Merry Christmas!

Daniel Waddleton

Dec 25, 2024

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MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL MY READERS! This truly is one of the most wonderful times of the year, even for those who don’t live and breathe sports. It’s a season filled with family, friends, gift exchanges, delicious food, and that warm, festive vibe that makes everything feel a little more special.

And then of course for sports fans like us, Christmas is a double gift. It comes wrapped in NFL playoff races, college football bowl season, and the excitement of college basketball gearing up for conference play.

Above all though, Christmas Day is synonymous with one of my favorite traditions -- the NBA’s showcase of marquee matchups. Few things get me more excited than a full day of basketball featuring the leagues brightest stars and best teams. Sure, I may have to retreat to a different room at my grandma’s house because the NFL wouldn't keep its dirty paws off the NBA's holiday, but you won’t catch me choosing Steelers-Chiefs or Texans-Ravens over an awesome slate of NBA showdowns.

For me, Christmas also marks one of the three major "checkpoints" in the NBA season -- the other two being the trade deadline and the start of the playoffs. Breaking the season into these milestones helps me step back, reassess, and reflect on what’s unfolded so far while setting the stage for what’s to come.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into Checkpoint 1/3 of the season! I’ll preview the Christmas Day slate, share my current award winners, and highlight what to watch for as we head into the new year. Let’s get started!

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Christmas Games Preview & Predictions

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

The Spurs have more than held their own in a stacked Western Conference through the first third of the season, making their inclusion on the Christmas schedule feel justified.

Watching Victor Wembanyama make his Christmas debut at Madison Square Garden is reason enough to tune in, but this matchup has the potential to be a genuinely fun game.

At full health, the Spurs have a dynamic young roster led by the steady hand of Chris Paul.

Add Wemby’s ability to heavily impact the game on both ends, and San Antonio always has a chance to surprise. Meanwhile, the Knicks are hitting their stride, with their previously struggling defense climbing to sixth in the NBA during December. Mikal Bridges has also been pivotal to this resurgence, averaging 22 points on 46.9% shooting from three this month after a slow start to the season.

This Knicks team is finally resembling the squad many envisioned after their trades for Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns -- versatile two-way wings orbiting the Brunson-Towns two man game in a well-balanced attack. It’s coming together for New York, and they’re looking like a legitimate finals threat.

For this game, expect the Knicks to try to neutralize Wembanyama’s defensive paint presence by involving Towns in pick-and-pop actions or using him as a facilitator at the top of the key. Even if the Spurs get creative in getting Wemby to deter rim attempts despite KAT’s elite shooting (opponents shoot the third farthest shots from the rim when he’s in the game), the Knicks have plenty of capable mid-range scorers to lean on. That combination makes me favor New York in this one.

That said, Spurs +8.5 could be a fun flyer if you’re rooting for Wemby to shine in the early part of the Christmas slate.

Prediction: Knicks

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks

This rematch of the 2024 Western Conference Finals feels like it’s taking place in a different world -- at least for one of the teams involved. The Timberwolves, now without Karl-Anthony Towns, replaced him with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, a move that seemed more financially motivated than basketball-driven at the time. The result? Anthony Edwards downhill drives have decreased while his three-point attempts have gone up, likely due to the lack of spacing created by Minnesota’s new-look starting frontcourt of Jaden McDaniels, Randle, and Rudy Gobert.

With less then ideal court mapping for perhaps the leagues best downhill driver at the guard position, the Timberwolves have struggled to find their rhythm. Sitting at 14-14, the teams chemistry feels as much of a challenge as its on-court play, and it feels likely a trade is on the horizon. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have stabilized after a rough start and now look like one of the top two teams in the West alongside Oklahoma City. This Christmas matchup offers them a chance to show they’re still a step ahead of the Minnesota team they eliminated in last year’s playoffs.

