Is Franz Wagner Orlando's Best Player?

Daniel Waddleton

Dec 1, 2024

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The Franz Wagner Experience

Franz vs Paolo

FORMER FIRST OVERALL pick Paolo Banchero has clearly been handed the keys to the city in Orlando, and appears well positioned to be the face of the franchise for years to come.

In just two full seasons, it’s hard to argue the results: Banchero captured Rookie of the Year honors, earned an All-Star selection, and helped lead the Magic back to the playoffs. Now being 2 ½ years since his arrival, Orlando has risen from lottery obscurity to genuine NBA relevancy.

While Banchero has garnered the most credit for Orlando’s upward trajectory, it’s impossible to overlook the role general manager Anthony Parker has played in constructing this impressive young roster. Or the job head coach Jamahl Mosley has done maximizing the team’s potential on the court.

What I'm getting at is that the Magic’s success has been a collective effort, with credit deserved in many places. Heck, I'd argue Jalen Suggs is the heart and soul of this young core.

But what if I were to suggest that above all, the single person who deserves the most credit for Orlando’s upward trajectory is none of the above. What if I suggest its fourth year forward Franz Wagner?

Standing at 6’10” with guard-like skills, Wagner is an extremely versatile player. Last year, I wrote about him as one of the players I was most excited to watch heading into 2023-24, largely because of his unique ability to fill in gaps depending on the teams needs based on lineups.

It’s no surprise that Wagner has consistently posted impressive on/off numbers, never falling below +5.3 in any season since entering the league, a number that consistently keeps him in the 80th percentile or higher among forwards league-wide.

This season Wagner has been faced with a new task, embracing the largest offensive burden of his career with Banchero's sidelined—and he’s thriving.

After starting 0-4 with Banchero out while the team tried to find their new identity during a tough road trip, the Magic have since ripped off 11 wins in 12 games, and Wagner has been the catalyst. Over these 16 games, Wagner is averaging 25.4 points and 6.5 assists, leading the Magic to an 11-5 record during the stretch.

His advanced stats have been just as impressive. Andy Bailey, a NBA Twitter analyst, has this cool metric called the "Huge Nerd Index" (HNI), which ranks NBA players with 200+ minutes played by their average rank across six premier catch-all advanced stats. Wagner ranks 6th on the list, trailing only Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Davis.

I'll dive into some Paolo vs Franz and make a case for Franz showing signals of being the better player, but first I want to just highlight some of what’s made Franz so lethal this year.

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The Full Franz Wagner Experience

Shooting

It all starts with the three-point shooting—Wagner seems to have regained his confidence in that shot. Need proof? Would someone lacking confidence in their three-ball attempt a shot like this with the game on the line?

Wagner is hitting both catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble threes at essentially the same clip (32-33%), but what’s particularly encouraging is how in rhythm he looks taking his pull-up threes. Take a look at these two similar possessions against the 76ers running two man game with his brother Mo Wagner, attacking Guerschon Yabusele.

Driving/Finishing

Moving closer to the basket, while Wagner isn’t the quickest or most explosive player, he’s an incredibly effective driver. His understanding of angles allows him to consistently get defenders on his hip and maintain an advantage. His body control on drives is outstanding, making it tough for defenders to stop him on his way to the rim.

It's not shocking that over half his shot attempts per game are within eight feet of the rim, or that he's hitting these attempts at a 58% clip.

Wanger is also super crafty near the basket. The euro step has been a signature move for him since he's entered the league. Watch on this play Wagner waits for Suggs to set that brush screen to give him space to attack the defender straight downhill. He attacks hard left and the second the defender has turned his body to the left handed drive, he steps over him with the euro and floats in a pretty two points.

Here's a good example of him maneuvering through traffic near the rim. You see on this empty side dribble handoff Franz be able to put Cam Reddish in jail, getting downhill, and then shift from one side of him to the other. This is important because it now gives Wagner a better angle to attack Anthony Davis.

He shows the ball towards the middle of the floor, getting Davis to bite, then to just slide between him and Reddish for the layup on the other side.

Passing

It hasn't just been scoring for Franz, he's been able to show off his passing chops more this season in an increased role. Here's a play where he puts his defender in jail coming off a screen and gets deep in the paint to draw that corner defender. LaMelo Ball is sleeping a little bit and doesn't sink to try to play both, and Franz sprays the ball out for an open three.

Here Franz handles the high ball pressure and is able to beat his defender off the dribble. On his way downhill, Jett Howard does a nice job drawing the lowest defender with his backdoor cut against Brandon Miller, and it becomes a Wagner brother connection on the lob dunk.

Nice little pick and roll possession here. The Wizards are playing Franz in a drop, so the Magic set the ball screen high to create tons of room to operate. Bub Carrington as the weakside defender rotates to tag the roller. Franz fires the ball into the opposite corner for an open look at a three.

Here's two good examples of intelligence combined with ability in playmaking here. First clip, Wagner receives the entry pass in the post and immediately faces up. He recognizes that Jalen Duren wants to stay in the paint to help but will need to move to the strong side block to avoid a defensive three-second violation.

Wagner patiently waits until Duren steps out of the paint, which forces Tobias Harris to sink all the way down to prevent a dunk from Goga Bitadze. With perfect timing, Franz delivers a one handed precise pass to the opposite corner, hitting the shooter’s pocket for a clean three-pointer.

