d have the Lakers as the third-best team in the West.
OKC was my preseason Finals pick, and I haven’t wavered. However, LA could pose unique challenges to the Thunder’s ultra-aggressive defense with their surplus of high-level playmakers surrounded by good play finishers. The Thunder also have a lot of unproven playoff players. While SGA is playing like one of the best players in the world, behind him, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were inconsistent in the playoffs last season. If we get this playoff series, I'll do a serious deep dive.
Denver for my money would be the toughest matchup for the Lakers -- even more so than OKC -- because I think Jokic could single-handedly sink this team.
Against other Western contenders:
I think the Lakers match up well with Memphis and Minnesota.
The Clippers and Mavericks could pose unique problems, but I don’t think either team could out-execute the Lakers in a playoff series.
Golden State with Jimmy Butler? I need to see more before making a call on them.
. . .
Welcome Back to the Starting Five, Indiana.
The Pacers last appeared in a Starting Five piece back in December, when it looked like they were headed for a 36-win season. What a turnaround it’s been since then.
They aren’t quite Portland Trail Blazers hot, but they’re close. Since flipping the calendar to 2025, the Indiana Pacers are 13-4 with the sixth-highest net rating in that span.
What’s been most surprising about this run? It’s not their offense -- ranked eighth during this stretch -- that’s driving their success. It’s actually their defense, which has ranked sixth since January 1st.
If you’re not someone who follows the NBA year-round, you might be thinking: That pace-and-space Pacers team? The one that ranked 24th in defense last year, bringing back basically the same roster, is now sixth since January?
Yeah, they are. And it’s not just because they’re the only professional basketball team that still loves to full-court press. In my opinion, this defensive transformation comes down to two key factors: the return of Andrew Nembhard from injury and the resurgence of 2019 Raptors Pascal Siakam.
Andrew Nembhard has quietly been one of Indiana’s most valuable players over the years, a steady secondary ball-handler who can hold his own in point-of-attack defense. But with the way teams have adjusted to defending the Pacers, putting extra focus on not letting Tyrese Haliburton be a one-man show, Nembhard’s skill set has become even more crucial. His secondary creation is now a premium for this team.
The impact is staggering. When Haliburton and Nembhard are on the court together, the Pacers are +10.4 per 100 possessions. When Haliburton plays without Nembhard, the team is -7.7 per 100 possessions. That’s an 18.1-point swing.
Not only does Nembhard serve as a release valve for teams loading up on Haliburton, but he has also developed into an elite point-of-attack defender against guards. Given Haliburton’s defensive limitations, pairing him with Nembhard has become the backbone of Indiana’s success. It’s no surprise the Pacers are over 10 points better per 100 possessions when Nembhard is on the floor.
The only player with a higher on/off impact than Nembhard? Pascal Siakam, at +14.7 per 100 possessions. Siakam has turned back the clock this season, bringing a level of defensive intensity we haven’t seen from him in years. Look at this clip of him defending Kawhi Leonard 45 feet from the basket in crunch time.
Siakam has been the catalyst for this team’s rise, giving them an elite two-way forward. It's such an important part of roster building when you can have players on the floor who can provide immense value on both ends of the court at he same time, not forcing coaches to make trade-off decisions.
The lineup of Haliburton, Nembhard, Mathurin, Siakam, and Turner is outscoring teams by over 12 points per 100 possessions. For context, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ most-used starting lineup of Garland, Mitchell, Wade, Mobley, and Allen is just +5 per 100.
Right now, Indiana is looking at a 4-5 matchup with Milwaukee in the first round. If that series started tomorrow, I’d pick the Pacers to win. Then they’d likely face Cleveland, a team that -- despite its unbelievable regular season -- still has to prove itself in the playoffs.
Yes, the Cavs look different than in past years, and I expect them to exorcise their playoff demons. But say the Cavaliers get of to a cold shooting series. Pacers’ full-court pressure starts heating up, Haliburton-Turner pick-and-pop game is clicking, all the sudden the hectic nature of the playoffs starts playing into Indiana's hands.
Keep an eye on Indiana. This team might be better built for a deep run than people realize.
. . .
Who’s Going to Win Rookie of the Year?
It’s been a quiet year for rookies, with no one putting together the kind of eye-popping statistical outputs that grab national media attention. However, there have been some productive rookies making real impacts in their first year, and somebody is going to win Rookie of the Year, regardless of how little buzz the race is getting.
As of now, here are the FanDuel odds for the award:
Stephon Castle – 2/1
Kel’el Ware – +220
Jaylen Wells – +550
Zaccharie Risacher – +750
Alexandre Sarr – 16/1
Zach Edey – 16/1
Isaiah Collier – 28/1
I think it’s fair to have Castle as the favorite. He’s been a sneaky impactful player all season, now starting to put together the kind of statistical output that voters notice. In February, he’s averaging 17.7 points on 53/45/78 shooting splits, while making highlight defensive plays almost every night. If I had to project forward, I’d bet Castle ends up both winning this award and being the best player from this class.
The Miami Heat’s Kel’el Ware is the other player whose recent stats are comparable to Castle’s, and often, that’s what this award boils down to. Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Ware has seen a sizable increase in minutes, averaging 12 points and eight rebounds in 23 minutes per night. Even more recently Miami's been starting him alongside Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt. Ware's brought defensive versatility, plays as a vertical threat on offense, and has even shown he can step out and hit a three, a nice combination of skills for this rookie big man.
The Grizzlies’ rookie duo of Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey will likely receive a boost being starters on the second-seeded team in the West. If either of them goes on a late-season tear, they could gain real traction in the race. Personally, I think Wells is the better overall player, but Edey’s impact numbers are stronger. There’s nobody else on the team like Edey, so when Memphis faces matchups that benefit from playing a 7'4 giant next to Jaren Jackson Jr., his lineups tend to thrive.
The issue for both Wells and Edey is that the Grizzlies are so deep. While they’re important contributors, being secondary players on a team that goes 11-12 deep makes it tough to put up the kind of stats that usually win this award.
Zaccharie Risacher has shot up the odds recently, likely due to Atlanta’s roster reshuffling on the wing with the expectation that they’ll give their first overall pick more playing time. But I don’t see him as a serious threat in this race.
Alexandre Sarr has shown some interesting flashes that hint at his future potential, but his 48% true shooting on the worst team in basketball should take him out of serious contention.
Isaiah Collier, who has turned some heads in Utah, is recently showing flashes of the downhill playmaking that made him the number one recruit in the 2024 class. He’s averaging 8.1 assists over the past 20 games, but that probably won’t be enough to vault him into serious contention.
A deeper dive shows his team is still 7 points worse per 100 possessions when he’s on the court. You could argue that’s because Utah is bad, but his on/off numbers are just +0.7, which suggests he’s still not moving the needle even with the improved play. These aren't reasons a rookie wouldn't win the award, but when already behind the eight ball in the race having positive signals here would go a long way.
So really, this is just a long-winded way of saying: if you’re betting on Rookie of the Year, I think Castle at 2/1 is the right play. If you love longshots,
why not give Collier at 28/1 a sprinkle.
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