Starting Five v2
- danny52615
- Nov 26, 2024
- 9 min read
Updated: Jan 30
Daniel Waddleton
Nov 26, 2024
I HAD LOADS of fun writing this piece last week, so I thought, why not run it back? This NBA season has been nothing short of wild, and it wasn’t hard to come up with a starting five of NBA topics that have been swirling around in my mind.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Has Finally Stopped Fouling (As Much)
Jaren Jackson Jr., the former 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year likely won't be taking home the hardware again this season, considering his 14-to-1 odds, yet I do believe this has been his best defensive season to date.
That might sound surprising given that his blocks per game have nearly been cut in half compared to his DPOY campaign. That eye-popping block percentage, which likely secured the 2022-23 award, has also dropped significantly—from 5.1% to 3.1%.
The key difference this season is his fouling. Currently posting the lowest foul rate of his career, Jackson has made a noticeable effort to be less aggressive on rim contests. This has allowed him to stay on the floor and remain engaged without the constant fear of picking up that next foul that will lead him to the bench.
During his 2022-23 award season Jackson led the league in fouls. So far this season, he’s dropped all the way to 12th. For someone contesting as many shots at the rim as he does, fouling is almost inevitable. But Jackson has learned to pick his spots—he's no longer chasing every block opportunity. Instead, he’s become more disciplined, knowing when to gamble and when to simply contest straight up.
You feel as if Jackson has matured, he’s become wiser, shifting his focus away from highlight plays and raw statistical achievements. This evolution has directly benefited the Grizzlies, whose defensive rating is even better than it was during the 2022-23 campaign.
By focusing less on raw stats, some of Jackson’s advanced numbers have soared to career highs. The Grizzlies are 14 points better defensively when he’s on the court, ranking in the 98th percentile among big men. He’s holding teams to just 56% shooting at the rim against him, a figure nearly identical to his DPOY season. The difference though, is his reduced eliminates easy points at the free-throw line that aren’t represented in his rim protection numbers. It’s truly an eye-test thing with Jackson, and when you watch these games, it is evident.
It's also worth highlighting Jackson's improvement in defensive rebounding when playing as the lone big on the floor. This was an area of concern in the past, whether with the Grizzlies or during his stint with Team USA in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. In the 2022-23 season, opponents grabbed 30% of their missed shots when Jackson played the five, but this season, he’s reduced that number to 24%, representing a whopping 60-percentile improvement. This growth has addressed a major weakness and made Jackson even more effective as a defensive anchor.
While I’m not necessarily lobbying for him to win Defensive Player of the Year again, his improvements give him a compelling case. Unfortunately, any potential campaign is complicated by the presence of a certain 7’5" alien in Texas who’s redefining rim protection altogether.
. . .
The Unconventional Micro-Ball Thunder
Isiah Hartenstein’s return the other night may make this topic less relevant, but I couldn’t help reflecting on it. We all remember the 2020 Bubble Rockets and their micro-ball experiment. With 6’7” Robert Covington as their tallest player, 6’5” P.J. Tucker guarding centers, and 6’3” Russell Westbrook as the best defensive rebounder. The team was basically just trying to maximize floor spacing to give James Harden as much space as humanly possible to operate in isolation.
Post-trade deadline when the team cut ties with center Clint Capela, that Rockets team averaged 45 three-point attempts per game, making 35% of them. They were both taking, and making, the most threes in the league. That was the idea. Let Harden iso, let Westbrook get downhill, and if teams help the rest of the court can shoot.
Fast forward to 2024, where the Oklahoma City Thunder have been rolling out a similar micro-ball lineup due to injuries to their big men. Jalen Williams and Lu Dort, standing 6’7” and 6’5”, have taken on center duties. Everyone on the floor can switch defensively and shoot offensively, creating space for guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to thrive
The difference? During the seven-game stretch without Holmgren or Hartenstein, the Thunder were averaging just 40 three-point attempts per game (10th in the league) and hitting only 32% of them (17th). They made just 13 threes per game, far below what you’d expect from a small-ball team.
