Non-NBA Cup Starting Five v3
- danny52615
- Dec 14, 2024
- 11 min read
Updated: Jan 30
Daniel Waddleton
Dec 13, 2024
Pacer Problems
After a promising run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, the Pacers entered this year with high hopes, retaining nearly all of their young core. However, things haven’t gone as planned. Sitting at 10-15 and ninth in the Eastern Conference, Indiana has struggled to recapture the success of last season.
The most obvious issue is Tyrese Haliburton’s regression. The version of Haliburton who was in MVP conversations a year ago or spearheaded the team’s playoff run just six months back feels like a distant memory.
His averages have dropped across the board to 17.5 points, 8.4 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game on 42/34/85 shooting splits—all significant declines from last season’s 20 points, 10.9 assists, and 3.9 rebounds on 48/36/86 splits. While his slump is a key factor, the teams struggles go deeper than Haliburton alone.
The Pacers defense has been a glaring issue, ranking 24th in defensive rating. This isn’t new for Indiana, but without their high-powered offense clicking, their defensive shortcomings have become a bigger problem. They rank in the league’s bottom third in opponent rim percentage, three-point percentage, and free throws allowed—indicators of a defense that struggles to take away literally anything.
Several factors contribute to their defensive woes. Injuries to Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith have weakened their perimeter defense, and Myles Turner’s regression on defense over the past year and a half has hurt a team that desperately needs him to be elite in rim protection.
Beyond personnel, there seems to be a lack of effort and focus. Anytime I turn on a Pacers game they often look disorganized and lethargic on defense, frequently making simple communication mistakes leading to wide open looks for opponents. This disorganization could be reflecting a team that lacks the joy and energy it had last season, and you wonder if that stems from their offensive struggles.
Offensively, the Pacers haven’t been able to replicate their success from last year, which has drained the teams spirit in my opinion. While their pace remains high, the rest of the league has caught up, with more teams playing at a similar tempo. Last season, the Pacers relentless transition game caught opponents off guard, but defenses are now better prepared. Indiana is 11 points worse per game off opponents misses compared to last year, encapsulating this.
Without elite shooters or elite drivers, it makes playing this style more difficult when teams are ready for it.
Teams are also defending Haliburton differently, as he’s faced more ball pressure than ever, with defenses crowding him higher up the floor to limit his space to operate. This has placed greater reliance on his teammates to step up in ball handling duties, but injuries—particularly Nembhard’s absence—have left a void that others haven’t been able to fill.
I’m not sure how many fixes there are in Indiana, and this team might be heading to NBA purgatory for years to come as a team that’s too good to blow it up, but too bad to be among the contenders.
We’ll see what happens when Nesmith returns, as his presence could help stabilize the rotations. Moving Bennedict Mathurin back to the bench might allow him to play more to his strengths with increased on-ball opportunities. Him and Haliburton have never had positive numbers playing together due to very different styles they prefer to play.
Then, as a result of this perhaps the starting group could work on rediscovering the success from their heavy movement and fast-paced magic that defined last season. Nesmith’s return should also bolster the defense—or so the team hopes.
For now, Indiana faces a tough road ahead, searching for answers in a season that feels like it’s getting late pretty early.
. . .
The Forever Memphis Playoff Outlook Questions Have A New Twist
It’s not shocking—we predicted it in the preseason—Memphis is once again among the best teams in the West with their core fully healthy. The trio of Morant-Bane-Jackson hasn't finished worse than second in the Western Conference since 2021 when all three are available for a full season. True to form, the Grizzlies currently sit second in the West, a little over a quarter of the way through the season.
Ja Morant is a dark horse MVP candidate, Jaren Jackson Jr. is playing the best basketball of his career, and the roster is loaded with talent from top to bottom. The team ranks fourth in net rating and stands alone as the only squad in the league to be top-seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. As a regular-season powerhouse, Memphis has proven to be as consistent as they come.
Yet, the same nagging question persists: Can this team generate enough half-court offense in the playoffs to win multiple series?
History has not been kind in this department. The last two times Memphis finished second in the West, their offense crumbled in the postseason. In 2022-23, they posted a 114.7 offensive rating during the regular season, only for it to plummet to 102.8 in the playoffs. The year before, their 114.3 regular-season rating dropped to 109.8 in the postseason.
This season, the Grizzlies boast a 116.9 offensive rating, but why should we believe it will be different in the playoffs? Basketball guru Ben Taylor, creator of Thinking Basketball, may have found an answer. The Grizzlies offense this season features a unique wrinkle—not just for them but for the league as a whole: they barely run pick-and-roll.
