Daniel Waddleton
Nov 19, 2024
OVER THE PAST few days, I’ve had five NBA topics bouncing around in my head, so I decided to throw them all together into this piece of organized chaos. Feel free to dive into any—or all—of the five topics, and enjoy the randomness!
How Big Is the Gap Between Jokic and Everybody Else?
Let’s start this piece by playing my favorite game. Ranking the absurdity of Nikola Jokic stats.
The Nuggets offensive rating with Jokic off the floor – 86.3 – worst in basketball. The Nuggets offensive rating with Jokic on the floor – 125.8 – best in NBA history.
The Nuggets have a point differential of a 68 win team when Jokic is on the floor, and a point differential of a one win team when his off the floor.
Before missing the last two games due to personal reasons, Jokic was leading the NBA in total points, total rebounds, and total assists.
Jokic currently holds a PER of 33.6, which if it holds will be the highest ever, breaking his own record of 32.8.
In Jokic’s most recent game against Dallas, he had 37 points 18 rebounds and 15 assists while shooting 61.3% from the floor and 100% from three.
It’s reached a point where Nikola Jokic is levitating above the rest of the league in a way that feels almost boring. Watching the Nuggets the last two games without him, this team is hardly even competitive, yet they were third in the west prior to his absence. Jokic sits at +210 to win his fourth MVP, and it seems like the only thing that could stop him is missing the 65-game threshold due to an injury.
These most recent Nuggets games had me thinking, how in the world is the national media going to come up with some narrative this time to derail his MVP campaign. Perhaps claiming his postseason résumé doesn’t measure up to that of a four-time MVP? Or maybe if the Thunder win 65 games, we’ll hear that an MVP must come from such an exceptional team? Do they dare go back to the vintage “My MVP plays both ways”?
Regardless of the inevitable noise, tune it out. The only Jokic debate worth having is this: how many years has it been since the gap between the best player in the world and everyone else was this wide? Are we talking 2013 LeBron? 2001 Shaq?
. . .
Why Atlanta Deserves Your Attention
Few teams in the NBA have faced as many early-season injuries as the Atlanta Hawks. A league-high 11 players have combined to miss 76 games, yet the Hawks have managed to stay afloat with a respectable 7-8 record. Their opening night starting five—Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, and Clint Capela—has only played 50 total possessions together but boasts a staggering +27.5-point differential per 100 possessions in that time. Granted it’s a small sample, that number would surpass even the Celtics’ starting five. What gives me hope that number will remain high as they all return is the five players have all maintained positive on/off differentials individually, with Jalen Johnson leading the way at +15.6.
Johnson, the fourth year forward and current betting favorite for Most Improved Player, has become an integral part of Atlanta’s offense. Hawks coach Quin Synder has made a considered effort to get the most out of Johnson, as he’s averaging 96.9 touches per game, the second most in the league. Whether it’s creating off the dribble, playing in the short roll, spotting up from the perimeter, or electrifying crowds with ferocious dunks, Johnson’s skill set along with his size and speed allows him to fit seamlessly with any lineup. He and Dyson Daniels represent the cornerstones of Atlanta’s suddenly intriguing young core.
Daniels might be a diamond in the rough get for Atlanta after acquiring him in the trade that sent Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans. Nicknamed the “Wembanyama of Guards” by some for his defensive instincts, Daniels leads the league with 44 steals, 15 more than the next player, and averages an eye-popping 7.2 deflections per game. He looks like he might be the perfect fit next to Trae Young for years to come, especially if he can continue to knock down his catch and shoot threes at a respectable rate.
Beyond Johnson and Daniels, De’Andre Hunter is averaging a career high and has been scorching from beyond the arc, Zacharie Risacher looks like he might’ve been the right pick at first overall, and the center tandem of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu is providing consistently strong center minutes. The biggest issue outside of injuries has been Trae Young’s shooting struggles, but his other worldly playmaking ensures he remains a headache for opposing defenses. If his shooting percentages improve, the Hawks’ offense could explode.
I like what I see from Atlanta, and I think they are top six seed material in the Eastern Conference. As they start to get healthier, I want to call my shot now that the Hawks will be among the East's best for the rest of the season.
. . .
Philadelphia, We Have a Problem
The 76ers have fallen to an abysmal 2-11 on the season, placing them dead last in the Eastern Conference. While the East is a mess and, as of today, the Sixers are just three games out of the play-in tournament despite being nine games under .500, the vibes in Philadelphia couldn’t be worse.
Following last night’s loss against the Heat—a game in which they once led by nearly 20 points—the team held a meeting to try and sort things out. Team leader Tyrese Maxey reportedly called out former MVP Joel Embiid during the meeting, accusing him of being “late to everything,” according to ESPN.
Whether related or not, since Embiid’s return from injury the Sixers have lost every game he’s appeared in, and his performances have been underwhelming. His usage rate is at a career low and he’s looked lethargic on both ends of the floor. It’s clear someone needs to light a fire under the big man, and I guess who better to try than Maxey, one of Embiid’s closest friends by his own account. He's legitimately averaging just 14 points a game right now.
Paul George has also not quite lived up to the 220 million dollar man the 76ers expected when they signed him to a four-year max contract in July. I mentioned on Twitter that there were some red flags suggesting George might be on the decline during the Clippers-Mavericks playoff series back in April. However, I held back from blowing those concerns out of proportion in my preseason previews, given that George was joining a team that would require far less from him as a self-creator than Los Angeles did during that playoff series. So far though, Philly has needed more then he's been able to provide.
