Potential Playoff Matchup: Nuggets Have a Wolf Pack Problem

Daniel Waddleton

Jan 26, 2025

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SINCE NIKOLA JOKIC'S superhero-like Game 5 performance in the 2024 Western Conference Semifinals, the Minnesota Timberwolves have had the Denver Nuggets number, defeating them in their next four matchups. The most recent win came yesterday on ABC, with the world watching.

The Timberwolves, now sitting at 24-21, have shown a spark in recent weeks after what had been a more or less doom-and-gloom first part of the season. They’ve climbed to 7th in the Western Conference standings and rank 11th in the league in net rating. Most importantly, their defense -- last season’s calling card during their 56-win campaign -- might be returning to form, up to 7th in the NBA.

Yesterday’s dominant 133-104 victory over Denver was some proof of their resurgence. Denver, winners of eight of their last nine and playing their best basketball of the season, couldn’t match Minnesota’s energy. The Wolves held the Nuggets to their lowest point total since Christmas, stifling an offense that had ranked first since the holiday.

Minnesota’s offense also exploded in this game, spearheaded by Anthony Edwards, who delivered a masterful performance with 34 points and 9 assists. Edwards also broke the franchise’s all-time three-point record, hitting his 976th career triple to surpass Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Wolves frontcourt pairing of Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert also made significant offensive contributions that helped push the Wolves over the top. We’ll break down their impact, the film behind Minnesota’s dominance, and why Denver might have a Timberwolves problem in this piece.

DENVER OPENED THE game with Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic. With Aaron Gordon still on a minutes restriction, Denver has opted to bring him off the bench so he can anchor the non-Jokic minutes as a small-ball five. This setup makes it easier for Michael Malone to stagger his rotations. As a result, Denver tasked Westbrook with guarding Julius Randle, hoping his mix of physicality and athleticism despite being 6'3 could bother the stronger forward.

Right from the jump, Minnesota went at this matchup.

I loved Randle’s aggression early on. It set the tone and remained a key factor in the Wolves’ success. They made a clear effort to attack smaller matchups, especially knowing Jokic isn’t much of a deterrent at the rim once he’s forced to rotate. Here, Randle bullies Christian Braun in the post.

This three-pointer was open for Jokic all series long in last year’s playoff matchup. The Wolves are fine conceding this shot and accepting if Jokic beats them from deep. He couldn’t last postseason, and it was a big reason why Denver lost. But with Jokic shooting 47% from three this year, this release valve will be critical in a potential playoff rematch.

Edwards’ playmaking is often criticized -- whether it’s his unwillingness to trust teammates or struggles making the right reads against traps and in congested lanes. But in this game, he was making all the right decisions, and his trust in his teammates paid off.

Here’s an early example where he finds Gobert slipping to the rim for an easy and-1 finish.

Miscommunication here by Denver on the backside, as both Jokic and Porter Jr. go to tag the roller. Gobert gets off an easy ready for the dunk in the short roll.

You could tell Edwards’ confidence in Gobert was growing. Normally, this is a shot Ant takes himself, but instead, he recognizes that his big man is playing aggressive and rewards him with a beautiful feed to end the quarter.

If you’re wondering how we’ve gotten the resurgence of Westbrook, here’s a prime example. Denver loves running this inverted, empty-side pick-and-roll action, where Westbrook can slip and receive a pinpoint pass from Jokic down the lane, leveraging his rim-finishing ability.

Really liked this set from Minnesota -- using Naz Reid’s guard-like skills and movement to get a smaller Murray switched onto him, where he can attack downhill at an advantage. The Wolves chipped away at Denver’s leaky rim protection all night.

To start the second quarter, Wolves rookie guard Rob Dillingham caught fire. I’m not sure how viable he’ll be as a playoff player -- he might be unplayable defensively -- but just having an offensive jitterbug like him as an option off the bench is a luxury. He’s super fun.

I get that Peyton Watson is still raw offensively, which makes it tough to play him heavy minutes, but his defensive upside is real. He has legit All-Defensive team potential. Here are two plays Denver needed more of in this one. First, some weak-side rim protection, and second, a deflection in pick-and-roll coverage. Two places the Wolves feasted all night.

Porter Jr. just looks overmatched in this matchup every time. Denver ran a similar action for him that they had used for Westbrook earlier, hoping to get him an easy look, and he completely botched the finish with nobody around. He looked spooked.

In last year’s playoff series, he averaged just 10 points on 37/32/77 shooting splits. Last night wasn’t much better. The Wolves’ physicality, combined with Porter’s shaky ball handling, makes it hard for him to generate offense when the defense is draped all over him off the ball.

This Wolves defense wears on Denver’s entire roster as the game goes on. Here’s an example: the Nuggets ran the same set that got Jokic a three early, but by this point, Nickeil Alexander-Walker had been hounding Murray at every opportunity. The initial look is open again, but Murray hesitates, which just eventually leads to a tough Jokic shot over Gobert’s excellent contest.

This just wasn’t a great Jokic game, especially on the defensive end. As always, Edwards started heating up in the second half. He’s exactly the type of player Denver struggles to defend, a downhill attacker with the counter of a lethal pull-up game.

First, he beats Murray off the dribble and gets to the rim, completely unbothered by Jokic’s presence near the rim.

Next, he exploits Jokic’s deep drop coverage for an easy three.

Then, he attacks the drop again. Braun does a slightly better job navigating the screen, but Ant keeps him on his hip, steps back, and completely shakes him for a smooth jumper.

The best way to slow down the Wolves when they get going like this is to blitz Edwards and force mistakes. Here, Denver does exactly that and forces a turnover. But if this were a playoff series, can Jokic handle blitzing 20 screens a game without it draining his legs? That’s the concern.

One of Denver’s better defensive possessions came late in the game. The Wolves ran the same set they used earlier for Naz Reid, but this time Julian Strawther cut off the drive. Denver rotated well on the backside and forced a miss. The notable part? Neither Murray nor Jokic was on the floor. They’ll need to be much better defensively with their stars on the court against this team.

This was one of my quicker-paced film breakdowns, mostly just trying to lay out the key reasons why the Wolves continue to give Denver problems. Maybe not my most polished breakdown, but still an effective one.

Finally, shoutout to Edwards for breaking the Wolves' franchise record for threes with this absolute bomb from the logo.