Cutting the Fat Off the Season Pt. 2 – The 14 Teams That Matter

Daniel Waddleton

Feb 19, 2024

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5. Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 32-20 (5th in West)

Offensive Rating: 9th

Defensive Rating: 17th

Net Rating: 13th

Starting Lineup: Dončić – Reaves – Finney-Smith – James – Hayes (+62.1 in 16 possessions)

I’ve written a ton about the “Luka Lakers” over the past two weeks, so if you want to check out my post-trade reaction piece, you can find it [here], and if you’re interested in their Western Conference playoff viability, that’s [here].

I’m going to keep this short and sweet because, quite frankly, I don’t know how much more I can write about this team until we actually see them play in a game that isn't against the 13-win Utah Jazz.

The strength of this team is clearly going to be shot creation and playmaking. In a playoff series, they will likely have at least two of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James on the floor at all times. These players will be able to generate advantages for the offense constantly, while also ensuring there’s always a release valve when teams overcommit to stopping one of them.

Combine that with a supporting cast of play finishers on the wings and Jaxson Hayes, who -- despite some limitations -- will be an effective offensive piece as a screener and vertical threat alongside Luka and LeBron. It’s going to be incredibly difficult for defenses to even force this team into tough shots, never mind actually get stops.

Defense will be the biggest question mark, and there are two sides to the story.

On one hand, Anthony Davis went down with injury on January 28th. Since then, with all the same defensive pieces except for a Luka-for-Max-Christie swap, the Lakers have ranked fifth in defensive rating. That stretch has included games against high-level offensive teams like the Knicks, Pacers, and Warriors.

Their “small-ball” lineups aren’t exactly small -- most players on the court are 6’6” or taller, and guys like LeBron, Rui Hachimura, and Luka have stocky, physical builds. They’ve proven that this switch-heavy, physical style of defense can be successful when everyone is locked in and playing on a string.

Now, the counterpoint is without Christie and Davis, the Lakers have lost their best point-of-attack defender and their best rim protector.

This team is now expected to leak value at the rim without any traditional rim protector outside of Jaxson Hayes. That defensive gap will have to be replaced collectively with strong help defense. They’ve done that recently, but they haven’t faced teams like Denver or Minnesota, who will relentlessly attack the paint and score at the rim.

I also worry about quick, twitchy scoring guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Ja Morant and how the Lakers choose to defend them. Those would be huge Gabe Vincent series, as he now slides in as the best point-of-attack defender on the roster. But playing Vincent more means cutting into Reaves’ minutes, which would hurt the offense.

The Lakers are the biggest wildcard by far. They have so much talent, but we just don’t know exactly how this will look in high-level playoff matchups.

However, I’m on the optimistic side. I think this team will be so difficult to guard and will be able to patch things together defensively well enough to win four straight rounds.

Denver would be their worst matchup because of Jokic, but any team that scores efficiently at the rim should give them some problems.

. . .

6. New York Knicks

Record: 36-18 (6th in East)

Offensive Rating: 2nd

Defensive Rating: 18th

Net Rating: 5th

Starting Lineup: Brunson – Bridges – Hart – Anunoby – Towns (+5.9 in 1,639 possessions)

The Knicks are going to be one of the most fascinating teams in the postseason this year. On paper, their starting lineup, along with Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson off the bench, gives them as good and versatile of a seven-man rotation as you’ll find.

Jalen Brunson (26.1 PPG) and Karl-Anthony Towns (24.7 PPG) spearhead the team, driving the league’s second-ranked offense. The Knicks lead the NBA in pick-and-roll points per possession, primarily because a Brunson-Towns action is nearly impossible to stop given their skill sets.

With Towns fully optimized as a small-ball five surrounded by play finishers, he’s having the most impressive offensive season of his career. When he and Brunson share the floor, the Knicks score 123.4 points per 100 possessions, an elite number.

The problem? They give back almost as much on the other end.