Second clip, the best passers in the league have a way of "manipulating" defenses to create good looks. Here Wagner comes off this screen and is completely free. Jonathan Isaacs's defender Ryan Dunn stays at the nail to defend Wagner when he realizes Grayson Allen is nowhere to be found behind the screen.

Now Monte Morris is all alone trying to defend both the roller and the corner. Franz fakes like he's going to throw it to the corner to get Morris to shift that way, and then Isaac easily slides right behind him for the free dunk.

And how about some transition passing. After showcasing his great hands defensively, Franz turns his steal into easy points. He stares down Cole Anthony rim running and when he first picks up his dribble, almost motions like he's about to fire the ball down the lane. Miller and Martin don't communicate in transition, both following Anthony, to where Franz smoothly redirects his one-handed pass to the corner for an open three.

This Action Orlando Loves

When studying some film to write this piece, I saw this action countless times in the Magic's offense. Orlando doesn't just want to use Franz as a primary ball handler, and his basketball IQ comes in to play to help him get easy buckets.

The Magic love to run this little triangle action where Wagner will often set a flare or back pick as basically a decoy, to then seal off the defender he is screening to get an easy slip to the rim for a bucket.

Here's three different examples.

Next time you watch a Magic game, look out for this triangle action I'll guarantee they run it.

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Franz vs Paolo

So in the deepest corners of NBA discussions, this idea has been bubbling for a while: Franz Wagner might be the Orlando Magic’s most impactful player. Paolo Banchero has consistently posted more impressive raw numbers, but much of that stems from having the ball in his hands far more often. Despite his production, Banchero has struggled with efficiency, and the Magic’s offense hasn’t excelled when he’s on the court.

If you judge players purely by how the team performs with them on the floor versus off it, you’d likely conclude that Wagner has been the better player. Last season, Wagner's per-100-possessions on/off split was +5.3, compared to Banchero's -9.1. During Banchero’s rookie season, the trend was similar: Wagner posted a remarkable +9.9, while Banchero was at -4.

Some may suggest that Banchero is placed in tougher lineups, often tasked with carrying bench units, which partially explains the disparity. While there may be some truth to that, the gap is too significant to just ignore.

This season, Wagner has stepped into the high-usage role Banchero occupied last year with his current absence. Wagner's offensive load—an estimate of the number of a possessions a player is 'directly involved' in on offense every 100 possessions—has increased from 37.9 to 50.3, and his time of possession rising from 23% to 30%.

The result? Wagner’s on/off rating has skyrocketed to +18.7, landing him in the 98th percentile among wing players. The Magic's offense thrives when he's on the court, and craters when he goes to the bench.

For context, last season Banchero had an offensive load of 45.3, yet his on/off rating was the -9.1 number we discussed earlier. This large contrast suggests Wagner’s ability to elevate the offense in a similar role is far superior.

Not buying the whole on/off thing? Fair enough, let's dive into some advanced numbers.

Let’s examine usage rate, a common statistic for assessing a player’s offensive burden, alongside Player Efficiency Rating (PER). While PER isn’t a perfect metric, it can provide valuable context here.

• 2024-25 Franz Wagner: Usage – 30.4 | PER – 23.3

• 2023-24 Paolo Banchero: Usage – 29.7 | PER – 17.3

The difference is clear: Franz is not only handling a similar offensive workload to Paolo’s last season but doing so with significantly greater efficiency.

If PER isn’t your preferred stat, let’s turn to one of my favorites: Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). VORP quantifies a player’s overall contribution compared to a hypothetical replacement-level player and the number accumulates over the season, rewarding sustained impact.

• 2023-24 Paolo Banchero in 80 games: VORP – 2.3 (48th in the league)

• 2024-25 Franz Wagner through 21 games: VORP – 1.5 (5th in the league)

In just a quarter of the season, Wagner is already sniffing Paolo's season total from last year, and is swimming with the elite's in VORP for the 2024-25 season, highlighting his exceptional all-around impact.

Critics of Banchero’s advanced stats often argue that his inefficiency stems from the lack of offensive help around him, forcing him into tough shots and turnovers. While there’s validity to this, Wagner’s current performance disproves the idea that it’s impossible to excel in that context—he’s doing it right now. It also helps that Wagner has a defensive edge between the two, which further boosts his advanced metrics.

In all fairness, this Magic supporting cast is improved compared to last season. Offseason additions like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have helped the offense, as they are five points better per 100 possessions on that end when KCP is on the court this season.

Paolo himself was off to a nice start this season and maybe if he didn't get hurt, he was prepared to put all these questions to bed.

And this is where I want to be clear, I don't want this to be an anti-Banchero take. Paolo has immense potential, perhaps even a higher ceiling than Wagner. At 6’10 and 250 pounds, with guard-like mobility and the strength to play small-ball five minutes, Banchero’s lineup versatility and physical tools are unmatched. But early in his career, he’s been miscast as an offensive engine by necessity, producing inefficient stats on a struggling offense (22nd in the league last season).

The ideal scenario? Banchero returns, adapts to a more complementary role, and forms a dynamic 1-2 punch with Wagner. If their shared court minutes improve from a current +2.8 net rating, this Magic team could reach new heights when it comes to the postseason.

Ultimately, this all has been a long-winded way of saying Wagner should maintain a larger offensive role even after Banchero returns. Doing so might unlock the full potential of this young and promising Magic team.