Expect Dallas to go back to what worked in that series: Luka Doncic attacking Rudy Gobert’s drop defense in the pick-and-roll. The Mavericks excelled when Luka was able to get two feet into the paint off high ball screens, capitalizing on floaters, lobs, and surgical offense with the ball flying around from that middle area. We will see what adjustments the Wolves have it store, that maybe could include moving Randle to defend Dallas centers and hoping they could play more of a blitz heavy scheme with Gobert behind the play.

On the other end, Dallas will likely focus on forcing the ball out of Edwards hands. Without the connective playmaking of Towns or Kyle Anderson from last season, Minnesota may struggle to create efficient looks when Ant gets trapped. And unfortunately Mike Conley seems to be showing his age, adding to the Timberwolves challenges of playmaking. I'll take Dallas easy.

Prediction: Mavericks

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

This is easily the game I’m most excited for on the Christmas slate. The sixers are finally getting healthy after enduring one of the most disastrous starts I can remember for a preseason contender. With their "big three" of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and Joel Embiid back on the court together, this matchup offers a golden opportunity for them to show what they’re capable of against the leagues title favorites, while your likely enjoying Christmas dinner.

The Celtics, though slightly banged up, remain a formidable opponent. Even if one or two of their stars miss this game, a sixers win at TD Garden would send a strong message to the rest of the league: if this roster stays healthy, they’re still to be taken serious despite the record.

Paul George has shown some red flags of decline this season, similar to what we saw in the Mavericks series last year, but he’s still a good player. Meanwhile, the role-playing wings Philadelphia has -- Kelly Oubre, Cody Martin, and Guerschon Yabusele -- have been giving the Sixers solid contributions in the absence of their stars. These players now filing into a more supporting role around Maxey and Embiid could be a nice recipe for success.

I expect Boston to test Embiid’s mobility early in pick-and-roll situations and look to exploit Kristaps Porzingis ability to stretch the floor with popping threes. It’s also always fascinating to see how the Celtics super versatile defense decides to matchup against teams with multiple high level offensive players. Will we see Jrue Holiday start possessions on Embiid, something Boston has liked to do in the past? Doe Jaylen Brown get the initial Maxey assignment?

The Sixers size should help them avoid being bullied by Boston’s physicality like some teams do, and if Embiid looks like himself, the Sixers might have the personnel to challenge the Celtics. That said, I’m leaning toward Boston in this one. They’ve obviously been more consistent all season, and I trust them more. But a statement win by Philadelphia wouldn’t shock me.

Prediction: Celtics

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

The only way to justify two preseason projected play-in teams getting the primetime Christmas Day slot is if the leagues two most popular players are facing off. And once again, we’re treated to the pleasure of LeBron James vs. Stephen Curry -- a rivalry built on playoff battles, finals matchups, and memorable Christmas Day games. While neither team advanced past the first round last season, they always play thrilling games, including a double-overtime classic just around this time last season.

So far, both teams face significant hurdles to being true championship contenders in their current state, but they’re perfectly matched to deliver an entertaining game. For the Lakers, improving their point-of-attack defense will be crucial. Despite Anthony Davis elite defensive prowess, even he hasn’t been able to anchor a defense that’s struggled mightily this season.

The Warriors offense has been uncharacteristically pedestrian this season in the Curry era, and their clutch time offense absolutely falls off a cliff, ranking 27th in the league. With Curry showing signs of aging and not maintaining his usual efficiency, Golden State desperately needs shot creation elsewhere, and so far, no one has consistently stepped up. Newly acquired Dennis Schroder is always good to carry a creation load, but his fit within Golden State’s movement-heavy system remains a question mark. The Warriors will need a scoring punch from either Andrew Wiggins or Jonathan Kuminga against subpar defense on the wings for Los Angeles in this one.

This game feels like a battle of strengths and weaknesses clashing against each other. The Lakers size has given the Warriors trouble in recent matchups, with players like Rui Hachimura thriving against Golden State’s smaller lineups. Anthony Davis also remains a nightmare for the Warriors, thanks to his versatility when pulled away from the basket while still providing elite rim protection.

Ultimately, I think the Lakers have an advantage in these areas, and LeBron will rise to the occasion on the national stage as he always does.