Towns has struggled as a defensive anchor, especially in pick-and-roll coverage, which explains why Minnesota was willing to sacrifice some of his offense in order to pair him with a true rim protector. Brunson, while a tough competitor, isn’t an ideal point-of-attack defender. When teams put him and Towns in action together, it’s been a disaster, contributing to the Knicks allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions with both on the floor. Not ideal.

The optimism lies in their two-way wing depth, arguably the most important archetype for a postseason run.

Mikal Bridges has proven in the past he can defend the point of attack at a high level, flattening out drives and navigating screens well, while providing secondary creation offensively.

OG Anunoby is an elite defender and an efficient play finisher.

Josh Hart brings value everywhere -- rebounding, rim pressure, defense, and underrated playmaking.

With this personnel, you’d want to believe they can figure it out in the playoffs, but they haven’t risen to the occasion against great teams. They currently rank 23rd in defense against top-eight offenses, a troubling sign for a squad with title aspirations.

They’ll need an all-in defensive effort to take down a team like Boston, who has torched them in every matchup. A healthy Mitchell Robinson could provide much-needed rim protection, and allow Towns to shift up to the four in certain lineups. They may also experiment with OG defending some centers, as he’s proven capable in the post. That could help them switch pick-and-roll actions involving the center and force teams to run pick-and-roll with non-bigs if they want to target Towns.

At the end of the day, this offense is more than capable of winning a championship. Yet if the Knicks can’t fix their defensive issues, getting past a team like Boston -- who can ruthlessly exploit the Brunson-Towns pairing -- will be a tall task.

. . .

7. Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 36-18 (2nd in West)

Offensive Rating: 5th

Defensive Rating: 7th

Net Rating: 4th

Starting Lineup: Morant – Bane – Wells – Jackson Jr. – Edey (+33.7 in 291 possessions)

They have been a regular-season juggernaut, as they so often have been with this iteration of the team. Currently sitting second in the West, they rank fifth in offense, seventh in defense, and fourth in net rating. What more can you ask for?

Yet, despite all of that, I have them ranked seventh (and honestly, I could have put them as low as 10th). The reason? They’ve routinely underperformed in the postseason with this core, and the issue has specifically been on offense.

The last two times Memphis finished second in the West, their offense crumbled in the playoffs.

• In 2022-23, they posted a 114.7 offensive rating during the regular season, only for it to plummet to 102.8 in the playoffs.

• The year before, their 114.3 regular-season rating dropped to 109.8 in the postseason.

It’s not uncommon for offense to dip in the playoffs, but when your team relies heavily on transition, that drop-off can be brutal. The postseason slows the game down, and Memphis has struggled to generate efficient half-court offense when teams take away their transition game.

Now, there are reasons for optimism this season.

Memphis has developed a unique offensive identity, currently on the cutting edge of NBA offense. In a league dominated by pick-and-roll and dribble hand-offs, the Grizzlies run the least amount of both by a significant margin.

Beyond their dangerous transition attack, Memphis relies heavily on isolation offense and spacing created by their motion-heavy system.

Here’s what I wrote in a Starting Five piece earlier this season:

"The Grizzlies' offense is built around drives and spacing, allowing unique isolation players like Morant and Jackson to attack massive gaps in the lane. Meanwhile, their teammates move in sync around them, almost orbiting on a string, adjusting their positions based on the direction of the drive. This constant movement keeps help defenders occupied; and if they linger in help, their man has already relocated for an open look."

It’s been an incredibly effective strategy. When someone like Zach Edey is on the floor, they’ll still run traditional pick-and-roll, but this offensive system gives them another way to attack defenses, especially teams that rely on rim protection to make up for weak perimeter defense.

The big question: Can teams find ways to neutralize it in a playoff series?

When a team is doing something innovative, it can be difficult to prepare for in the middle of the season. But when you’re locked in a series for two weeks, good coaching staffs may find ways to start chipping away at the advantage.

The other major thing they can count on is the emergence of Jaren Jackson Jr., who is having a First-Team All-NBA caliber season.