Yet, the Thunder kept winning, maintaining a positive record in those games. This underscores why they remain my finals favorite. The lineups with Williams at center were an impressive +9.3, and their defensive versatility made it difficult for opponents to capitalize on size mismatches.
Adding to their intrigue, the Thunder have frequently use guards in the dunker spot—Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Lu Dort lead the league in time spent there among guards. They’re beating teams with this unconventional small-ball approach, even without fully leveraging the traditional strengths of small-ball
Even stats like during this stretch the team was just middle of the pack in pace, but also middle of the pack in offensive rebounding. Everything about this team is unique, and I can’t wait to see how Mark Daigneault adjusts his lineups in the postseason based on matchups.
I’m not even sure this means anything, as since Hartenstein has returned, he’s been excellent, and the Thunder are 2-0 since. Still, this unusual approach during his absence caught my attention, showing just how interesting and adaptable this Thunder team.
. . .
Stephon Castle: The Rookie We Should Talk About More
Understandably, 76ers rookie Jared McCain and Lakers rookie Dalton Knecht have taken the bulk of attention from this rookie class due to their early scoring outbursts. McCain is currently the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year with -170 odds, while Knecht is the only other rookie with odds under 10-1 for the award.
However, my personal favorite rookie so far plays in San Antonio. Spurs combo guard Stephon Castle has been incredibly impressive in the early going. After seeing limited playing time during the first few weeks of the season, Castle has started to shine with an increase in minutes.
Since a November 9 game against Utah, when his playing time began to consistently fall in the 28–33 minute range, he has averaged 15.7 points and 5.1 assists a night while shooting 36.5% from three. The Spurs have gone 6-3 during this stretch, which isn’t surprising given they are six points better per 100 possessions with Castle on the court.
My love for Castle begins with the case that he might be the best pound-for-pound defender in this rookie class. He excels as an point-of-attack defender and has a natural instinct for making impactful plays off the ball.
In this first clip, you see Castle’s off-ball instincts. He recognizes that Victor Wembanyama’s length is cutting off Kevin Huerter’s passing lane to his assignment, and anticipates the pass will likely be heading to Domantas Sabonis. His quickness allows him to get there with ease and it's a nice steal.
In the next clip, we see that coveted point of attack defense when covering one of the league’s premier offensive players, De’Aaron Fox. Castle stays in front and then uses his length to tip the jump shot.
Defense was what got Castle selected fourth overall in last summer’s draft, but his offensive flashes have been exciting early on.
At the end of the Fox clip, he showed excellent body control on his drive by hanging in the air to finish the layup. Throughout this young season, Castle has displayed impressive change of pace on drives, and has been utilizing a deceleration step to navigate defenders. Here’s an example of that move after yet another strong defensive play.
Don't get it twisted, this kids got some creator juice. Look at this move.
Coming into the league offensively, Castle’s tight handle and elite feel for the game were well-documented strengths, but there were questions about his jump shooting and ability to make consistent high level decisions as a primary ball handler.
So far, he’s alleviating some concerns about his shooting by knocking down threes at a fine clip for a rookie. His jumper looks smooth, and if he continues to develop in this area, his offensive impact will obviously only grow.
The next step in his progression will be improving as an on-ball decision-maker in a lead role. Right now, Castle’s high basketball IQ helps him find assists throughout a game, but he still has strides to make as a primary initiator.
When watching the Spurs it feels about right that when Castle shares the court with Chris Paul, the Spurs are +8.7 per 100 possessions. Without Paul, that number drops to -3.6. Playing alongside Paul allows Castle to fall into a connective piece without the burden of running the offense. However given his skill set, there’s every reason to believe he can grow into that role as he gets more experience and reps.
. . .
The Lakers Are Probably Due For Regression
The Los Angeles Lakers are a respectable 10-6, sitting fourth in the West, and so far so good on JJ Redick as the new head coach being a smart move. Appears not a horrible first month in Los Angeles.