Prediction: Lakers

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets may not be a finished product yet -- there’s a strong chance they’ll make a trade before the deadline -- but this game offers Nikola Jokic the perfect opportunity to remind everyone what any team of his is capable of when he’s on the court on Christmas. The Suns remain a formidable opponent despite the recent slide in the standings, they are still loaded with talent.

The concern for this iteration of Phoenix always lies in their redundancy. They deploy a lot of players on the court at once that provide elite at shot creation or mid-range jump shooting but lack key ingredients for a balanced team in their main lineups, like versatile two-way wings or reliable rim protection. Even so, when healthy, they’re a tough matchup for anyone in the West, and this Christmas nightcap should be a fun one.

For Denver, the key will be attacking Jusuf Nurkic early and often through Jokic. If the Nuggets can get Nurkic into foul trouble, the Suns will be forced to send even more aggressive doubles at Jokic then they’d like to prevent him from going for 50. That’s exactly where Denver excels -- forcing teams to scramble defensively, leaving them exposed to the Jokers top of the line playmaking and the high-quality looks he generates for his teammates.

On the Phoenix side, Devin Booker’s absence due to a groin injury is a significant blow. Booker has historically played exceptionally well against Denver, and his scoring will be sorely missed in this matchup. However, his absence will likely force the team to lean more on players like Ryan Dunn and Royce O’Neale in key lineups might help shore up their deficiencies in other areas.

All this said, this isn’t a playoff series; it’s just one game. The Nuggets crushed the Suns by 27 on Monday, and in typical NBA fashion, teams often split these back-to-back matchups. I’m leaning toward Phoenix in this one, they’ve got the talent to bounce back and be the victor the nightcap.

Prediction: Suns

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Checkpoint Award Winners

Most Valuable Player - Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

I get it, he’s already won the award three times in the last four years. I know Giannis Antetokounmpo is phenomenal, and I know Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the best team in the league. But if we’re being honest about the “Most Valuable Player,” the answer is clear: Nikola Jokic deserves to win it again.

Jokic’s value to the Denver Nuggets is staggering. He boasts a league-best +27.6 on/off rating, underscoring just how transformative he is when he’s on the floor. With Jokic running the offense, the Nuggets put up a 126.6 offensive rating, which would top the league by five full points. When he sits? That number plummets to 98, dead last in the NBA. That’s the very definition of value.

On top of that, his just pure production is absurd. Jokic is averaging 31 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game on elite efficiency. He’s also leading in virtually every advanced statistic you can find, whether it’s EPM, Win Shares, LEBRON, or VORP. Simply put, he’s dominating the game in ways only he can.

And let’s not let the record sway us. When I ranked the top 100 players this season, not one of Jokic's teammates cracked the top 50. If he can keep this Nuggets team comfortably above the play-in line, that’s plenty of team success given the circumstances he's in to justify giving him a fourth MVP.

Rookie of the Year - Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs

I wrote extensively about Castle in my second “Starting Five” piece this season, which I’d highly encourage you to check out. Since then, he’s only continued to impress. At the time, Jared McCain was the lone bright spot keeping the 76ers from claiming the league’s worst record, and he was the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. But with McCain’s injury, Castle now seems poised to take over as the favorite for the award.

Castle has been a standout rookie for the Spurs, and his increased minutes have coincided with a noticeable uptick in the team’s success. He’s a steady presence at guard, capable of impacting the game both on and off the ball offensively, while being a plus defender. What sets him apart is his elite feel for the game, something you don't always see in rookies. This feel translates to solid passing and exceptional off-ball defense, where his instincts and positioning already rank at an elite level.

The Spurs success, with Castle playing a central role, only strengthens his Rookie of the Year case. The more the team succeeds while he plays well, the better his chances of taking home the award.

Defensive Player of the Year - Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

While the Spurs aren’t exactly a defensive powerhouse -- ranking in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating -- Wemby is the key reason they’ve managed to stay respectable on that end. With Wemby on the floor, the Spurs defense improves by 9.4 points per 100 possessions, a massive swing that highlights his value. When he’s off the court, the defense essentially collapses.

