NBA Cup Check-In

Daniel Waddleton

Dec 5, 2024

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COME ON! AS a fan of this league, how can you say you don’t enjoy the NBA Cup? I mean, I was just fully invested in a fourth quarter where the Orlando Magic were down 31 points because if they lost by 38, the Boston Celtics were going to advance to the knockout stage over them.

Yes, this tournament is funky and undeniably gimmicky—but let’s face it, we have to sit through an 82-game season. If six of those games are different, more exciting, and meaningful, sign me up!

I enjoyed the NBA Cup last year, I’m loving it this year, and I’m pumped for the knockout stage next week. If nothing else, the tournament has produced us some really interesting matchups coming up with high-stakes early in the season—something that in the past has been nearly impossible to come by in December.

No, it’s not the NBA Playoffs, and nobody is pretending it is. But we can’t ignore the fact that most players who’ve been asked about the NBA Cup have said it raises the stakes. Between the $500,000 prize each player on the winning team takes home, and the champagne-soaked celebration that follows hoisting up the Cup, there’s no denying these games feel bigger than your average regular season matchup.

These are the most competitive athletes in the world—that’s how they got to the NBA. And as we saw in last year’s knockout stage, effort levels were risen. Benches shortened, rotations tightened, and players gave playoff-like intensity.

The NBA Cup is delivering exactly what it promised: more stakes, more excitement, and more drama in what is typically a dead period during an NBA season. Now let’s talk some real hoops as we look ahead to next week!

(Stick around until the end for a quick check-in on how my pre-Cup predictions are standing, or you can just click here)

Quick Matchup Previews Guide

Hawks @ Knicks

Magic @ Bucks

Warriors @ Rockets

Mavericks @ Thunder

Eastern Conference

Hawks @ Knicks

This should be a fun matchup. The Knicks have clear championship aspirations, while the Hawks are likely more focused on just making the playoffs this season. However, this Atlanta team is frisky. Two weeks ago, I wrote about them as a team better than their record was indicating, and since then, they've managed to emerge from a group featuring both the Celtics and Cavaliers.

The Hawks are stacked with versatile, rangy wings you would typically find on any good team, and whether you like him or not, Trae Young’s brilliance in big games is undeniable. Aside from one rough series against Miami in 2022, Young has consistently delivered on the big stages with huge statistical performances.

Dyson Daniels also won’t be making life easy for Jalen Brunson. The 6'8 guard with a 6'11 wingspan has already begun building a strong case for First-Team All-Defense this season. With some of the best hands in basketball and elite defensive instincts, he’s a nightmare matchup for lead guards.

All that said, I’m picking New York. For starters, the Knicks not only own the league’s best offensive rating, but they’re achieving it against set defenses. They lead the NBA in points per possession in the half court, a statistic that typically correlates with success in bigger games. Unsurprisingly, they also top the league in pick-and-roll points per game, thanks in large part to the dynamic partnership of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, whose skillsets enhance each other.

This year’s Knicks feel like the opposite of last season’s squad. While last year’s team felt built for regular-season dominance but limited in the postseason, this season’s team feels designed for playoff success. They've sacrificed depth for star power, and in games like these when the rotations will shorten and every possession will mean a little more, the Knicks will thrive.

Tuesday night’s performance hinted at this groups ability to rise in big games and their defense to meet the moment. I expect more of the same here and like the Knicks in this matchup.

Magic @ Bucks

In all honesty, this feels like the least compelling game of the four. The Bucks have hit their stride lately, and their defense has significantly improved compared to last season, thanks in part to an influx of young talent.

Players like AJ Green and Andre Jackson have provided a spark with their above-average point-of-attack defense, which in turn has allowed Brook Lopez to regain the form that nearly earned him Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2022-23. While Lopez is an elite rim protector, agility isn’t his strength. If guys are running free off screens all game Lopez is not nearly as effective being pulled away from the basket.

