Cutting the Fat Off the Season Pt. 1 – The 14 Teams That Matter

Daniel Waddleton

Feb 18, 2025

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WE HAVE ARRIVED at the home stretch of the NBA regular season. Rosters are finalized, and teams are shifting into high gear, looking to find their best form as the playoffs loom. With that, it's time to cut the fat, separating the real teams from those just playing out the schedule.

I've identified the 14 teams you should begin to familiar yourself with down the stretch, each a legitimate shot at winning at least one playoff series. I’ve ranked them by title chances, though with recent significant roster shake-ups (Lakers, Mavericks, Warriors), some projection was required. These rankings aren't set in stone.

And so, our journey begins in the Northeast.

1. Boston Celtics

Record: 39-16 (2nd in East)

Offensive Rating: 4th

Defensive Rating: 5th

Net Rating: 3rd

Starting Lineup: White – Holiday – Brown – Tatum – Porzingis (-4.0 in 591 possessions)

While the Boston Celtics haven’t been quite as dominant as last season, they should still be the favorites until someone proves otherwise in a playoff series. Among all the teams on this list, Boston is the one without a glaring Achilles heel. The only real critique? At times, they don’t play with full effort, settling for bad shots instead of pushing their advantage.

Could those lapses in intensity and attention to detail hurt them in the postseason when games tighten up and they haven’t built the same championship-level habits as last year? Absolutely. But I’d rather bet on their ability to flip the switch than overreact to something that feels more hypothetical than real. When Boston has wanted to turn it on this season, they have no problem doing so.

The numbers back it up: the Celtics rank first in the league in offensive rating against top-eight defenses. When challenged, they respond.

This team is a nightmare matchup when they aren’t settling. Just on the surface, they almost always have five players on the floor who can all dribble, pass, and shoot -- meaning there’s nowhere to hide a high-usage offensive player who coasts on defense.

Drop coverage is ineffective against them because of Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford’s elite pick-and-pop ability, forcing defenses to either switch or double. If a big can’t hold up on switches, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will attack downhill. If guards aren’t physical enough, Porzingis dominates mismatches in the post.

Doubling isn’t much better, as Boston has the collective IQ to punish it. Every player can hit three's, attack closeouts, and make the next pass against an advantage. There never seems to be a good answer, which is likely why they rank second in the league in points per possession in half-court offense.

To beat this team, you need the personnel to execute a switch-heavy defensive scheme. Ironically, the best team equipped to defend them is Boston itself. That’s transitions us into what makes them the best team in the league in my opinion, not only is this an elite offense, but all their rotation players also don’t leak value defensively.

The front office deserves immense credit for building a roster that fits together seamlessly. Some teams stack big-name talent but struggle because of redundant skill sets. The Celtics, on the other hand, maximize every player.

Tatum and Brown can thrive as high-usage scorers because of who they are surrounded by. Derrick White is invaluable with his elite defense, knockdown catch-and-shoot ability, secondary playmaking, and just knack for the little things. Jrue Holiday is in an ideal role as a defensive Swiss Army knife with less offensive responsibility than in the past. Porzingis and Horford enhance the entire lineup by spacing the floor while remaining strong defensive anchors, and Porzingis specifically forces teams to rethink their entire defensive approach because of how he punishes switches.

Even Payton Pritchard, despite his defensive limitations, thrives in this system. Averaging 13.8 points on an ultra-efficient 63.4% true shooting, he can focus entirely on being a scoring spark off the bench because the rest of the team is so strong defensively.

I think the thing I’m most excited for this postseason is watching Boston go up against other high-level teams in a seven-game series. Seeing the chess matches unfold against a team with so few weaknesses will be fascinating. Last year, the Celtics weren’t truly tested due to a mix of injuries across the East and meeting a Mavericks team in the finals they matched up really well against. This time around, I’m eager to see them in real high-level battles, seeing which defenders they deploy on which stars, how teams try to counter their iso-heavy drive and kick offense.

If I had to bet my life on a finals pick right now, give me Boston.

. . .

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 44-10 (1st in West)

Offensive Rating: 6th

Defensive Rating: 1st

Net Rating: 1st

Starting Lineup: Gilgeous-Alexander – Dort – Williams – Holmgren – Hartenstein (+25.4 in 66 possessions)

OKC has been the best regular-season team in my eyes, and as my preseason title pick, I’m still optimistic in that choice. Their case starts with a historically dominant defense.