The other main contender for this award, Jaren Jackson Jr., also has a strong case. Now that he’s reduced his fouling issues, he’s been able to stay on the floor more consistently, and the Grizzlies defense has benefited tremendously, ranking fourth in the league. He too has strong on/off defensive indicators, and the team actually has a better defensive rating when he’s on the floor compared to Wemby.

When it comes to breaking the tie between these two, I rely on the eye test, and it’s hard to watch both players and not feel like Wemby has been more impactful this season. His rim deterrence is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. The defensive plays he makes on a nightly basis are jaw-dropping, showcasing his generational talent on that end of the floor.

I'll leave you with this: opponents shoot 4.5% worse at the rim and 8% worse in the short midrange when Wemby is on the court, placing him in the 85th percentile or above in those two tat among big men. Teams shoot the third farthest from the rim when he’s on the court, and teams shoot the closest to the rim of any team when he’s off the court. Oh, and he casually averages 4 blocks per game, over a block more than the next closest player. That kind of dominance is rare, and it’s why for me, Wemby has the edge in this race for now.

Sixth Man of the Year - De'Andre Hunter

Peyton Pritchard might be the current favorite for Sixth Man of the Year, but my pick is Hunter for now.

Now don’t get me wrong, Pritchard has been fantastic in his role as a spark plug off the bench, thriving as a heat-check scorer. However, a big reason he’s able to excel in that role is the loaded roster around him. When Pritchard enters the game, he’s surrounded by versatile teammates who can handle a variety of responsibilities. This allows him to focus entirely on being that microwave shooter, which he’s done as well as anyone this season.

Hunter on the other hand, takes on far more responsibility as a sixth man while also bringing scoring punch off the bench. He’s averaging an impressive 20 points per game on a stellar 64.8% true shooting, but that’s only part of the story. With his size he's also able to guard some of the tougher assignments in the league on the wing, providing value on both ends.

The metrics back this up. The Hawks are 4.9 points per 100 possessions better with Hunter on the court, even with playing in bench-heavy lineups. Pritchard, by comparison, wouldn't suggest to have the same impact for Boston, as his team’s points per 100 possessions actually dip when he’s on the floor.

This race is far from decided, but on a Hawks team exceeding expectations, Hunter’s ability to thrive in a more demanding sixth-man role has been crucial. His all-around contributions make him my pick for Sixth Man of the Year right now.

Most Improved Player - Tyler Herro

Franz Wagner was the guy for this award, and our 30-1 pick for him to win it was looking fantastic a quarter into the season. Unfortunately, his campaign was cut short when he tore his right oblique, ending his Most Improved Player hopes. Enter Tyler Herro, who is carving out a case for himself in a way that contrasts sharply with how Tyrese Maxey won the award last season.

I took issue with Maxey winning over Coby White because, in my view, Maxey didn’t truly evolve as a player, he simply just took on a bigger offensive load after James Harden’s departure. His efficiency actually dipped, while his scoring numbers increased. Herro’s case this season is the opposite. Despite his offensive load increasing by just 0.9 and his time of possession just 1% according to Thinking Basketball, his numbers and impact have seen a significant rise.

All of Herro’s base stats are up compared to last year, and his true shooting percentage has climbed as well. The standout metric, though, is his Box Plus-Minus, which has improved by +2.4, the largest jump of any player in contention for the award. Most importantly, Herro has been the offensive engine for a Miami team that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency this season, a dramatic improvement from their 21st ranking a year ago with a very similar roster.

Herro’s growth in efficiency and impact, while having a similar load, makes him the current frontrunner for Most Improved Player in my eyes.

Coach of the Year - Kenny Atkinson

Sure, Kenny Atkinson inherited a team loaded with talent, but that talent came with challenges -- namely, overlapping skill sets among the stars that made it difficult to fully optimize the roster. Enter Atkinson, who has led the Cavaliers to the best record in the NBA through the first third of the season. The key to their success? The offensive adjustments he’s implemented.