The ability of the point-of-attack defenders to navigate screens, funnel players into Lopez, and maintain the structure of the defense has been crucial. This setup lets Lopez thrive, leveraging his size, discipline, and impeccable timing to force misses and block shots.

Combine this defensive improvement with the imminent return of Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s supernova season, and Damian Lillard rounding back into form after a transitional year in Milwaukee, and the Bucks become a sneaky finals contender in my opinion. I think this NBA Cup knockout round becomes a good opportunity for them to show what they are capable of fully healthy.

The Magic have been impressive in Paolo Banchero’s absence, with Franz Wagner playing at an All-NBA level and the team boasting the third-best defensive rating in basketball. They’ve won 12 of their last 14 games, and until their recent loss, they looked nearly unbeatable.

However, that most recent loss highlights my biggest concern with Orlando. In this league, I firmly believe that to win the biggest games, you must be able to hit a certain offensive baseline, and I’m not sure the Magic are there yet. Banchero’s eventual return and his ability to coexist more effectively with Wagner will be a step in the right direction, but he’s not going to be available for this one.

I don't see the supporting cast supplying enough offensive firepower here. I’ll take the Bucks in this one.

Hypothetical Vegas Matchup: Bucks vs Knicks

In a potential Knicks vs. Bucks matchup, I want to pick Milwaukee with the way they are playing, but I can’t. The Knicks are a tough matchup for the Bucks, whose preferred drop coverage in pick and roll with Brook Lopez has shown vulnerabilities against elite shooting bigs. Karl-Anthony Towns torched them in their first matchup, and I fear something similar could happen again.

The Bucks countered in the second half of that game by assigning Giannis to guard Towns while Lopez shifted to Hart. This adjustment helped stop the bleeding but isn’t Milwaukee’s preferred defensive approach. They’d rather keep Giannis as a roamer, where his agility at 6'11 shines compared to Lopez. The challenge becomes even greater when Giannis goes to the bench, as now there’s no reliable option for the Towns assignment. Bobby Portis, the only other big available is, to put it kindly, a below-average defender.

Meanwhile, the Knicks have plenty of individual options to throw at Milwaukee's offensive engines. Bridges has always defended Lillard tough, good results or not. Hart has both the defensive instinct and strength to at least make it tough on a big but crafty scoring wing like Middleton. And OG Anunoby is one of the premier defenders in all of basketball, who will likely take the Giannis assignment.

The question will be can the Knicks defense rise again to play connective team defense like they did in the Magic game on Tuesday night, instead of the mess they have been displaying for the better part of the season. Based mostly on the first meeting between these two and how it looked, I’ll go with the Knicks here.

Western Conference

Warriors @ Rockets

The Rockets have been the surprise team of not just the NBA Cup, but the entire season so far. Sitting second in the West, they’ve made their mark with a vicious defense, which currently ranks second in the league. Their starting lineup holds opponents to just 103 points per 100 possessions, and the first two players off the bench—dubbed the "Terror Twins" by the Rockets broadcast—turn the defense up even another level.

Amen Thompson and Tari Eason have become game-changers. When opponents see them checking in, it evokes the same dread as LeBron's infamous reaction during the 2014 Finals when Kawhi Leonard subbed back in. Watching these two unleash like wild predators on opposing offenses under the direction of defense-minded coach Ime Udoka has been a revelation.

The big question for the Rockets, both in this game and as a future playoff team, is their offense. They rank 16th in offensive rating, but their 28th ranking in effective field goal percentage and 27th in true shooting percentage highlight their struggles in the half-court. Houston thrives on points off turnovers and in transition, but when forced into a set offense, they struggle to generate efficient shots.

Golden State’s key to success is obvious: limit turnovers and force Houston to create quality looks against their own solid defense. The Warriors rank fifth in defensive rating, so don't expect a 133-130 finish in this one.

Alperen Sengun has quietly become a sneaky-good defensive player for the Rockets this season. However, it’s worth noting that the Warriors have spent the past decade playing archetypes like him off the floor with their constant movement and screening offense. As a result, we may see Jabari Smith Jr. small ball five minutes at a larger rate then usual, as a way to counter Golden State’s ability to exploit traditional rim protecting centers.