The Thunder don’t just rank first in defensive rating, they’re 10.4 points better than league average and 3.8 points ahead of the second-best team. In the golden era of spacing and offensive skill, where defense can feel impossible at times, they may have built the blueprint for modern defense.

Though players like Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Chet Holmgren are all All-Defensive caliber players, this defense goes deeper then just names. The first thing that stands out is their sheer defensive activity. They lead the league in deflections and steals, constantly disrupting passing lanes and pressuring ball-handlers into mistakes.

What makes them truly special is their “horizontal rim protection.” Instead of relying on a traditional, slow-footed shot-blocker to protector the rim, they rarely even allow teams to get to there, leading the NBA in fewest points allowed in the paint. They swarm the ball aggressively helping on drives, and force opponents into tough decisions before they even reach the lane.

This allows them to prioritize defensive versatility and offense in their center rotation.

It’s also incredibly difficult for stars to take over against them. Dort at the point of attack, combined with aggressive help, makes isolation scoring a nightmare. If stars shift to pick-and-roll, OKC excels at blitzing, tagging rollers, and scrambling back into position better than any team in the league.

Matchup-wise, they’re built to counter anyone. Against teams like Boston, they have switch-heavy personnel that can match up across the board, with wings like Williams and switchable bigs like Holmgren still providing rim protection when needed.

Against teams like Denver, they can go big with Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, using one to guard Nikola Jokic while the other roams as a help defender. Holmgren's versatility is so important because he can defend fours on one end, and space the floor or handle the ball on the other end.

Of course, every defense has trade-offs. OKC concedes a fair number of open threes, but they live with that variance, banking on their relentless pressure and chaotic nature of the games they create to wear down shooters.

The key postseason question is their offense. They rank sixth in offensive rating, but playoff basketball presents a different challenge. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32.5 points and 6.1 assists per game on 63.9% true shooting will translate, but what happens when he’s off the floor or isn’t hitting his mid-range jumpers at the absurd clip he's used too?

Williams and Holmgren are skilled offensively, but have shown some warts in the 2024 postseason. Hartenstein adds connective tissue when used as a hub, but he’s more of a complementary piece than a driver of efficient offense.

Their reliance on SGA is clear. When he’s on the floor, they score 123.1 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off, that number plummets to 109.5. I hoped they’d add another creator at the deadline, but when you’re 44-10, it’s hard to argue with continuity.

One other smaller concern is they don’t punish defensive liabilities like Boston does. Their offense runs heavily through SGA, and they feature multiple defense-first players who's offensive role is just primarily space the floor, making it easier for opponents to hide weak defenders.

The formula to beating OKC? Out-executing them. Their youth shows at times, their offense can lose balance without SGA, and they aren’t an elite three-point shooting team. If an opponent can sustain scoring against their defense and force them into a half court game, they’re vulnerable.

That said, they’re the second-best team in the playoffs, and if they can play their best basketball to date this spring, my preseason pick might just be right.

. . .

3. Denver Nuggets

Record: 36-19 (3rd in West)

Offensive Rating: 3rd

Defensive Rating: 16th

Net Rating: 6th

Starting Lineup: Murray – Braun – Porter Jr. – Gordon – Jokić (+14.0 in 553 possessions)

The team started 11-9, and there were legitimate concerns about where they stood. Had this iteration of the Nuggets already peaked? Was it time for a drastic move to maximize Nikola Jokić’s prime? Turns out, all they needed was Jamal Murray to get healthy and for their chemistry to build. Since December 9th, they’ve gone 24-9, ranking fourth in net rating leaguewide.

Jokic remains the best player in the world, averaging 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game on an absurd 66.6% true shooting. He’s either first or second in nearly every advanced metric (alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), and the Nuggets outscore teams by 13.5 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor.

When you have a player this good, you give yourself a real shot in any playoff series. And now that Murray looks more like himself in the second third of the season, Denver suddenly feels like a team capable of winning another title.

They pose a unique challenge for any opponent. Jokic is an unsolvable problem -- he’ll beat you however you choose to defend him. If teams opt to guard him one-on-one, we’ve seen him drop massive scoring outbursts. If they send doubles and try to recover, he manipulates defenses to death, picking them apart with his passing. Denver ranks third in the league in half-court points per possession, ensuring they’ll generate quality looks whenever Jokic is on the floor.

The real question is whether they can get enough stops. Despite ranking 16th in defense this season, they’ve shown a tendency to elevate their play in the postseason, piecing together just enough resistance to complement their elite offense.