I’m not suggesting it’s time to hit the panic button just yet. As mentioned, the East is weak, and the Sixers "big three" of Maxey, Embiid, and George have yet to play together. Maxey’s return will almost certainly provide a spark, and rookie Jared McCain looks like he's already prepared to be a real guy this season. However, this season will be lost if Embiid doesn't step up his game and keep this team afloat while waiting for this thing to come together.
. . .
Eyes on Portland: The Blazers’ NBA Cup Potential
Am I the only one who thinks I'd be super fun if the Trail Blazers crashed the NBA Cup Knockout Stage?
To be clear, I am not predicting that Portland will advance past their group into the knockout round. However, they currently stand at 1-0 after beating the Minnesota Timberwolves, the preseason betting favorite to win the group. This victory makes it at least a realistic possibility that they could advance, and I think they would be a fantastic monkey wrench in this tournament.
The Blazers have a bunch of talented players who likely fly under the radar for most NBA fans, given the team’s irrelevance since Damian Lillard’s trade. Shaedon Sharpe, for instance, is a silky smooth 99th-percentile athlete with a knack for making incredibly difficult shots look easy. Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija are the type of wings who would be the perfect fifth starter on a championship contender.
On the other hand, players like Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Robert Williams III have probably outstayed their time in Portland and are likely due for trades to help contending teams soon. All three are top-75ish players when healthy, and this stage could be an excellent opportunity to boost their trade value if they play at a high level.
Then there is the team’s pair of promising 20-year-olds, Scoot Henderson and Donovan Clingan, who have both shown flashes of success early in the 2024-25 season. Clingan in particular, has been outstanding as a rim protector. Teams are shooting 4.3% worse at the rim with him on the court, an on/off that's placing him in the 76th percentile among big men in the league. He already looks the part of a future elite drop-coverage center who could anchor a defense for years to come.
Maybe it’s just the NBA nerd in me, but knowing this team is unlikely to make much noise beyond trade deadline moves once we turn the calendar to 2025, I’d love to see this intriguing collection of players get some run in big games on national television. If nothing else, it would be entertaining to watch this squad compete on a larger stage!
. . .
The Bucks Quietly Solid Defense
The Bucks are currently 5-9, and instead of focusing on Milwaukee’s title chances, the conversation has shifted to speculation about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team. While it’s fair to say the Bucks don’t look like contenders right now, there is one encouraging trend: their defense is quietly improved from last season.
After the Damian Lillard trade last season, Milwaukee’s defense plummeted. The Bucks went from being one of the league’s best defensive teams year in and year out to one of the worst. Much of this can be attributed to replacing Jrue Holiday, maybe the leagues ultimate swiss army knife defender, with Lillard, a below-average defender.
Other factors included downgrades on the wings, swapping solid defenders like Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews for players like Malik Beasley, and the diminished effectiveness of Brook Lopez’s drop coverage system without elite perimeter screen navigators. Even something as simple as Giannis getting a little older and giving just 10% less effort defensively hurt last season when considering all the other issues you’d hope he would be able to cover up.
This season, defensive improvements were expected with the additions of Gary Trent Jr., Delon Wright, and Taurean Prince, but the eye test early on suggested otherwise. Milwaukee was toasted by the Bulls and Nets in two of the first three games. People were very quick to say it's the same old Bucks defense from last season.
Then things began to look better when Doc Rivers turned to younger players like Andre Jackson Jr. and AJ Green, who brought a spark on defense. Then following a loss to the Knicks dropping the Bucks to 2-7, Giannis publicly called out himself and his team for a lack of effort.
The results from Giannis individually and the team as a whole have been better since. While the Bucks are just 3-2 since that Knicks game, they rank sixth in defensive rating during that stretch. For the season, when accounting for strength of schedule and shooting luck, Milwaukee ranks second in adjusted defensive rating. Even early on, the defense wasn’t as bad as it appeared, and now it’s showing legitimate signs of improvement. Their rim protection remains elite, ranking third in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, and with the young players providing resistance at the point of attack, the overall defense is stabilizing.
There’s also a glaring issue that could potentially get fixed soon. Bobby Portis has a -16.5 on-off point differential this season while playing 25 minutes per game, and the team is 8 points worse defensively per 100 possessions when he’s on the court. The defense could improve further if the Bucks found a better backup big via trade. An ideal scenario could be acquiring Robert Williams III from Portland—a player many teams might view as a sunk cost due to his injury history but one who could be a game-changer for Milwaukee should he stay healthy.
If anything, the real issue in Milwaukee’s slow start has surprisingly been their offense. Using the same adjusted rating metric, the Bucks rank in the bottom third of the league in adjusted offensive rating. Khris Middleton, often the offensive connector last season, has been sorely missed.
It’s easier for teams to load up on Dame and Giannis actions when they don’t have a player like Middleton who can punish that strategy and initiate second side actions. He also can play the role of point guard in non-Lillard minutes, as the Bucks have lacked offensive organization without him on the court. I’m sure Milwaukee is hoping that Middleton can regain his form upon his return and will be the solution to a lot of their offensive woes.
While Milwaukee still has a ways to go before they could be considered a threat in the East, their defense provides a glimmer of hope in an otherwise turbulent start.
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