And by "barely", I mean barely. According to second spectrum the league average for pick-and-rolls and handoffs run per game is 88. The second-lowest team, Boston, runs 71. Memphis? They’re dead last at just 43 pick-and-rolls per game. That’s less than half the league average.
So how are they generating offense? Well, I’ll try my best to do Mr. Taylor justice with my explanation here. The Grizzlies offense is built around drives and spacing, allowing unique isolation players like Morant and Jackson to attack massive gaps in the lane. Meanwhile, their teammates move in sync around them, almost orbiting on a string, adjusting their positions based on the direction of the drive. This constant movement keeps help defenders occupied; and if they linger in help, their man has already relocated for an open look.
This may be difficult to visualize with words, so I have a clip to give an example.
In this play, you can see Brandon Clarke set a ghost screen—lining up as if he’s about to set the screen but slipping away before making contact with De'Aaron Fox. This subtle move keeps Fox from getting screened and gives DeMar DeRozan the illusion that he’s fine to stick with Clarke.
Now watch as Morant gets downhill everyone around him move in unison. Bane slides to the corner, occupying his defender Murray, and Wells cuts baseline, occupying Monk. On the weak side, Jackson slides up, momentarily drawing Sabonis attention. All of this movement clears the lane for Morant—one of the quickest and most explosive drivers in NBA history—to glide to the rim for an almost uncontested layup.
I won't bore you with film study here, but this concept has been a major factor in Memphis ability to generate offense without relying on a modern pick-and-roll-heavy approach that teams are used to playing against. The Grizzlies also play at an incredible pace, leveraging these five-out concepts in transition to create easy opportunities while defenses scramble to get set.
On average, Memphis is taking their first shot within 12.6 seconds of the shot clock—a pace that ranks second-fastest in NBA history since 1997, trailing only the 2018-19 Oklahoma City Thunder. Their unconventional lineups and innovative offensive philosophy have made the Grizzlies one of the most unique teams in the league today.
Will this modern five-out offense with a unique twist be the key to changing this team’s postseason destiny? It’s a question that can only truly be answered come April. But at the very least, Memphis is experimenting with something rarely seen in today’s NBA, and that alone will make them a fascinating playoff team.
In the words of Draymond Green after one of their matchups this season “What they’re doing is weird, what they’re doing I haven’t seen. Like if the guy drives right, the whole thing moves right, if you drive middle, the whole team is rotating".
. . .
Kris Dunn's Defense
The Clippers projected win total in Vegas plummeted to just 35.5 games by the time the season was set to begin, with Kawhi Leonard's return nowhere in sight. Fast forward two months, and that number has skyrocketed to 43.5 wins—even with Leonard’s status still remaining uncertain.
While several players have stepped up offensively to keep the Clippers competitive, the teams resurgence is primarily rooted in defense. Currently ranked sixth in the league on that end, there’s plenty of credit to go around, but one players impact stands above the rest.
Kris Dunn, the journeyman guard, has found incredible success this season in Los Angeles. It hasn't been a secret that Dunn is an elite defender—his defensive impact numbers have always signaled this—but this season has been extraordinary, even by his standards.
Dunn’s defensive on/off per 100 possessions is an eye-popping -12.8, ranking in the 99th percentile among guards. When Dunn is on the floor, the Clippers allow just 103.4 points per 100 possessions—equivalent to Oklahoma City’s league-best defensive rating.
Let’s put Dunn’s numbers into perspective by comparing them to some of the best defenders in basketball:
Jrue Holiday, long considered maybe the best guard defender in the sport, has a -4.5 on/off rating, and the Celtics allow 110.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Dyson Daniels, the sexy name among defensive guards this season, has a -1.1 on/off, with the Hawks allowing 114.8 points per 100 possessions when he plays.
Clearly, it’s time Dunn has graduated from being compared to just other guards in terms defensive impact. How about we compare him to the best.
Rudy Gobert, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, has a -10.8 on/off, and the Timberwolves allow 106.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Close, but Dunn still edges him out.
Victor Wembanyama, the frontrunner for this years Defensive Player of the Year, boasts a -11.5 on/off while the Spurs allow 110.4 points per 100 possessions with him in the game. Wemby is the best defender in basketball and these numbers are staggering, and yet Dunn still has been more impressive from just a calculator stand point.
Jaren Jackson Jr., projected to finish second in Defensive Player of the Year this season, has a -8.2 on/off, and Memphis allows 105.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. Again, great numbers, but Dunn’s defensive metrics come out ahead.
Men lie, woman lie, numbers don't. Kris Dunn is as elite as they come in this league.