There’s data to support this. Over the last two postseasons, they finished sixth and fourth, respectively, in defensive rating among playoff teams. This season, they rank eighth in defensive rating against top-eight offenses, which suggests they can reach a necessary threshold when locked in against elite competition.

Having them ranked third, I clearly think highly of their title chances. The two things that could do them however, in offenses that relentlessly attack the rim and defenses that bring extreme physicality.

As great as Jokic is, he isn’t a rim protector, and teams that pressure the rim at a high level have given Denver problems. Without an elite shot-blocker to erase mistakes, opponents who can generate consistent rim pressure will find success.

The other issue is their struggle against super physical teams. Minnesota, for example, has given them trouble over the last two seasons. The Wolves’ defensive physicality has made players like Michael Porter Jr. look like a shell of themselves, and Murray had some rough performances against them in last year’s playoffs.

The only other concern is spacing beyond their stars. Outside of Murray, Porter Jr., and Jokic, Denver lacks reliable three-point shooting. In a playoff series, opponents will try to dictate where plays finish, forcing guys like Christian Braun or Russell Westbrook to prove they can hit threes at volume despite respectable regular-season percentages. Denver has countered this with elite cutting and off-ball movement, but in a playoff setting -- where teams scout them for two weeks straight -- those actions become more predictable.

No one wants to see Denver in a playoff series because of the Jokic factor -- he alone makes them a terrifying opponent. When their supporting cast plays at a high enough level, they’re nearly impossible to defend. But they aren’t invincible, and the right team could exploit their weaknesses. Time will tell if they have enough to get back to the promised land.

. . .

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 44-10 (1st in East)

Offensive Rating: 1st

Defensive Rating: 8th

Net Rating: 2nd

Starting Lineup: Garland – Mitchell – Hunter – Mobley – Allen (+20.0 in 20 possessions)

If you haven’t been paying close attention this season, you might not realize this isn’t the same Cavaliers team from the past couple of years. Despite keeping the same core that struggled in past playoff runs, Cleveland has completely transformed its offensive philosophy under first-year head coach Kenny Atkinson, leading to the best offense in basketball this season.

The Cavaliers rank first in offensive rating, and it all starts with an increased pace. They’ve jumped from 24th to 7th in pace, allowing them to attack cross-matches and unset defenses more frequently. Evan Mobley has been one of the biggest beneficiaries, using his impressive ball-handling and body control for a player his size to exploit these opportunities.

But this isn’t just a transition-heavy team. The Cavaliers have been just as lethal in the half-court, ranking first in points per possession against set defenses. A big part of that success comes from a more diverse offensive approach, with their bigs playing a greater role as offensive hubs. This prevents defenses from sagging off Cleveland’s non-shooters and creates more space on the floor.

Donovan Mitchell’s usage and overall numbers are down, but that shouldn’t be a concern, it’s made the team better. The shift has allowed Darius Garland to thrive with more on-ball creation, and by diversifying their attack, the Cavs have become far more difficult to guard.

This clip encapsulates everything: The defense shifts to defend the pick-and-roll, the ball gets skipped to the opposite elbow, that turns into what looks like a quick DHO, Mitchell's gravity free's up Mobley on the reject and it's a dunk before the Wizards even know what happened.

As far as halfcourt scoring, it's also worth mentioning that the Cavs are ripping the net off on three's. Cleveland leads the NBA in three-point percentage at 39.9% and ranks fourth in three-point rate.

And if you haven’t already, it’s time to get familiar with Ty Jerome. A former journeyman, he’s found a real home in Cleveland, emerging as the team’s third on-ball creator. Atkinson’s system has unlocked his game, and his presence gives the Cavs another steady offensive option. When he’s on the floor, the offense hums at 124.1 points per 100 possessions, a testament to how seamlessly he fits within their revamped attack.

Defensively, Cleveland remains strong, ranking inside the top eight. The biggest playoff question will be whether their defense can stay afloat when both Garland and Mitchell are on the court together. There’s also the concern of their double-big lineups. While they enhance rim protection, can they survive against teams that force their bigs to defend in space?

To help with that, they acquired De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline. While he may not be quite as strong defensively as his reputation suggests, he’s a big wing and exactly the type of player who could be valuable in a series against Boston or New York. They now have much more flexibility on that end.

Of course, while this offense looks playoff-ready, they’ll still need to prove it when the time comes.

The Cavaliers deserve your respect, and I suggest you give it to them now, or risk looking foolish when the playoffs arrive.