I’ve written extensively about these changes earlier in the season, and I’d love for you to check that out. But to sum it up: Atkinson has found a way to unlock Evan Mobley in ways that weren’t being utilized before. As a result, the Cavaliers now boast the leagues top-ranked offense, something that felt almost inconceivable with this group just a year ago.

And while the offense has taken a giant leap forward, the defense has remained strong. Atkinson’s ability to elevate the offense without bleeding value on defense is exactly what the Cavaliers needed to unlock, and unless this team experiences a significant collapse, he should remain the frontrunner for Coach of the Year throughout the season.

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Look Out For Coming Up

Jimmy Butler or De'Aaron Fox Trade

This year's trade deadline is shaping up to be much more exciting and impactful than 2024's dud. While plenty of names are likely to be floated, few players truly have the ability to change a teams fortunes overnight, but Jimmy Butler and De’Aaron Fox are two such players. Both have proven their skills translate to postseason success, and both can carry a heavy offensive load for teams looking to take the next step.

Butler to Golden State is an intriguing idea. He’s a player who you could see integrated into the Warriors system while providing an individual shot-creation element they sorely lack.

On the other hand, Fox would be an ideal fit for teams like Houston or Orlando. These defensively-minded squads wouldn’t need to worry about Fox as defensive liability, given he's solid on that end, while his offensive abilities -- especially his three-level scoring --would transform their attacks. Fox has already shown he can be the engine of a high-powered offense, and teams like this desperate for a dynamic point guard would benefit greatly from his addition.

I’m fascinated to see if either of these players gets moved at the deadline, and if so, where they might land.

Can the Wolves Turn This Around?

We touched on this in the preview for their game, but it’s no secret: the Timberwolves have been a mess this season. After just one game, it already felt like something wasn’t quite clicking with their new core, though it seemed premature to dive too deeply into concerns at the time. But now, 28 games in? It’s clear it’s not working.

The absence of Karl-Anthony Towns looms large. As we’re now seeing, Towns sacrificed a lot to make things work in Minnesota, and replacing him with someone who isn’t built for sacrifice has thrown off their dynamic. Anthony Edwards is taking far more threes, and while it’s easy to justify it as a numbers game, the lack of floor spacing without Towns is evident. Donte DiVincenzo has been a disappointment as somebody who was supposed to help in that area.

Mike Conley looks like age is catching up to him, and it’s leaving a massive playmaking void on this roster. Edwards is brilliant but he is clearly not a point guard who’s built to set up other. While a true point guard isn’t likely to be walking through that door, the team needs to make up for the deficiency in that area in other ways.

What this team needs is more connective pieces, players like Kyle Anderson from last season. With Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle not being natural facilitators, the offense lacks the "glue" that helps bridge their individual talents into a cohesive unit. Adding players who can serve as the connective tissue -- making quick reads, facilitating ball movement, and complementing the stars -- should be a priority.

Rudy Gobert also complicates things offensively. While he’s an elite defensive anchor, his limitations on offense -- both as a scorer and a passer -- make it difficult for the team to reach its full potential. Perhaps this roster will always have a ceiling with a center like Gobert, but improving the supporting cast around the edges could help the Wolves better replicate the balance and chemistry they had last season.

I’d suggest trading Randle, but I know that’s not likely due to apron restrictions. If that’s not happening and your starting frontcourt is Randle and Gobert offensively, I have my doubts for sure.

Are the Pistons Playoff Bound!?

The Pistons have quietly become competitive again this season and currently sit in the final play-in spot a third of the way through the season. Cade Cunningham has taken a much-anticipated leap, finally surrounded by NBA-level shooters for the first time in his career. Detroit isn’t going anywhere as far as a playoff run, but it’s conceivable that they can sneak into the play-in and then, who knows?

This is a team worth keeping an eye on over the next couple months leading up to the trade deadline checkpoint. If they are still sitting in a play-in spot by the deadline maybe they will keep their veterans around for the remainder of the season and have some fun down the stretch.