Party like It's 2016: The Cavaliers and Warriors Are Atop the NBA Standings

Daniel Waddleton

Nov 9, 2024

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Cavaliers / Warriors

MY PROFESSOR IN one of my sophomore year lectures used to always say, "What can go wrong, will go wrong." Last night was a perfect example. I was excited to watch back the film on the Cavaliers-Warriors game from last night and write a piece today, sharing insights about both teams with clips from the game.

Unfortunately, the Cavaliers were winning by 40 at halftime. The game was essentially over from the start, as the Cavs opened with a 20-2 run. Needless to say, there wasn’t much to analyze beyond maybe the first quarter.

These teams have been two of the biggest surprises in the standings so far this season, and rank second and third in net rating. While they've both been on my radar, I haven't had the chance to watch them much yet. Since this game didn’t offer the chance to "kill two birds with one stone," I had to improvise, watching pieces from other recent games to assess how each team has managed such hot starts.

LET'S START IN Cleveland with the 10-0 Cavaliers, who brought in new head coach Kenny Atkinson hoping he could optimize this talented roster. One of the most pressing challenges for Atkinson was solving the positional overlap in the front court. While Evan Mobley is listed as a forward, his skill set had been better suited to a center. Pairing him with Jarrett Allen is a promising idea defensively, but Mobley’s lack of outside shooting and hesitancy to assert himself offensively often made the fit clunky on the other end of the floor.

Last season, the pairing’s limitations were evident in the numbers. When Mobley and Allen shared the court, the Cavaliers outscored opponents by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions. In contrast, when Allen played without Mobley, the team’s net rating jumped to +5.8, and when Mobley played without Allen, it was +1.8.

The struggles carried into the postseason as well. Over the 2023 and 2024 playoffs, the duo’s net ratings were -0.3 and 0.0, respectively, meaning the Cavaliers were essentially breaking even with two of their best players on the floor together.

This left the team at a crossroads. Either Mobley needed to expand his offensive game to fit more as a forward, or Allen would likely need to be traded for cents on the dollar so the youthful Mobley could be optimized. This was Atkinson’s first task as head coach, and through the first ten games of this season, so far so good. The Cavaliers now boast an impressive +8.6 net rating per 100 possessions when Mobley and Allen share the court, a drastic improvement that can be credited largely to how Atkinson has adjusted the offense for Mobley.

For starters, the Cavaliers are playing faster this season, ranking ninth in the league in pace at 101.3. While it’s not groundbreaking, compared to the last two seasons with this core where they ranked 24th and 30th, it is clearly a change in philosophy under Atkinson.

Mobley has been one of the catalyst to this change, frequently grabbing rebounds and pushing the ball down the floor as a point forward. This has allowed him to show off his impressive ball-handling and body control for his size—skills that made him an intriguing prospect out of USC.

Even when he doesn't get the rebound, the Cavaliers guards are throwing him hit ahead passes in transition and allowing him to get downhill where Mobley has made plays both as a scorer and passer.

The Cavaliers’ success isn’t just about playing faster; their half-court offense has also taken a substantial leap. They currently lead the league in half-court points per possession at 1.10, thanks in part to Atkinson’s decision to use Mobley as an offensive hub more often.

Atkinson, coming from Golden State, obviously knows a thing or two about how to optimize a forward with offensive skills but limited shooting ability. Mobley while improved, still isn’t quite the outside shooter the Cavaliers might have hoped for, so by starting more actions with the ball in Mobley’s hands Atkinson has been able to help the offensive spacing.

This approach, reminiscent of how the Warriors utilize Draymond Green, makes it more difficult for teams to play off a non-shooter and help other parts of the defense, because Mobley is possessing the basketball. Now defenders who play too far off risk opportunities for shooters to come off handoffs and hit pull-up jumpers or for Mobley to build momentum driving downhill. It’s a simple yet effective adjustment that has dramatically improved the offense.

Atkinson has also utilized Mobley in inverted pick-and-roll situations, where they have good shooters play as the screeners. This is a common tactic employed by teams with big men who have guard-like skills, such as Chet Holmgren in Oklahoma City or Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee.

The action is particularly difficult to defend because switching creates a significant size mismatch, combined with the big man now having to defend the three point line, so the oversized ball handler gains an advantage at the rim.

Teams frequently get caught trying to overcompensate, leaving the shooter open for a clean three-point look. In this example, Cavaliers sharpshooter Sam Merrill benefits from the action. He flips the screen right as Mobley is about to go down hill, causing the Warriors to overcommit to stopping Mobley, wary of leaving Hield alone on this drive.

Atkinson has been able to apply similar principles to Jarrett Allen as well. The Cavaliers set Allen up in these empty-side dribble handoffs to take advantage of Allen’s athleticism and ability to finish in space. In this sequence, the defense overcommitted to Ty Jerome, leaving Allen with a wide-open lane for a dunk off the pocket pass.