However, a closer look at their performance raises concerns that this team might regress as the season progresses. Some red flags are already waving, starting with the fact that the Lakers have only beaten three teams above .500 and face the fourth-hardest remaining schedule in the league.
Digging deeper into the numbers, the Lakers are one of only two teams in the West's top 12 with a negative point differential. The other is the Suns, who boast an 8-1 record with Kevin Durant but are just 1-6 without him. Based on the way the Lakers are preforming night in and night out, they would be considered lucky to have the record they do.
It’s been the defense that’s been the biggest issue despite a solid record. The Lakers currently own the second-worst adjusted defensive rating in the NBA. Since their 2020 championship run, their defensive personnel has clearly worsened, but Anthony Davis has typically served as a band-aid for their flaws. This season though, the Lakers are shockingly worse defensively when Davis is on the court—a first since he arrived in Los Angeles.
Another shocking first is in LeBron James 22-year career, this is the first season he holds a negative on/off net rating per 100 possessions. He is still putting up raw numbers, and when games hang in the balance, he can still turn it on if need be, but he is just not one of the most impactful players on the court throughout a game anymore. It’s a clear sign of father time, that shouldn’t come as a surprise for a near 40-year-old.
The long-standing cornerstone of this team even through the peaks and valleys of this 2020’s era—the LeBron-Davis tandem—is being outscored by seven points per 100 possessions. Needless to say, a scary stat when you consider the rest of the roster.
There are bright spots. Rookie Dalton Knecht has emerged as an unexpected contributor, and Austin Reaves continues to validate his role as a key player. Still, the roster as a whole feels very meh. A trade involving D’Angelo Russell and future picks seems inevitable, but whether the Lakers can secure a difference-maker in return is uncertain.
At their current trajectory, the Lakers seem more like a play-in team than a legitimate top-four seed. If you're holding Lakers stock, now might be the time to sell. I could see them as an eight seed by as soon as Christmas.
. . .
Karl-Anthony Towns Just Won't Miss
We anticipated that both Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks would thrive offensively with him returning to his preferred position at center, but this has been beyond expectations. The Knicks are scoring a staggering 125.9 points per 100 possessions when Towns is on the court.
Having Towns at center doesn’t just open the paint for his teammates—it opens it for himself as well. Towns is averaging a career-high 26.5 points per game and shooting a career-best 47% from three on over five attempts per game. He’s been impressive beating bigger, slower defenders off the dribble when they overplay his three-point shot.
Individually, Towns ranks second in offensive win shares and fifth in offensive box plus-minus, an advanced look at his dominance.
If your teams defensive anchor prefers drop coverage, you’re in trouble against this Knicks offense. Off the top of my head I can think of a matchup with Brook Lopez, one of the NBA’s elite defensive bigs, who found himself repeatedly beat by Towns in their recent matchup.
Here the Bucks opening the game trying to ice a side pick-and-roll, attempting to funnel the ball handler toward Lopez. Towns simply fades out to the top of the key for a look at a three. You then see later in the game after screen action where Towns pops, this time forcing Lopez to attempt a hard close out—only for Towns to blow by him effortlessly for a drive.
In another sequence, Lopez prioritized protecting the rim in transition, which allowed Towns to step into an easy walk-up three. A few possessions later, Lopez adjusted by staying higher in transition to prevent another open three, but Towns exploited the overcommitment with another blow-by, leaving no rim protection behind since Giannis had to stay attached to Mikal Bridges.
The team is still four points per 100 possessions better on defense when Towns is off the floor, which has hurt him in catch-all advanced metrics. However, his offensive contributions—both by the eye test and in the numbers—have been undeniable. It’s worth giving credit to a player who has endured his fair share of criticism from the media and is now shining in a role that fully utilizes his unique skill set.
I wonder what a guy like Anthony Edwards could accomplish with this kind of floor spacing?
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