Jackson is averaging 23 points per night on 59.6% true shooting, developing into an elite isolation scorer. He’s also cut down on his defensive fouling, which likely explains why the team is 8.3 points better per 100 possessions defensively when he’s on the floor, the best mark of his career.

The advanced numbers love him -- he ranks eighth in EPM and 15th in LEBRON. Simply put, he has become one of the best players in the league.

You combine the offensive evolution, Jackson's leap, and the always-reliable Memphis advantage of being one of the deepest teams in the league year in and year out -- with the variety of playable archetypes they can deploy depending on the matchup -- and there’s reason to believe this year could be different.

Yet until we see it, I’m always going to be a little hesitant. It doesn’t help my hesitation that out of the 14 teams featured in this mid-season classic, Memphis ranks 13th in Net Rating against top-10 teams.

If they ended up in a 2-7 matchup like Minnesota, or a healthy Dallas, I wouldn't be hesitant to pull the trigger on a plus odds upset bet.

. . .

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 31-25 (7th in West)

Offensive Rating: 14th 

Defensive Rating: 6th 

Net Rating: 8th  

Starting Lineup: Edwards – DiVincenzo – McDaniels – Randle – Gobert (-6.1 in 336 poss)

I’m starting to get a little Wolves-curious. This team has its flaws -- no true point guard outside of an aging Mike Conley, a high-usage star who isn’t a great playmaker, and some less-than-ideal spacing. Their center position is also a constant tradeoff between offense and defense, with Rudy Gobert providing elite rim protection but struggling with his hands and finishing plays, as opposed to an option like Naz Reid who’s an elite offensive player but not an anchor of a good defense.

Yet, this team poses a real challenge for some of the top contenders. They’re loaded with physical, high-level defenders, and as we saw last postseason, when the refs let them play, the Wolves can be suffocating. They’ve done it all season to Denver, and right before the All-Star break, we saw them shut down OKC.

With defenders like Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Anthony Edwards, and Jaylen Clark applying ball pressure, they make life miserable for opposing creators. Gobert is still as good a paint-protecting big man as you’ll find, especially when their elite perimeter defenders fight through screens and allow him to thrive as a drop big.

They mauled Phoenix last year, making life really hard on Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. They did the same to Denver, disrupting Jamal Murray and (kind of) Nikola Jokic. The one guy they didn't have an answer for is Luka Doncic, which is why they lost to Dallas last year, and why I’d probably pick the Lakers over them in a series. Aside from that, there’s no team in the West I'd be shocked to see the Wolves beat.

Earlier in the season, I was down on them. They looked disjointed, like they hated playing for each other, and the spacing was a mess. But they’ve turned a corner since January 22nd, ranking fourth in net rating. Guys like McDaniels and Alexander-Walker playing better on the offensive end makes all the difference in the world when you consider what they can do to opposing perimeter players on defense.

Over the full season, they’re fifth in net rating against other top-10 teams. High on this team or not, it's hard to deny they can the best teams a lot of issues throughout a game.

Julius Randle will be a swing piece for them. If you’ve followed me, you know I’ve been very anti-Randle. I talked in the off-season about how DiVincenzo was a way more important return than Randle in the Towns deal. But that doesn’t mean Randle can’t be useful in certain matchups. Against smaller fours, he relentlessly attacks off the dribble and in the post. When locked in defensively, his physicality fits right into the Wolves’ identity.

But what I like a lot about Minnesota is the fact they have Randle insurance. Naz Reid is having the best season of his career and is honestly a better fit with their best five-man lineups. He’s an elite catch-and-shoot threat, steadier with the ball, and plays more within the flow of the offense. When Randle is playing well they can ride him, but they also aren't depending on him to a point where I'd be nervous.

If you want to argue the Wolves are too high because of offense, I don't blame you. The offense will never be perfect, but if you don’t have rim protection, Ant will relentlessly attack you.

They probably won’t get a ton of buzz heading into the playoffs, but the Wolves have the tools to make serious noise and get back to a Western Conference finals depending on how the bracket shakes out.