Another concept Atkinson has brought over from Golden State is the unpredictability of where the Cavaliers will attack. This philosophy keeps defenses guessing, as it did with the Warriors, making it difficult for opponents to key in on any one player or action. Here’s an example of a vintage Warriors action.

In this clip, the play starts with a five out pick and roll between Ty Jerome and Isaac Okoro. This part of the action is nothing more than a decoy to shift the defense to the right. The second Jerome comes off the screen he fires a skip pass over to Mobley on the weak-side. This flows quickly into a dribble handoff between Mitchell and Mobley, where Mobley uses Michell's gravity to lose Valanciunas when rejecting the handoff and drives in for an easy dunk. Draymond Green has probably scored 4-6 points a game throughout his career on rejected handoffs just like this.

A critical piece of this diversified offense has been securing Donovan Mitchell’s buy-in to share the ball more and reduce his time of possession. Compared to last season, Mitchell’s time of possession while on the court has decreased by 7%, and his offensive load is down by three possessions per 100.

His scoring averages have dipped as a result even though he’s shooting the ball from the floor as well as ever. This shift in reality is a positive for the team, as a balanced offense will serve them better in a four-round playoff run. For the Cavaliers to find sustained playoff success, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley specifically, but also even Caris LeVert and Ty Jerome, will need to continue to emerge as dependable offensive threats, alongside Mitchell.

And that’s how we arrive at Darius Garland. Many, me included, overlooked the fact that Garland literally broke his jaw in the middle of last season, losing 12 pounds while being on a liquid only diet. Unsurprisingly, he struggled to get back to full strength and rhythm when he returned to the court.

This season, Garland looks rejuvenated—stronger and more confident on offense. He’s been empowered to take on a larger role, and there have even been late-game situations where Mitchell has taken a back seat and let Garland take control, running the offense in crucial moments. He currently ranks Top 10 in Offensive Win shares, and Top 15 in Offensive Box Plus-Minus.

Garland has always been an impressive pick and roll player, but this season the way he's played the in-between game as been eye popping in the early season. Luka Doncic is known as the master of this, but Garland only standing at 6'3 has also found a ton of success in this area.

Here's some examples of Garland making reads within that area.

Do I think the Cavaliers will finish the season with the league’s top offense? Probably not. But even if their offense can simply remain good with two bigs on the floor, it allows their defense to dominate. Mobley and Allen are a lethal back line of a defense, both elite rim protectors that also have the ability to switch out and guard in space

I think back to a game a couple nights ago against the Milwaukee Bucks, where Damian Lillard was repeatedly seeking switches to attack one of the bigs. Yet, Mobley and Allen were able to cover effectively, even when Lillard would get a step they could funnel him into the paint where the other could help protect the rim. This kind of versatility—two true big men who can defend both on the perimeter and in the paint—gives your defense a very high floor.

Am I sold on this team as a Finals contender after their hot start? Not quite. However, it’s hard to ignore the level of play they’ve sustained so far. The longer this team continues to perform at this level, the harder it becomes to argue that their playoff ceiling is capped.

FOR THE WARRIORS, everything begins with the seamless way Buddy Hield has stepped into the Klay Thompson role, but for $32 million less.

Hield has been stellar this season, averaging 19.1 points per game while shooting a blistering 49.4% from beyond the arc. While that percentage is likely to regress slightly over time, it’s no fluke—Hield has always been one of the league’s premier shooters. The Warriors’ offense has amplified his strengths, empowering him as a shooter and leveraging his gravity to create opportunities for others in ways he’s never experienced before.

Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors’ offense has always been defined by constant movement and relentless screening, forcing defenses to play near-perfect off-ball defense to avoid giving up wide-open layups or threes. Hield has played perfectly to this system, allowing the offense to not skip a beat despite the absence of the second-greatest shooter of all time.

Here’s some examples of the Warriors running similar actions with Hield that they used to run with Thompson.

While Thompson was never known as an elite passer, the Warriors’ system maximized his shooting gravity to generate open looks for his teammates. They are now doing the same with Hield, leveraging his presence to create high-quality opportunities for others.

And in transition, Hield has been a deadly catch and shoot three point threat giving them the same momentum swings that the Curry and Thompson duo were known for in the golden years.

The Warriors being able to hold onto this spacing has kept driving and cutting lanes open, and allow the Warriors offense to function how it always has. Now with the money saved by replacing Thompson with Hield, the Warriors were able to bolster their roster by acquiring combo guard De’Anthony Melton and forward Kyle Anderson, adding even more depth to an already strong group.

Melton has long been an diamond in the rough in this league, with his biggest challenge being staying healthy. When available, he’s a high-impact player: an excellent shooter, a solid playmaker, and an elite guard defender. Melton’s also always had positive on/off signals, dating back all the way to his time in Memphis. This season is no exception, as he currently boasts a +4.1 differential per 100 possessions. His skill set makes him a great fit next to Stephen Curry, and the Warriors have used him as their starting two-guard whenever he’s been healthy enough to suit up.