He has a case as the best point-of-attack defender in all of basketball, and can switch onto anyone and consistently force misses in isolation. He has quick hands, elite screen navigation, and his physicality make it difficult to run off-ball actions for his man. These three plays show a lot of these abilities.
What I think puts Dunn over the top though, are his off-ball instincts. It’s as if he knows what the ball handler is going to do before they even decide. Words can’t fully capture his brilliance, so here are some clips that let his defense speak for itself. Try to watch the on-ball actions while keeping a close eye on Dunn away from the play.
. . .
The Nets Can Make You Better!
The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the more surprising teams through the first two months of the season. They’ve played well above expectations, posting a 15-8-1 record against the spread. Shoutout to new head coach Jordi Fernandez, who has done an exceptional job optimizing this roster.
However, their actual record of 10-14 is less impressive, and only good for eighth in the Eastern Conference. While they’ve been competitive, the team is unlikely to pose a serious threat to anybody in the postseason, let alone actually make a run.
Given this, it makes sense for the Nets to consider offloading some of their higher-level players to contenders, both to acquire draft capital and to improve their own pick position in the loaded 2025 draft. The Nets have several intriguing pieces who could help contending teams immediately.
Let’s break down the main ones:
Cameron Johnson, Forward
18.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.9 APG, 65.9 TS%
Depending on how the trade market unfolds, Cameron Johnson could become one of the most impactful players moved at the deadline. Standing at 6'8, Johnson is an elite sharpshooter, hitting 43.5% of his threes this season, and he doesn’t just rely on others to create his looks. He’s demonstrated real off-the-bounce shot creation this season, which adds significant value in the playoffs when defenses are more locked in closing out harder and spot-up shooters with limited skillsets are less effective. Not to mention, he’s no negative defensively either.
Dennis Schroder, Guard
18.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 6.5 APG, 58.3 TS%
Dennis Schroder has always been an impressive playmaker, but he’s elevated his game to new heights this season. He’s averaging a career-high in assists and scoring the most points since 2020, thriving as a jitterbug lead guard who can penetrate the paint at will. It’s not just empty stats either, the Nets overachieving has as much to do with him as anybody on this roster. Add in his solid point-of-attack defense and elite screen navigation, he’s a player every contender should have on their radar. I’m begging the Thunder to trade for him as their sixth man, but if they don’t, someone else will—and that team will gain an offensive boost come playoff time.
Dorian Finney-Smith, Forward
10.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 61.7 TS%
If you looked up "3&D" in a basketball dictionary, you'd probably find a picture of DFS. Finney-Smith isn't going to wow you throughout an NBA game, but he's the exact kind of players contenders covet. A 6'7 low usage wing who thrives in a role, who can knock down spot up three's with ease (43% on catch and shoot threes), and can defend multiple positions on the other end. To top it all off, he's on a great contract.
. . .
Injuries Are As Bad As Ever
Last season, many fans criticized the Boston Celtics path to an NBA championship for being too easy. While it’s fair to say the playoff bracket broke in their favor, allowing them to avoid New York, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia until the conference finals, by the time they got there, all three teams had been eliminated anyways.
Injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and basically the Knicks entire roster by the end of the Pacers series derailed all teams chances to get a shot at Boston. The result was one of the most underwhelming Eastern Conference playoffs in years—reminiscent to some of those 2010s eastern playoffs when LeBron James essentially slept walked through the conference. The injuries weren’t just disappointing but also likely hurt playoff TV ratings.
Now this season, injuries have reached alarming levels once again. A staggering 16 players who were All-Stars last season have already missed time. Across the league as a whole, NBA players have lost 40% more games to injury compared to the same point last year. This surge in injuries is happening despite players seemingly getting more rest than ever, with load management now a staple of the regular season.
Here’s my theory: NBA games are more physically taxing than ever before, despite the nostalgic claims that “none of these guys would make it in the ’90s”. The game today has little room for rest on the court. Every player on the floor now pretty much has the ability to shoot, drive, and handle the ball. Constant off ball movement combined with faster-paced offenses has become the norm.
In the 2010s, the average pace of NBA offenses was 94.55. In the 2020s, it has jumped to 99.09. Players are constantly on the move and expending more energy to defend offenses that not only move faster but where nearly everyone is highly skilled.
Is there a solution? Well, it’s clearly to lessen the number of games in a season, but the NBA would never do that, so with that out of the equation I’m not sure there is.
The one thing this theory does highlight is the advantage of youth in the league. It’s no coincidence that last year’s conference finals teams were predominantly made up of players on the right side of the 30-year-old mountain. As the game continues to demand more, younger and fresher legs might increasingly become the key to success throughout the long season.
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