Starting Five Bets to Consider at the Halfway Point v5
- danny52615
- Jan 16
- 6 min read
Updated: 8 hours ago
Daniel Waddleton
Jan 16, 2025
WE'RE RIGHT AROUND the halfway point of the season, making it the perfect time to dive into the betting markets.
I don’t have any new action on the award races because, barring injury, it seems likely that all of the current favorites with minus odds will end up winning. Betting on an injury isn’t my style, but for those inclined, Jaren Jackson Jr. at 14-1 offers juicy odds if Wemby misses the 65-game threshold.
Instead, I’ve focused on a few team futures and mid-season over/unders for my best bets. While these two didn’t make the starting five, if you’re into betting super long shots, Milwaukee at 27-1 or Los Angeles (Clips) at 45-1 are my favorite flyers.
Dallas Mavericks NBA Finals +1800 or Denver Nuggets NBA Finals +1700
Here are my favorite value plays at the midway point of the season. OKC is the clear favorite to come out of the West and win the Finals at +250, and I understand why. They were literally my preseason finals pick. But seeing Dallas and Denver sitting at 18-1 and 17-1 is absurd. If I had to choose one, I’d lean toward Denver, simply because they have the best player in the world. That said, Dallas odds are equally appealing.
Dallas proved last season they could beat OKC in a playoff series. While OKC has undoubtedly improved since then, it can be argued that Dallas is also better. They lost Derrick Jones Jr. but replaced him with another high-level wing defender in Naji Marshall. Additionally, while Klay Thompson may be past his prime, he still provides a scoring punch that complements Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in ways they didn’t have last season. Derrick Lively II, a breakout star in last year's postseason, is more experienced and impactful in his second year.
OKC does match up well with Dallas, and Luka has struggled against their physical, blitz-heavy schemes this season. Still, I wouldn’t count Dallas out, especially in a playoff setting where adjustments are everything.
Denver has the more interesting case as a potential upset candidate against OKC in my opinion, which could not only benefit them but also Dallas, should Denver knock out the Thunder. Denver’s uniqueness stems from Nikola Jokic and the way he is able to manipulate the defense from an inside-out look, that is harder to rotate against then the typically high pick and roll blitz.
If Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are both healthy and effective together, the matchup becomes trickier for Jokic. But if either isn’t playing or their numbers together are poor, Denver and their size have a legitimate shot.
In the East, the top five teams are more of a mix-and-match situation when it comes to which matchups favor Denver versus Dallas. However, the prospect of having a 17-1 or 18-1 ticket just four wins away from cashing is both thrilling and opens up plenty of hedge opportunities.
. . .
Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Eastern Conference +360
+360 might not seem like outrageous odds, but for a team on a 71-win pace to simply win the conference, it feels a bit high. It seems bettors are still skeptical due to this core’s prior playoff struggles, but I assure you, this dish isn’t the same -- even if it contains the same ingredients. The preparation has changed. We’ve gone from an entry-level chef to a professional.
I’ve already written two separate film breakdowns of Cavaliers games, so you know how highly I regard their new offensive philosophy under Kenny Atkinson. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley in particular, look like completely different players in this system. The adjustments have unlocked their potential in ways we hadn’t seen before.
I’m not saying the Cavaliers are guaranteed to beat Boston, but at +360 odds, I’ll gladly take a swing.
. . .
Denver Nuggets Regular Season Wins O50.5 +100
Denver is starting to hit its stride. Winners of eight of their last ten games, the Nuggets hold the best offensive rating in the NBA during that span at 121.2. They’ve also cracked the top five in defense, and surprisingly, both stats are tied to the previously written off Russell Westbrook. While it’s hard to predict his postseason impact, Westbrook has brought significant value in the regular season.
When Westbrook shares the floor with Nikola Jokic, Denver is outscoring teams by 14 points per 100 possessions. The two have developed surprising synergy, with Westbrook playing more actively off the ball than ever before. The duo has connected for 133 assists between them, the second most in the NBA. Defensively, Westbrook has brought energy and intensity, making a noticeable impact on that end as well.
Adding to this resurgence, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are both starting to show flashes of their 2023 form. With the best player in the world leading the way, this team appears to have more than enough firepower to push past 50 wins this season.
. . .
Indiana Pacers Regular Season Wins O44.5 -110
If you haven’t been paying close attention, you might have missed that the Indiana Pacers are arguably the hottest team in basketball right now. They’re on a 12-4 run, including impressive road wins in Cleveland and Boston, which has propelled them to the sixth seed in the East. The fact that such a strong run only moved them up to sixth shows how much ground they had to make up earlier in the season, but from my perspective, it feels like they may have turned a corner for good.
That’s where I see value in the 44.5 win total, as this run doesn’t feel like a fluky few weeks but rather something sustainable. The surge began on December 13th, coinciding with Andrew Nembhard’s return to regular minutes. Since then, their offense has been electric, ranking third in the league over this stretch. Teams have been defending Tyrese Haliburton differently this season, and having Nembhard as a reliable release valve and secondary creator has been a huge boost.
What’s particularly notable is that this offensive success hasn’t relied on the Pacers usual frenetic pace. They’ve slowed things down, and whether that’s a philosophical shift or simply a response to how teams are defending them, it seems to be helping their defense.
Aside from Haliburton, the roster is filled with strong defenders, but they’ve rarely leaned into that identity. With a slower pace, their rangy athletes on the wings have been playing better defense, and Nembhard himself is a very solid point-of-attack defender. You don’t see many teams full court press in today’s NBA, but if you watch a Pacers game you'll likely witness a lot of it.
With Aaron Nesmith’s return on the horizon, the Pacers should get even better. Given their current trajectory, 45 wins feels like a very safe bet for this team.
. . .
Atlanta Hawks Regular Season Wins O41.5 -120
I’m sorry, but I absolutely refuse to believe this team will finish below .500. I bet on them to go over 36.5 wins in the preseason, wrote about how they were better than their record suggested in November, and now I’m doubling down with a bet on them to go over 41.5 wins.
I enjoy watching Atlanta, and maybe I just always catch them on the right night, but I’m consistently impressed by their roster construction and individual talent. Every time I tune in, they either win or put up a strong fight against quality opponents. Say what you will about him, but Trae Young is as dynamic a playmaker as anyone in the league. And he's surrounded by two-way wings and a strong center tandem in Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu.
They’re 5-6 against teams above .500, which is perfectly acceptable when chasing 42 wins. The real issue lies in their 13-10 record against sub-.500 teams, where they need to be more consistent and stop stooping down to their opponents.
With the 14th toughest remaining schedule -- middle of the pack -- I’m confident that their talent will overcome whatever has been holding them back against weaker opponents. There’s no need for deep analysis here. This team is simply too good, with too much talent, to finish below .500.
Comments