Meanwhile Kyle Anderson feels like he was destined to be a Warrior. Known as one of the smartest players in the league, Anderson is an exceptional passer despite not being a primary on-ball creator. His versatility is perfect for the Warriors' split-action-heavy offense, where he thrives as a passer, screener, or cutter. He’s also a versatile defender who can guard multiple positions, making him easy to insert with any lineup the Warriors want to play considering the number of different players they deploy each game.

By adding Melton and Anderson, the Warriors not only improved their roster but also maintained the flexibility and high basketball IQ that has been a hallmark of their success under Steve Kerr.

The best part about this Warriors team, in my opinion, is how well-balanced they are on both ends of the floor. They’re the only team in the league currently ranked in the top four in both offensive and defensive rating. Their 106.5 defensive rating is second-best in basketball and reaching that level has been a collective effort.

The centerpiece is obviously still Draymond Green, who has long been the defensive ace for the Warriors during their championship years. While he may no longer be at the transcendent defensive level he reached in his prime, Green remains one of the best defenders in the league. His intelligence, versatility, and leadership continue to set the tone for the Warriors on that end.

I'm sure there are other plays just as good if not better this season, but these are three of my favorite defensive plays I've seen from the 34 year old Green.

In this first clip Draymond Green initially gets cross-matched in transition with Jayson Tatum. First, he navigates through Queta’s screen to stay attached to Tatum. Then, as Al Horford slips behind him on that high pick and roll, Green quickly recognizes that Trayce Jackson-Davis has rotated over to provide rim protection. Anticipating Horford’s next pass, Green jumps the passing lane and deflects the ball, which eventually ricochets off Queta’s hands. Warriors’ ball.

In this clip, Green starts by denying Zion Williamson the ball far from the hoop, forcing the ball in the other direction. On the opposite side, Jose Alvarado beats Jonathan Kuminga off the dribble, prompting Green to step over and provide early help. The moment Alvarado leaves his feet, Green anticipates the pass is able to shoot back to Williamson where he make an impressive play, knocking the ball out of his hands from behind as he gathers for a shot.

In all of these clips there is a common theme: Draymond Green’s ability to guard multiple things at the same time. This clip is perhaps the best example I posses in my camera roll. Jalen Green is able to turn the corner on Trayce Jackson-Davis’ coming off a screen and drives downhill, creating a scoring lane. Draymond shows the early help from the weak side but is able to anticipate when Jalen Green is going to to try to throw that pass to an open Jabari Smith Jr. in the corner. Green deflects the pass, which momentarily lands back in the Rockets’ hands. As the ball is then swung around to the other corner for Jalen Green, Draymond rotates quickly enough to contest the shot, forcing a miss.

Another critical factor has been the resurgence of Andrew Wiggins. After navigating personal challenges over the past two years, Wiggins has said he’s finally able to put those struggles behind him and focus fully on basketball—and it shows. This season, Wiggins looks like the player who was an All-Star starter and the second-best player on the Warriors’ 2022 championship team. He’s been way more aggressive on both ends and just appears to be playing freer.

Specifically defensively, Wiggins has returned to an All-Defensive level as a point-of-attack defender, a crucial boost for the Warriors. His ability to take on multiple different tough assignments and disrupt opposing offenses has been instrumental in elevating the team’s defense to its current high standing.

Also one of the most fascinating aspects of this Warriors team is their ability to use unconventional lineups while maintaining their defensive integrity. They’ve shown a particular comfort level with going small, deploying four-guard lineups at times like the 6'3 killers of Stephen Curry, Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, and Buddy Hield. In these lineups, Podz unique rebounding ability at just 6’3 becomes a crucial asset, helping to offset the size disadvantage. Meanwhile, Payton’s defensive versatility allows him to guard virtually any wing in the league, providing the Warriors with flexibility and balance on both ends of the floor.

But this team isn’t limited to just small-ball tactics. They can size up and go big when necessary, rolling out physical lineups featuring Payton, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Trayce Jackson-Davis alongside a scoring guard like Curry or Hield. These lineups bring a combination of toughness and physicality that can overwhelm opponents while still fitting seamlessly into the Warriors’ high-IQ style of play.

What’s been most impressive is the consistency of their defensive excellence, regardless of the lineup on the floor. This speaks volumes about the front office’s success in assembling a roster of players who not only thrive within the team’s unique offensive system but also bring a high level of defensive ability. Whether playing fast and small or big and physical, the Warriors consistently disrupt their opponents while staying true to their identity.

As for their playoff outlook, I actually like the Warriors’ chances more than Cleveland’s in the long run, though I’m not yet ready to place either team in my inner circle of championship contenders. What the Warriors have in their favor is a core of players who have climbed the mountain before, and a supporting cast around that core that's undoubtedly better than it was during their 2022 championship run.

The challenge? The current state of the league. The NBA is not only deeper than it was in 2022, but the competition at the top is significantly stronger. Whether this improved roster can overcome those hurdles remains to be seen, but their blend of experience, adaptability, and defensive excellence gives them a fighting chance.