While Golden State was my pre-tournament pick to win the NBA Cup—and I’m holding a +750 ticket for them to make the finals—I’m leaning toward Houston here. The Rockets youth, hunger, and motivation to prove themselves on a big stage give them the edge, especially with Draymond Green banged up.

Give me Houston in this one, even if I will be rooting for Golden State.

Mavericks @ Thunder

The best playoff series from the 2024 playoffs is back, this time on another big stage. Oklahoma City fans might cringe when PJ Washington lines up that first corner three after last spring, but aside from that I imagine that home crowd will be pumped for this one. When I saw this game on the schedule, I was very excited—and I believe this is easily the best game heading into next week.

Last season, the Mavericks had two key advantages in their playoff series victory: exploiting Josh Giddey and dominating the offensive glass. Since then the Thunder have addressed both weaknesses. The trade of Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso and the free agent signing of Isaiah Hartenstein have eliminated those advantages, shoring up their defense and rebounding.

Oklahoma City currently sits first in the league in net rating, living up to their billing as Western Conference favorites. Shai Gilgious-Alexander is in the middle of an early MVP race and Jalen Williams might be the most underrated player in basketball. This team has stars, is deep, and everybody has bought into their role.

Meanwhile, Dallas has rebounded from a rocky start, thanks in part to a “Luka reset.” They now rank fourth in offense and hold a very respectable eighth spot on defense, proving they’re once again a formidable contender. Quentin Grimes’ increased minutes lately have been an encouraging sight. He currently leads the team in on/off per 100 possessions with an impressive +13.2, showcasing the impact he's had on the court this season.

This is a clash of titans type game and I hope we get some real playoff vibes in December for this one. In the end, Oklahoma City is my updated pick to win the tournament, and I think this game will be their toughest challenge. Lu Dort feels like he was created in a lab to defend Luka Doncic, and I expect him to hound the Dallas’ superstar all night, as he typically does.

As long as we don't get 47% PJ Washington on Wednesday night, I feel good about OKC for this one.

Hypothetical Vegas Matchup: Rockets vs. Thunder

In a potential Rockets vs. Thunder matchup, I’d again lean toward Oklahoma City. They feel like a more polished version of what Houston is building. We spoke about Houston's half court struggles earlier, and one of the last teams you want to see if that's the case is Oklahoma City. If this game finished 89-82, I wouldn't be shocked.

Also having the two best players on the court—SGA and Williams—is an advantage I will typically lean towards if the infrastructure of each team feels comparable.

Hypothetical NBA Cup Final: Thunder vs. Knicks

A Knicks-Thunder final would be a great scenario for the league. A huge market like New York, playing against maybe the best team in basketball. This game would have a little bit of everything, from superstar players, guys facing their former teams, and a basketball style played about as modern as it gets with all the positional versatility and shooting on the floor at the same time.

In my pre-cup preview, I highlighted the Thunder as a team built for this tournament, although injuries too both their big men initially made me hesitant to pick them to win it. With those questions resolved and Hartenstein back with the team playing the best basketball of his career, I’m picking them as my NBA Cup champions.

Pre-Cup Predictions Check-In

One of the main reasons I created this blog was so I had a platform to call my shots and then get to look back and see how I did. Feeling pretty good about my job here.

Got 5/8 of the teams to advance from my group stage predictions, and my champion is still alive (even if I'm picking against them now).

As far as bets, we cashed Bucks at +165 for their group, and hit a nice longshot with Rockets +460 (4th best odds in the group). Was a classic Stephen Curry nuclear ending away from cashing Mavericks +310 for their group as well.

Warriors to make the finals is still in play and I'll be rooting for it even if I do think Houston is going to win that matchup Wednesday.

Unfortunately both MVP picks are out, liked the value for both of them, not too worried about it not going our way.