Daniel Waddleton
Jan 24th, 2023
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With the All-Star starters being released tomorrow night I figured I would throw together a quick post with my All-Star picks.
I was not picking the teams based on who I think is going to be selected, rather who I would select if Adam Silver came in and gave me the honor of selecting these 24 players.
I try to base my picks of a 25% scale. 25% base stats, 25% advanced stats, 25% team success, 25% eye test. It's not a perfect representation of how I picked my teams but it's at least what I try to stick too when I get to the end and am trying to decide between multiple guys.
Unfortunately, Trey Murphy III and Jaime Jaquez Jr didn't make my 24 this year, but I'm hoping we can get them in there soon!
Starters
G. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
The league leader in assists and the engine of the number 1 rated offense in the NBA feels like a good place to start when talking about who should be opening the running point in the all-star game. Tyrese Haliburton, after showing flashes last season that were derailed by injury as a lead guard, has taken the NBA by storm this season. While averaging 23 points and 12.6 assists is already super impressive, Haliburton is 5th in EPM and only trails one guard in the category (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). He’s been the biggest reason for the Pacers' offensive success this season and has kept the Pacers right in the thick of the playoff race in the Eastern Conference for the first time since the NBA bubble.
G. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
I’m old enough to remember when Jalen Brunson and his $26 million a year contract was considered an "overpay" for the New York Knicks. Well, after an all-star snub last season, it’s time Brunson not only made his first all-star game but started in it. Brunson has been one of the most efficient guard scorers in the NBA this season and is the only guard other than Steph Curry who is shooting 40% from the field and 3, while averaging 26 or more points a game. Brunson’s fancy footwork and shifty dribble moves have made him nearly impossible to cover for anybody this season. Maybe more importantly, Brunson has made the Knicks a relevant team for the first time in what has felt like an eternity. The Knicks got their guy, and it was a bargain deal.
F. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
The best player on the best team in the NBA should be enough to start in the all-star game regardless, but Jayson Tatum also averages 27 points a game and has played at an all-star level of defense for the Celtics this season. Tatum also averages a near career-high of 8.4 rebounds a game, allowing the Celtics to play smaller lineups with more versatility on the floor. Come playoff time, Tatum is going to have to climb the ladder into the NBA’s most elite players to win it all this season, but for now, there’s no question Jayson Tatum shouldn’t be an all-star starter.
F. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
While being the leading all-star vote-getter in the NBA, Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t need the help of fans to capture his 8th straight all-star game start. Giannis is averaging a whopping 31 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 6.2 assists a game and is 4th in PER, EPM, and Win Shares. While his usage has dropped 5% from last season, his stats are nearly identical due to maybe his most efficient season ever. Some of that has to do with the newfound floor spacing Damian Lillard has created on offense, but either way, Giannis has been a force to be reckoned with in the NBA once again.
F. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
The current front-runner for MVP might not even be the most impressive thing you could say about Joel Embiid right now. I’d maybe point to the 36 points game he’s currently averaging. If that wasn’t ridiculous enough, Embiid is also averaging a career-high 5.8 assists per game. Never being the best passer out of the post, Embiid has become a master of the midrange this season, making a league-high 3.4 mid-range jumpers per game on 50% shooting from there. His vintage elbow catch has allowed him to more easily anticipate doubles and has made passes out of those doubles less challenging. It’s been the most comfortable and most complete Embiid has ever looked in his career, and it appears to be his best opportunity ever to make his first deep playoff run.
Reserves
G. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
In his first season away from Portland, his efficiency has taken a dip compared to his other prime seasons, as the Bucks have not run nearly as many pick and rolls with Lillard as he is typically accustomed to. Either way, Lillard is still having an All-Star season, averaging 25 points and 6.8 assists per game on the second-best team in the Eastern Conference. He’s still been an offensive engine for the Bucks, being 10th in offensive win shares this season. And he’s still been the league's clutch king, currently second in clutch points, second in clutch 3’s, 6th in clutch assists, 1st in clutch plus-minus, and 1st in clutch wins and winning percentage. The Bucks' regression on defense this season has been largely pinned on Lillard since All-Defensive guard Jrue Holiday was sent out of Milwaukee during the blockbuster trade in September. However, the reality is scheme and a lack of buy-in have been the main reasons for the defensive slip. Bucks fans can only hope Doc Rivers has the answers.
G. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Once the leader of the hypothetical trade world when Darius Garland and Evan Mobley were ruled out for extended time, Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers are 14-4 since the injuries. Although I gave the edge to Brunson, Mitchell had quite the all-star starter case, averaging over 27 points a game while being the clear best player on a 4th seed Cavs team ravaged by injuries. Both Mitchell and the Cavaliers will only be judged this season based on their postseason success after last year's beatdown at the hands of the Knicks, but for now, it’s been an impressive season for Spida.
F. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Although the Raptors have had an extremely disappointing season, there is no real argument to keep Scottie Barnes off the team in my mind. After a concerning second year, the untouchable piece in a Kevin Durant trade has taken a massive 3rd year leap in Toronto. His stats are up in every major statistical category to the tune of 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists a game, and shooting 48/36/75 shooting splits. His defense has also improved this season as the Raptors have leaned into his strengths of guarding bigger wings with his size and length, instead of matching him up with just the best player on the other team every night where he struggled at times to guard smaller guards. Scottie Barnes gets a no-sweat all-star nod in my book.
F. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
At least one player should always be representing the Miami Heat in the All-Star game considering they are in the Eastern Conference Finals basically every season. With Jimmy Butler's lack of games played, I’ll go with the league's ultimate Swiss army knife, Bam Adebayo. A guy who isn’t talked about nearly enough by NBA media, Bam is having maybe his best offensive regular season, averaging a career-high in points and being the main playmaker on many nights with both Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler missing extended time this season. Obviously, where Bam excels is on defense where I’d argue come playoff time nobody is more impactful on that end besides MAYBE Draymond Green or Anthony Davis. All things considered, Bam deserves a spot on the all-star team.
F. Kristaps Porzingis, Boston Celtics
If you have the best record in the NBA, you should have at least two all-stars. The challenge with the Celtics is they have the best starting lineup in basketball and arguably 3 guys who all equally deserve to be the second all-star on the team. Many would probably end up going Jaylen Brown as he’s the second offensive option, and some may go with Derrick White based on the recent discourse around him. Personally, I’m going to go with the guy that I think makes the Celtics the best team in the league (even over Jayson Tatum). Porzingis makes the Celtics' offense basically unstoppable with his elite ability to pick and pop if you trap a pick and roll due to his quickness and shooting ability at 7’3, and able to bully mismatches if you switch. He also hasn’t allowed the Celtics to slip defensively after the departure of Rob Williams as Porzingis is still a premier shot-blocker in this league. I think Porzingis is THE most important Celtic and deserves an all-star nod. PS. Porzingis is 9th in the league in true shooting percentage at 66%, the HIGHEST of any eastern all-star listed in this piece.
WC. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
My first wildcard was a no-brainer, as Tyrese Maxey has excelled in a bigger role for the 3rd seeded 76ers. Maxey’s usage has jumped from 23% last year to 27% this year and with that jump, he has improved his scoring to 26 points a game from 20 last year, and 6.6 assists per game from 3.5 last year. While his efficiency has taken a little bit of a dip, his willingness and ability to move effectively off the ball unlike James Harden last year has made life easier for Joel Embiid and has made the offense harder to gameplan for and defend. The question of can Maxey be a 2 in the playoffs remains the same way can Embiid being a 1 in the postseason remains, but it’s a regular season game and Maxey is more than deserving of being a part of it.
WC. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
For my last wild card spot, I was between a couple of guys including Paolo Banchero, Jarrett Allen, and Julius Randle but ended up going with Trae Young. Despite being the leader on the most disappointing team in the league, Trae Young has put up numbers very few can contend with. Young is 10th in points per game and 2nd in assists per game with 27 and 11 averages, and while the advanced stats don’t love Young the way they love some of these guys this season, sometimes the raw numbers are enough. Eye test-wise, Young has also jumped off the screen in every Hawks game I’ve watched regardless of the score, and it at least looks like he’s putting up as much of a fight on defense as his smaller frame allows him to. Need a tiebreaker? Young is the exact kind of player that makes the all-star game fun! It’s like at the end of a dinner where you can pick Derrick White and get the fresh fruit for dessert, or you can live a little and pick Trae Young and get the lava cake with vanilla ice cream.
Starters
G. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Something tells me Luka is going to be starting in the all-star game every healthy season for the next decade. Not that I’m complaining because he’s super fun to watch, and for once I’m sure he wouldn’t be complaining either! All jokes aside Luka is having yet another supernova season for the Mavericks and is the sole reason nobody would welcome a playoff series against what would likely be an inferior Mavs team. Luka is averaging a pretty ridiculous 34 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 9.4 assists a game on 48/37/77 shooting splits. He’s also 4th in VORP, 5th in PER, and 6th in EPM. There should be a betting line “Luka to argue with a ref” in the all-star game. I think +130 on the YES line would be fair.
G. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder is tied for the best record in the West, and while Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams both have their share of responsibility for that, nobody deserves more credit than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder's superb first-half start. Shai is 3rd in the league in points at 31 a game while posting a hyper-efficient 55/34/89 shooting split. He’s also 1st in the league in steals at over 2 a game as he’s been a plus on both ends for the Thunder this season. The most impressive stat for Gilgeous-Alexander is that he’s second in both EPM and VORP which are two of my personal favorite advanced numbers to look at when trying to see who the most valuable players have been in a season. I’m sure not even in Sam Presti’s wildest dreams did he think he would be grabbing a future MVP caliber player in the Paul George trade 5 years ago, yet here we are.
F. Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
When he isn’t feuding with the common people like myself on Twitter, Kevin Durant is laying waste to the NBA on offense. Durant is averaging 29 points a game on really impressive 53/45/87 shooting splits. Durant has been the most durable and accountable of the Suns' big 3 and was able to keep the ship (barely) afloat in the other two’s absence, and since they have all returned, the Suns have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Now 6th in the West and currently out of the play-in, the Suns are praying their big 3 can stay healthy as they try to avoid any 1-game playoffs in their future. If it did have to come to that though, having Kevin Durant on your team probably makes you feel alright about your chances. I considered Kawhi heavily for this spot, but after splitting hairs, I did give the edge to Durant. Bonus – Kevin Durant is 35 years old, the same age LeBron won ring number 4. After that championship we gave LeBron another 1-2 years before the decline kicked in. It's been way past that time frame, and we haven’t seen any major decline. Durant appears to be next up to challenge father time and I’m very intrigued to see if he can stay on the same steady consistency of excellent like LeBron did through his 35–39-year-old seasons. Basically, my question is, is 36-39 about to be the new 33-36 for NBA superstars? Durant is the next subject to this study.
F. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are currently .500, and because of that, some may suggest they shouldn’t have somebody starting in the all-star game. If that’s your opinion, I wouldn’t argue with you; however, I am not one to live or die by any one rule. While being an overshadowed big man the last two seasons because of Jokic and Embiid’s greatness, Anthony Davis has quietly been one of the best two-way players in the entire NBA. With all due respect to Rudy Gobert and the awesome season he’s had, from what I’ve watched this season Anthony Davis would be my defensive player of the year. I understand the Timberwolves as a team blow out the Lakers as a team in defensive metrics, but Davis has done nearly just as much, with much less support. Davis is second in defensive win shares only trailing Gobert (3.4 vs 2.8). Davis’s defensive versatility and overall durability this season has made him one of the most valuable players I’ve watched this season and deserving of an All-Star nod. Sorry, he also averages 25 points and 12 rebounds a game on 55% shooting. Almost forgot to mention that.
F. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
You’ve seen me mention different advanced stats throughout this piece, and I now present to you the advanced stat king. Forget the 26 point 12 rebound 9 assist averages, or the 59% shooting percentage; let’s talk about a stat created by Andy Bailey on Twitter called “HNI” which stands for “Huge Nerd Index”. This stat averages a player's ranks in 8 best catch-all advanced stats with at least 300+ minutes played. Jokic is first with a 1.8 average, meaning his average spot in these 8 advanced metrics is 1.8. Jokic also officially met the game requirement this season to be eligible for all-time PER, which he now ranks first in, ahead of 2. Michael Jordan and 3. LeBron James. I think Jokic is currently the best player in basketball with all things considered. He is an unguardable cover 1 on 1 in the post, the way he can manipulate the defense with his passing his second to none, he’s arguably the best rebounder in basketball, and his defense is honestly underrated. No, he’s not the premier shot-blocker some of these other bigs are, but he’s a super smart defender and proved in the playoffs last year he can hold up fine when teams put him into the pick and roll action. Jokic currently sits at the iron throne of the league, and something tells me that big body isn’t getting up anytime soon.
Reserves
G. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
For the first time in 7 years, I have Stephen Curry representing the Warriors in the all-star game from the bench. It’s not to say that Curry hasn’t had an all-star starter type of season, but the two guys ahead of him are having MVP caliber years and Curry has just been a tick below that this season. His Warriors have also really struggled this season and are currently out of the playoff and play-in race altogether. For that, I couldn’t justify giving the league's most electrifying player a starter non, but he was a no-brainer reserve averaging 27 points 4 rebounds and 5 assists while still knocking down 3’s at a 40 percent clip.
G. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
After watching all of Devin Bookers first two games this season vs the Warriors and Spurs, I was almost convinced he was the best point guard in basketball. While he has come down to earth since those games that was my wild introduction to “Point-Book” and to say I was impressed was an understatement. Booker has taken on the challenge of being the de facto point guard of this Phoenix Suns team after the Chris Paul trade this summer, and he’s been about as dynamic a lead guard as the Suns could’ve hoped for. Per cleaning the glass, Devin Booker has an assist percentage of 31.8% this year which is by far the highest of his career, and the Suns as a team have a +12.7-efficiency differential when Booker is on the floor. That’s good for 97th percentile of combo guards in the league. Booker has taken on the challenge of not just being a scorer but also the organizer of this offense and since the big 3 has all been healthy the team has been firing on all cylinders because of it. Sorry, you just want some simple stats? Booker is averaging 28 a game and 7 assists a game while shooting 50% from the field, all 3 stats career highs. To put it politely, Devin Booker is a freakin all-star.
F. Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
The man I call the league's assassin because he’s nobody’s favorite player but come playoff team he beats everybody’s favorite players, Kawhi Leonard is fittingly having a quiet awesome season for the Clippers. While people seem to be aware that the Clippers are starting to click as Brooklyn Nets James Harden has returned, I don’t think people are quite as aware how good that team actually is, and how good Kawhi Leonard in particular has been for them. The Clippers are 22-4 since December 1st, and are second in net rating only behind Boston. The most impressive part of the team is their shot making as they have the best EFG% during this stretch and that starts with Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is shooting 55% on two’s and 44% on 3’s this season and has been able to do it on or off the ball. He’s shooting 44 percent on off dribble pull-ups, while also knocking down 48% of his catch and shoot 3’s. While maybe not being 2019 Kawhi on defense, he’s still been one of the league's best on that side of the ball. Don’t believe me? Go watch his game vs the OKC Thunder and tell me how many guys you’ve seen be able to defend Shai like that at the end of a game. It doesn’t at all shock me Leonard is 7th in EPM this season even after a slow first couple of weeks.
F. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
I have no doubt in my mind LeBron James is going to be an all-star starter, as he has something like a 20-year streak going right now and he’s the greatest basketball player ever so he’s going to start in the all-star game. For the sake of my exercise, I just did who I felt was most deserving all around and in that case, I had to put LeBron in as a reserve instead of a starter. However, don’t let that mix of compliments and disservices distract you from the fact that at age 39 LeBron James still averages 25 points a game with 7 rebounds and 7 assists. If I didn’t look at his base stats and just guessed what he averages based on the games I’ve watched this season, I’d honestly probably guess even higher numbers because of how good he looks when he’s been out there. It’s the most insane sports phenomenon I’ve ever seen, and I truly don’t know how he’s doing it, but I will not doubt LeBron James as an all-star ever again.
F. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
He’s not a perfect player by any means, but the Timberwolves are tied for first in the West, and because of that, they unquestionably deserve at least one all-star. Considering the Wolves have been first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for basically the entire season, I feel like a good place to start for Wolves all-stars is the man anchoring it all. Rudy Gobert has had a resurgence this season after an up-and-down start in Minnesota last year. I mentioned in my piece about the teams I didn’t think could win the finals that Rudy Gobert was a little underrated last season, and I could see him flashing back onto the scene, but even I didn’t see this coming. Opposing teams' points per 100 possessions decrease by 5.5 points when Gobert is on the floor, and Gobert is first in D-LEBRON, a stat that the leader in has matched the DPOY in 4 of the last 6 seasons. Gobert has also looked more comfortable offensively now playing with old Utah pick-and-roll mate Mike Conley. Gobert isn’t the most fun guy to have in the all-star game, but it’s hard to suggest he doesn’t deserve a spot.
WC. Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
For one of my wild cards, I knew I wanted to nominate a Sacramento King. The exercise became whether I was going to give that nod to guard De’Aaron Fox or forward Domantas Sabonis. From the games I’ve watched this season, I’d slightly lean towards Fox, but after tapping into my nerd side and diving into some numbers, I actually ended up going with Sabonis. His base stats of 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists a game speak for themselves, but looking deeper than that, Sabonis dominates Fox in the advanced numbers while having the ball significantly less. Fox has a usage rate 9 points higher than Sabonis, yet the numbers would suggest Sabonis is still the more impactful King. In a very slight lean, I went with Sabonis. Shoutout to Fox’s underrated defense and crazy improved 3-point shooting, though!
WC. Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
So, I was torn between a whopping 5 guys for this spot: Anthony Edwards, Paul George, De’Aaron Fox, Chet Holmgren, or my ultimate selection, Lauri Markkanen. Please allow me to bring back in Andy Bailey and the “Huge Nerd Index”. Lauri Markkanen’s rank will probably shock most as it was 15th in the entire league! That’s ahead of all of the other guys I mentioned, and if we combine that with the fact that the Jazz are one of the most overachieving teams in the league and he’s the best player on that team, I think Lauri has a very strong case. Let me propose something else Jazz-related. Let’s just let Will Hardy coach the all-star game, because after watching some Jazz games this season and what he’s doing with that personnel is like god’s work. He might currently rank 2nd on my NBA coach rankings, right behind Spo and right in front of Udoka. Some real impressive stuff, man. The Jazz are going to be competing for championships before this decade expires, in my opinion.
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